Bullpen

[Bullitt]

"The market has never closed up 9 days in a row."

The 11th looked like a down day to me be they must be talking about the futures market.

 

[Bullitt]

I don't believe in seasonality, but I believe in Carl.

I have cautiously concluded that a medium-term correction has begun, and that it will continue into a price low around the end of November. This is not an auspicious beginning to the new six-month favorable seasonality period, but there will still be plenty of time to recoup correction losses after the low is in place.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/091030_co.html

 

[Bullitt]

Carl now believes the 20 week cycle low came in November and that an upside breakout is imminent. However, his premonition may end in tears.

Technically, the market is showing solid strength, but the bull market is running strictly on speculation and emotion, and there is virtually no fundamental support under the market. The Dubai event is a good example of the kind of thing that has the potential to start an avalanche of selling. There are probably hundreds of them waiting in the bushes. Taken one at a time, they may only cause a momentary ripple. If too many pop out at one time, it could end in disaster.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/091204_cspot.html

 

[James48843]

Bernanke is talking to the economic club of washington dc right now.


He just started talking about being in a position to begin to raise interest rates.

says the FEDS biggest challenge right now is figuring out when to start raising rates.

 

[James48843]

says "Unclear if recovery will be strong enough to bring down unemployment rate. "


says they are focusing on "stress test" lessons learned to be able to oversee big banks.

says "no firm no matter how large should ever be able to hold America hostage". Goes on to say big banks need higher reserves and more oversight - consolidated supervision.

 

[James48843]

Bernake closes by recapping last year's financial turmoil- "to which we have only recently began recoverying". Said "financial headwinds remain, at some point, however, we will need to (raise rates). " Says "We must solve the problem of too big to fail".

 

[James48843]

Audience Question: Where are rates going?

Answer: Hints rates will remain steady at next weeks open market meeting, but says they'll look at raising rates at a later date.

 

[Bullitt]

More bull food. NYAD line just made a new high this week, and that's not a bearish sign.

View attachment 7591
www.stockcharts.com

 

[Birchtree]

Now that is a pretty picture. Bull market cycles don't end on bad news. They end after very long stretches of good news that make people forget their worries. Up cycle finishes are marked with a four - six month divergence between a top in the advance/decline line and major indexes. That is, the NYSE A/D line has typically been declining half a year before a final top in the major indexes is made. At present, the A/D line just made a new high this week as pointed out by Bullitt. So a top is likely at least four to six months away. The A/D line is not diverting, and it's very rare the price will top without A/D divergence. The market subsurface is in very good shape, as evidenced by the performance of the A/D line. The number of 52 week highs has recently hit their highest level since June 2007 - and I'll say no more - go bulls.

 

[Birchtree]

We did hit the mark today with a close of 1121 on the SPX. The 1120 level is an important technical marker, representing about a 50% fib retracement from the index's October 2007 high to its March low. We'll take out 1125 real soon to be sure that the uptrend is established. Hey, Robo, I think Markettimer is still bullish along with Don Hayes.

 

[Bullitt]

When has Brinker ever actually been bearish?

 

[Birchtree]

Man I was hoping for a Robo rant - he can't stand Bob Brinker.

 

[Bullitt]

Semi's breakout from a bear flag. Rally ahead?

View attachment 7727

 

[nnuut]

Definitely bullish flag breakout!!

 

[James48843]

Retail sales posted up 3.6%.

On-line sales up 15.5%.

Good news, to be sure, but still a long way to go to establish a "new normal".

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Shopp...7.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

 

[Bullitt]

Breakout of AD Line still intact.

View attachment 7794

 

[Brett]

Dick Morris is claiming that there will be a big stock market rally if Scott Brown wins in today’s Senate run-off in Massachusetts. I’m inclined to agree. Although Brown seems to have a polling edge, a big turnout could give the seat to the Democratic rival Martha Coakley. I don’t think it is a sure thing either way, so the “Sell the news” mantra may not apply here. :blink:

 

[Brett]

Anyone know the best way to get egg off of my face?

 

[Bullitt]

Hey Birch, maybe a time to re-leverage up is right around the corner.

Dr. Duru's T2108 is nearing a buy signal. He says to watch the next spike in the VIX as it will be a good time to buy in the ST time frame.

http://tiny.cc/Uv7Ok

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX did spike to 29 on Friday but came right back down to 26 on the market reversal. We'll see the VIX 17 level soon enough. I hope to be able to continue buying next week if the market provides me abundant buying power - keeping an eagle eye on interest rates.