Bquat's Account Talk

[Bquat]

So is the VIX on 100 Day support or is this a Head and Shoulders? VIX-CBOE::blink:

 

[Bquat]

Is USO at resistance or inverse head and shoulders:

 

[Bquat]

I have let SGT go on the way side because it only worked because we were in a downtrend. Peaks were being sold on a regular basis at the 80 stochastic because peaks were being sold following the channel down. As soon as we started to consolidate the levels didn"t follow.:embarrest: So luckily I had only given one signal.

 

[Bquat]

Ok looking for VIX and oil comments.:smile:

 

[FogSailing]

Fab: An analyst I know says that only works during the full moon but just about any time at a Mayan temple or Stonehenge.

FS

 

[FAB1]

Fab: An analyst I know says that only works during the full moon but just about any time at a Mayan temple or Stonehenge.

FS

Here's my totally guessy guess for the day.

That lower gap is going to get filled BEFORE we see next high water mark (approaching the 200day ma)

Its a longer, more drawn out process than the Oct rally

Of course with my current trade that scenario is best for FAB1 so...take it w/ a grain o' salt.

 

[Bquat]

JTH-Bquat

Do you think the market will breakthrough the top, or re-test the bottom?

Wow, I normally save that question to you. Being above a rising 8 and 18 day there's a 60% chance of breaking out of the top. :suspicious:

I was right but I can't guaranty for how long:

 

[Mcqlives]

I was right but I can't guaranty for how long:

Hi Bquat! I hope you and yours have a great weekend! I haven't been posting much the past couple of months...mostly because you, JTH, Amoeba, FWM and the lovely ladies of the forum (Just to reference a few of my "must reads") always seem to say the same things I am thinking.

My reason for posting to your thread today, O' grandestchartmasterofthemostesteemedtsptalkworld, is what I am fearing is happening in the transports. You don't have to post your thoughts, but, next time you are charting, could you throw out a fresh one for the trans?

Thanks man!!!!

 

[Bquat]

I'm seeing a good test on the 50 day from above and a rising 18 day. Not seeing any big drop off in volume as price increases and tails on the candles are neutral. What are you seeing? I'm still wondering if transports is mending itself with low gas prices:

 

[Bquat]

Never got any oil comments. So looking at consolidation in oil. Added volume to the chart to see direction. Not seeing much movement but that is a good thing. Doesn't it look like the dips are being bought?

 

[Mcqlives]

I'm seeing a good test on the 50 day from above and a rising 18 day. Not seeing any big drop off in volume as price increases and tails on the candles are neutral. What are you seeing? I'm still wondering if transports is mending itself with low gas prices:

I appreciate the chart! It is reassuring but the contrarian in me keeps going back to the transports last august, the few week time frame surrounding the sharp sell-off, where we thought the oil prices were stabalized(ing). This seems to be a very similar inflection point, although at different price points. I am concerned that, without transports seeing an infusion of capital soon (buyers really need to come out this coming week) we will see an abrupt drop.

 

[Mcqlives]

Never got any oil comments. So looking at consolidation in oil. Added volume to the chart to see direction. Not seeing much movement but that is a good thing. Doesn't it look like the dips are being bought?

Yes...or waiting for the oil producers to make the next announcement on production. Most, if not all, of those moves in the box were news driven concerning production levels. Oil prices, not commodity prices overall, but specifically oil prices, are acting as the major mover on markets the past few weeks. This makes it really hard to depend on statistics when several dictators in the world can effect global markets through a simple press release.

 

[FogSailing]

I think that makes sense Bquat. What worries me is the McClellan Oscillator is indicating we move down this week. On the other hand, JTH pointed out recently that we should follow the trend indicators when moving vertically and oscillators when moving horizontally. The trend indicators (momentum, MA, RSI, VIX, etc. say up), monetary indicators (Yen, Dollar) indicate down, several oscillators indicate down....so I'm like "flip a coin"..

FS

 

[Bquat]

Ok guys, SPX has been trying to be a leading indicator being first to break out of the box, so is this a false breakout or Bear Jab? Looked so good before deadline testing the top of the rectangle formation and post deadline even the 50 Day couldn't hold. What happened::worried: Added SPY for volume:

 

[Bquat]

Just had to ask about this because the afternoon move surprised me.

 

[FogSailing]

Hi BQ. I don't know but SPX broke down and is now heading towards the bottom of the trading channel. Because of the lack of momentum on Friday; today wasn't a big surprise BUT the close was the real surprise. Momentum is now headed south so tomorrow is probably at 1901 perhaps lower. All good for the bears. Bulls are going to have to step up. The other anamoly: oil up 3% and SPX down. I would expect some hedging given that Yen was up as was Gold...but this doesn't feel right. Was on the fence today to see how things would shape up. Right now I'm out until the picture is a bit clearer.

On the road today playing some golf in Lake Havasu. Couldn't believe it got to 91 degrees today. Pretty warm for February.

FS

 

[FAB1]

Just had to ask about this because the afternoon move surprised me.

Ready and willing to jump in today even if the morning action is weak - I must be crazy!

 

[Bquat]

Ready and willing to jump in today even if the morning action is weak - I must be crazy!

I didn't tell anyone.

 

[FAB1]

I didn't tell anyone.

Looks like a new breakout, maybe.

Not fueled (pun) by Oil either.

 

[Bquat]

Looks like a new breakout, maybe.

Not fueled (pun) by Oil either.

Looks like your right.