Bquat's Account Talk

[Bquat]

How much further can the strongest fund keep going?

Still riding the channel and bullish until it breaks:

 

[Bquat]

What do you think about USO? I have it in a Bear Flag but embedded to the up side:

 

[Bquat]

Kind of weird not having any fear in the market this summer. VIX went straight across the Midterm channel:

 

[Mcqlives]

Kind of weird not having any fear in the market this summer. VIX went straight across the Midterm channel:

Agreed on the VIX. As for USO I see a flatline to a slight decline coming...once the markets realize OPEC nations will not agree to slow production oil values will flatline or drop. Either way US production will have to struggle to maintain dca value.

 

[nnuut]

 

[Mcqlives]

Thanks nnuut!....I still think USO will be topping soon (maybe did but probably has some more points to the topside coming up). There is no way, imho, that OPEC nations will agree to reductions in pumping in this political climate. Maybe surprised but I think those meganuts (no offense) will take what money they can, while they can, and run when they can (thinking of all of the former Yemeni ministers as prime examples)

 

[FogSailing]

The MACD appears ready to begin trending down. I appears to me like oil has moved in about 5 dollar ranges over the last 6 months (50-45, 45-40, etc). I think we are reaching the top of the most recent range. If oil does retreat for a bit, say back to 35, I expect some down time for SPX. Don't expect it to last too long though. Chinese, Japanese, and EU will continue CB intervention as will the Fed, so I still see that 2350 number lingering in the not too distant future. Always interesting to speculate.

FS

 

[Bquat]

Is the VIX up move done? Hitting the lower high line:

 

[Bquat]

Is the VIX up move done? Hitting the lower high line:

Boy that question was answered quickly this morning:

 

[Mcqlives]

Boy that question was answered quickly this morning:

I would like for it to break the 50dma just so we have some market action!

 

[Bquat]

Surprise, back in the box already:

 

[FogSailing]

BQ: I think the VIX action today was all just brought on by dovish Fed action. Oil got a boost as did the Dow, SPX, NasD, and RUT. The only ones who took a shellacking were the dollar and the 30 Yr Treasury. I think tomorrow we head to 2160. For me, the real question is what happens next Monday. Thanks for all the great charts you post.

FS

 

[Mcqlives]

Everything is back in the box. Man, this gets boring..................................................................................................................

 

[Bquat]

F Flags are bullish until they break but they don't want to break. I still wonder if foreign money is coming to the US in both stocks and bonds because it's the best place in town because no fear of rate hikes. And what about the VIX? It"s unreal.:suspicious:

 

[Bquat]

DJ-20:

 

[Bquat]

What do you think about USO? I have it in a Bear Flag but embedded to the up side:

So much for the bear flag. Can it go higher?

 

[Bquat]

So a lot of kids finishing up their summer vacation this weekend and their parents returning to work so maybe things will pick up Monday. With summer travel ending and many staying at home this weekend to clean up after summer activity's, gas and oil demand should drop. Just a theory.:cheesy:

 

[FogSailing]

BQ: The analysts seem to be expecting oil to hit $64 in the medium term, but that doesn't mean it won't pull back to the 100 day MA before it shoots back up. I keep hoping that oil does retreat. I read in ZH that it seems like whatever the Saudi's say....oil go up.... despite higher inventories, lack of production cuts, etc. It also indicated that Saudi's aren't able to meet all their costs for supporting their system unless oil was above $40 and that they have been selling Treasuries to get cash to keep their machine going. Apparently this impacts the dollar by reducing its value (not sure I understand how that works...unless we're printing money to pay them back....hmmmmm....I'll will need to examine that relationship further) but a weaker dollars increases the oil price. One of these days all that will change. The question is when is that?

Thanks for the chart.

FS

 

[Bquat]

Lack of fear describes my midterm until Yellen on Friday:

 

[Bquat]

Even though a F Flag is bullish until it breaks in the downward direction, this one has allowed the shorter moving averages to remain above the longer moving averages for a while. So, now even the 50 day and 100 day have been rising for a while. So is this just a summer drift up or something else?