04/15/13
Stocks were down sharply in morning trading on Friday, but once again the bulls refused to be pushed around and the indices closed strongly. The Dow, which was down 75-points at one point, managed to gain back all of those losses. The other indices saw modest losses.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 154"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.25%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.28%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.35%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.48%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The chart of the S&P 500 hit resistance at the top of its rising trading channel on Thursday and has pulled back since, but the late strength on Friday produced a possible positive reversal day.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq's reversal day was more pronounced but the lighter volume and the overhead resistance may prove to nullify the effect of the reversal day.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I posted this in the Weekly Wrap but if anyone missed it, the Transportation Index is showing some signs of wearing down as we saw a lower high on the first of April and Thursday's peak is threatening to become a second lower high.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The question is, will a lower high be a prelude to lower low which would be a fairly significant drop for the current levels?
Commodities, and particularly gold, sold of sharply on Friday. This commodity chart looks awful but its oversold and near support so a snap back rally could be on its way.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar may influence this as it is trying to find support at its 50-day EMA, and if that holds and the dollar rises, the prices of commodities will have more headwind to deal with.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Gold has been getting clobbered lately and it was down $73 an ounce just on Friday. While I'm not a gold bug and don't currently own any gold, I do trade it occasionally. The price looks enticing here at 2-year lows, although buying here would be trying to catch a falling knife. Unfortunately for anyone who may want to trade it, gold moves quickly and if you wait for it to stabilize you could miss a big part of a snap back rally. I'd be looking for a bottom in gold this week.
Stocks, I don't know. I think if gold does bottom it could be a reaction to a possible pullback in stocks, but we've been saying that for months. And while I am not very bullish right now, overall sentiment is probably way too bearish to see any serious correction. Perhaps it will take a news event like a couple of weak earnings reports from some bellwether companies or a 2nd consecutive weak jobs report, but because of the excessive bearishness out there, it will likely be just another buying opportunity rather than something more serious.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks were down sharply in morning trading on Friday, but once again the bulls refused to be pushed around and the indices closed strongly. The Dow, which was down 75-points at one point, managed to gain back all of those losses. The other indices saw modest losses.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 154"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.25%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.28%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.35%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.48%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The chart of the S&P 500 hit resistance at the top of its rising trading channel on Thursday and has pulled back since, but the late strength on Friday produced a possible positive reversal day.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq's reversal day was more pronounced but the lighter volume and the overhead resistance may prove to nullify the effect of the reversal day.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I posted this in the Weekly Wrap but if anyone missed it, the Transportation Index is showing some signs of wearing down as we saw a lower high on the first of April and Thursday's peak is threatening to become a second lower high.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The question is, will a lower high be a prelude to lower low which would be a fairly significant drop for the current levels?
Commodities, and particularly gold, sold of sharply on Friday. This commodity chart looks awful but its oversold and near support so a snap back rally could be on its way.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar may influence this as it is trying to find support at its 50-day EMA, and if that holds and the dollar rises, the prices of commodities will have more headwind to deal with.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Gold has been getting clobbered lately and it was down $73 an ounce just on Friday. While I'm not a gold bug and don't currently own any gold, I do trade it occasionally. The price looks enticing here at 2-year lows, although buying here would be trying to catch a falling knife. Unfortunately for anyone who may want to trade it, gold moves quickly and if you wait for it to stabilize you could miss a big part of a snap back rally. I'd be looking for a bottom in gold this week.
Stocks, I don't know. I think if gold does bottom it could be a reaction to a possible pullback in stocks, but we've been saying that for months. And while I am not very bullish right now, overall sentiment is probably way too bearish to see any serious correction. Perhaps it will take a news event like a couple of weak earnings reports from some bellwether companies or a 2nd consecutive weak jobs report, but because of the excessive bearishness out there, it will likely be just another buying opportunity rather than something more serious.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
