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Bullitt's Account Talk
- Thread starter Bullitt
- Start date
Bullitt
Well-known member
If you don't think we'll see 1400 by october expiration, oct 19th, you could sell 1 october 1400 put option and make $1250. Or sell 2 or 3 and make $1250 each.
If I did, it'd only be with S&P mini's. I don't want to play at the high roller tables. Maybe some day I'll get into trading futures (and options), but for now I only use them as a way to gauge market sentiment. I'm not ready to quit my day job for this kind of thing...
Bullitt
Well-known member
Hard to get a grasp on things this week with the quarter ending Friday and all but I'm confident we're going to take out 14K next week after a pullback. The dumb money will continue to pour it into AAPL, RIMM, AMZN and DRYS while the smart money will continue to establish a cost basis in some of the less popular large cap stocks poised to move next quarter.
This speaks for itself. From the WSJ, "28% of managers responding to Russell Investment Group's quarterly Investment Manager Outlook now believe U.S. stocks are undervalued, up from 21% three months ago."
Next week will be a huge week. I'm expecting some big positive moves.
This speaks for itself. From the WSJ, "28% of managers responding to Russell Investment Group's quarterly Investment Manager Outlook now believe U.S. stocks are undervalued, up from 21% three months ago."
Next week will be a huge week. I'm expecting some big positive moves.
Bullitt
Well-known member
Bulls continue to climb the wall of worry as C and UBS issue earnings warnings. This is a good move on both companies to warn ahead because that eliminates the X factor. The cat is out of the bag. Investors know where financials are with the subprime fallout and no longer have to rely on experts such as Dick Bove from Punk Ziegel. He says there's even more bad new to come. Bring it.
Hopefully Institutions will pile into this rally because right now, they aren't. Maybe they'll give us the volume to barrell us over 14K for real after 2PM when the real trading begins. Still plenty of folks looking to get involved in the rally that they failed to accept on 8/29. Combining them with the shorts who don't have the guts to stick to their guns should provide some nice Bull Fuel.
Anyone that stayed fully invested the past 2 months has made their money back and then some. There's more to come. I'm still expecting big moves for the week.
Hopefully Institutions will pile into this rally because right now, they aren't. Maybe they'll give us the volume to barrell us over 14K for real after 2PM when the real trading begins. Still plenty of folks looking to get involved in the rally that they failed to accept on 8/29. Combining them with the shorts who don't have the guts to stick to their guns should provide some nice Bull Fuel.
Anyone that stayed fully invested the past 2 months has made their money back and then some. There's more to come. I'm still expecting big moves for the week.
Bullitt
Well-known member
Looks like the program trading is going to be a factor at the record resistance level of the SPX today. Overbought rally but an overbought rally doesn't mean it can't stay overbought to breakthru. It's kind of like knocking on the castle door with a battering ram. Hit it enough times and it will break.
Bullitt
Well-known member
from WSJ 10/8/07:
"...this isn't looking like a sustained uptrend. It's looking more like a classic rotation by hedge funds into large-cap stocks to enjoy the last leg of a rally."
In other words, time to get long for the 4th quarter where gains are about 4% in the S&P.
"...this isn't looking like a sustained uptrend. It's looking more like a classic rotation by hedge funds into large-cap stocks to enjoy the last leg of a rally."
In other words, time to get long for the 4th quarter where gains are about 4% in the S&P.
Bullitt
Well-known member
Nice knee jerk pullback yesterday. After doing a little research it seems to me that the downgrade of BIDU by JPM and the fact that Buffet has been reducing his stake in PetroChina significantly were the major causes of the sudden tailspin the market went into. Buffet selling is a sign China is overpriced as he sells when he feels companies have become overvalued. The downgrade brought about major selling by institutions in BIDU and other Chinese stocks listed on the NYSE. The huge sell orders triggered additional seismic quakes only to be magnified by quant or program trading. By time the retail investor had any idea what was going on, the DOW was back at 14K. The Hedge Funds began buying strong at those levels while the retail investor continued to sell. The money inflows were huge in the second half of the day compared to the first.
It's funny because only a fool would've been a buyer at those levels early in the day and seller at the levels later in the day. Unless anyone knew that the BIDU downgrade would be so powerful, nobody saw a drop of that magnitude coming.
The lesson is clear. If you own Chinese stocks, get the heck outta Dodge. If that Shanghai or Hang Seng falls again, there's gonna be a lot of casualties. But hey, nothing wrong with a bubble. It's only wrong if you're the last person trying to sell.
I still believe Large cap is the place to be going forward. Since I try to maintain a long term view on my TSP, I'm overweight the C Fund. The only problem is that tech stocks and bulk shipping have had investors chasing returns the past two months and not taking the time to establish long term positions in Big Caps.
Either way, yesterday was a distribution day.
It's funny because only a fool would've been a buyer at those levels early in the day and seller at the levels later in the day. Unless anyone knew that the BIDU downgrade would be so powerful, nobody saw a drop of that magnitude coming.
The lesson is clear. If you own Chinese stocks, get the heck outta Dodge. If that Shanghai or Hang Seng falls again, there's gonna be a lot of casualties. But hey, nothing wrong with a bubble. It's only wrong if you're the last person trying to sell.
I still believe Large cap is the place to be going forward. Since I try to maintain a long term view on my TSP, I'm overweight the C Fund. The only problem is that tech stocks and bulk shipping have had investors chasing returns the past two months and not taking the time to establish long term positions in Big Caps.
Either way, yesterday was a distribution day.
fedgolfer
Well-known member
I like your opinion on yesterday. Although if we see distribution days strung todgether we could get 2000 all over again. I think the big boys want to make it look scary though. Many of the momentum leaders and the S&P are holding their 9 day SMA... AAPL went down to test the 50 SMA intraday and hopefully will hold support at the 9 SMA... GS has to hold too, if these and leaders start to buckle and don't find support it could get ugly fast. But I agree with you... now, even late yesterday was the time to establish q4 positions.
Bullitt
Well-known member
Golfer,
Sounds like you're taking the right approach by not only watching the indices but watching the action of the Market leaders.
AAPL is a funny one.... is it tech or big cap with global exposure or growth? I don't know. Either way, the Smart Money has already made money in Tech and Dry Bulk Shipping as they continue to ring the register on big up days. Anyone with a keen eye for the market has an idea what sectors the money has been flowing into.
I hope this is a sign of times to come. I had fun when last rally when every dip was met with a rash of buyers. Oh, and yes... Hedge Funds do manipulate the market.
Sounds like you're taking the right approach by not only watching the indices but watching the action of the Market leaders.
AAPL is a funny one.... is it tech or big cap with global exposure or growth? I don't know. Either way, the Smart Money has already made money in Tech and Dry Bulk Shipping as they continue to ring the register on big up days. Anyone with a keen eye for the market has an idea what sectors the money has been flowing into.
I hope this is a sign of times to come. I had fun when last rally when every dip was met with a rash of buyers. Oh, and yes... Hedge Funds do manipulate the market.
fedgolfer
Well-known member
Too funny! DRYS has been in my trade basket, i have traded it though and was never able to hold it strong. Dubai ports may have an IPO soon, or so I've heard... I must do some research on it... that sounds like a guaranteed winner if the global growth phenom continues.
Bullitt
Well-known member
Birchtree, I'm impressed. I figured you'd be more into SFL for the dividend instead of a going for a growth stock.
FedGolfer, 60 Minutes had a good piece on Dubai last night. Covered everything from the 'bubble' type investing atmosphere to the Dubai Ports deal. Of course, I was only half paying attention with picture in picture. Rockies/D-Backs were on at the same time.
Still have some comfort room before the kind of technical damage occurs that would indicate a reversal. Today is a breakout retest with 15DMA holding the line. It would take a real meltdown to fall all the way to the 50DMA any time soon. Hopefully this move down will spark new buyers. I don't see any indications of it today, but we'll see what the week brings.
FedGolfer, 60 Minutes had a good piece on Dubai last night. Covered everything from the 'bubble' type investing atmosphere to the Dubai Ports deal. Of course, I was only half paying attention with picture in picture. Rockies/D-Backs were on at the same time.
Still have some comfort room before the kind of technical damage occurs that would indicate a reversal. Today is a breakout retest with 15DMA holding the line. It would take a real meltdown to fall all the way to the 50DMA any time soon. Hopefully this move down will spark new buyers. I don't see any indications of it today, but we'll see what the week brings.
fedgolfer
Well-known member
Once again greed got the better part of me and I played today's sell-short day in the 3day cycle in a contrarian mode and stayed invested since we were somewhat low in the channels on Friday -- in hindsight they appear to be bear engulfing candlesticks. I stayed in since tomorrow is the buy day -- where traders should by at or below today's low. The 3-day cylce calls for the pop on the buy day to be made last - or in the afternoon. Let's hope that gets dip buyers in the mood.
fedgolfer
Well-known member
Yeah, I saw it... the word bubble comes to mind with everything associated with Dubai. But with American companies going there en masse for corporate tax advantages, and a large chunk of the world migrating there for caviar wishes and capitalist dreams... it's the U.S. of the middle east and will gain ground fast on New York and London as a financial beacon. The rich go to play there, Euro sport stars live there for tax reasons. If its a bubble, its taking big names down with it all over the globe -- errrr, i guess it is bubble, like China -- we'll see the signs of mass distribution, I hope.
On a sidenote, our country better do what it can do keep our best companies at home... if we lose the strongest companies in our service economy, we are doomed. There's global competition and the laws and regs as they stand now will send America's best over to places like Dubai, London and Hong Kong -- and our service jobs along with it.
wv-girl
Member
Hasn't that been going on for quite some time now? It seems that everytime I call either my mortgage co. or utility co. or trash people, etc they all seem to have foreign accents and when I ask where they are located(most don't seem to where the states are located within USA) they let me know...India, or west coast, it seems like local consists of the entire USA now (I am on east coast). Customer service is not what it used to be.
jmo--Debbie
Bullitt
Well-known member
Made a decision to move a small amount of my I and S holdings into C yesterday. I've been waiting for a good day in the past week or so and figured I'd do it yesterday as the S&P touched on support. Berinyi Associates (paid newsletter) finally has a negative sentiment for the week of 10/15 where they've been bullish the past two. Even though this is so called smart money, I take it as a positive because there's been too much bullishness in the air recently. Looking for a bear trap to form today with the dow opening below 14K.
Bullitt
Well-known member
No sell signal for me yet. Hoping for a late afternoon rally after lunch when the real trading begins.
Bullitt
Well-known member
I can understand the move some have made to 'safety' in the past two days with the volatility, but looking under the surface of today, I see market strength. Strong high volume finish with a bear trap initiated around 1525 levels by the usual suspects. Plenty of weak holders got flushed out today on the long and short side of things. Still maintained good relative strength in the Nasdaq, which I believe is going to carry us going forward.
The most important price of the day comes at 4pm and I've been tempted to put some $$ into G to 'lock in profits'. However, I stopped myself numerous times because I still have faith in the bull. 1520-1525 remains my most important line of support and with a close below those levels the breakout fails. Closing above 1540 with most of the move in the last 2 hours on some of the highest positive volume since August is a sign that big money is buying at support.
Most breakouts have a retracement to the pivot price. The drop towards the pivot price is caused by profit takers or plain holders who feel the rally is toast as it drops in intraday trade. As it falls, it's only to be met by the patient hands who missed the breakout and didn't want to buy in at the higher levels who rejuvinate the move upwards with buy orders.
I wish I could talk more about the Oil thing and Turkey because that seems to be weighing big on the market, but to be honest, I've stopped trying to understand the mechanics of the Oil trade.
Help me out here fellow tsp chartists..... The Nasdaq and S&P gave a candlestick symbol that I think is a hammer. Isn't that considered a positive reversal sign???
The most important price of the day comes at 4pm and I've been tempted to put some $$ into G to 'lock in profits'. However, I stopped myself numerous times because I still have faith in the bull. 1520-1525 remains my most important line of support and with a close below those levels the breakout fails. Closing above 1540 with most of the move in the last 2 hours on some of the highest positive volume since August is a sign that big money is buying at support.
Most breakouts have a retracement to the pivot price. The drop towards the pivot price is caused by profit takers or plain holders who feel the rally is toast as it drops in intraday trade. As it falls, it's only to be met by the patient hands who missed the breakout and didn't want to buy in at the higher levels who rejuvinate the move upwards with buy orders.
I wish I could talk more about the Oil thing and Turkey because that seems to be weighing big on the market, but to be honest, I've stopped trying to understand the mechanics of the Oil trade.
Help me out here fellow tsp chartists..... The Nasdaq and S&P gave a candlestick symbol that I think is a hammer. Isn't that considered a positive reversal sign???
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