Bquat's Account Talk

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FogSailing said:
Here's what the Elliot wavers posted yesterday:

View attachment 35352

Don't know if this help answer your question Bquat but maybe as a reference doc.

Seems to me their intermediate channels look predominantly a diagonal pattern..but can't read this morning..Lost my glasses..

FS
Click to expand...

Sorry! Cant LIKE the post until you tell me what hell it means!

Good noos, or Bad noos?
 
It sorta says bad news followed by some sideways news followed by good news, IF.... it all shakes out like the EW guys think it will. It's a crap shoot and like Nordic, Whipsaw, Burro, Tsunami, RMI, FWM, and so many others have said..be very very careful. But we are getting close to that buying opportunity and I don't want to miss it and hope it doesn't get here until October.

FS
 
I'm with you. This market is moving so fast that tomorrow could end up being the lowest close and the day to jump in. I'm still banking on this being a wave 3 down though, with a bit more down to go then a wave 4 and 5 to come. So all of that should hopefully take a few days and we'll be restocked with IFTs to try to catch the falling knife LOL.

Regarding EW gurus, here's one (link below) I've added to my awful list. It seems every time he posts on Marketwatch he's proved to be totally wrong within hours and today was no exception. I wouldn't believe his prediction that we're just in a wave 4 either, I think this is a bear market that will prove to be pretty severe by the time it hits bottom. In the mean time, I'm scalping with short trades in my trading account. Sold my QQQ puts late today and made enough to buy a fleet of VW diesels. :laugh:

Is 1700 for the SPX still on target? - MarketWatch
 
Not mentioned, but some market timers saw this chart posted a short-term bullish inverted head and shoulders and were encouraging buying all afternoon last Friday and even today. I think the shoulder is broken.

I bought into L Income on Thursday and thankfully sold on Friday for a table scraps gain. My market indicators at 11:55am on Thursday did show a short-term bounce for Friday was highly likely. On Friday, when it started out high and began down, I got spooked (as posted in my account talk) and exited. These are strange times. I am in cash overnight, locked out of TSP, but will look at options in my other accounts tomorrow.

Bquat said:
So here's the question for Monday. Is smart money going to cash waiting for direction? I'm zoomed in on the Midterm action. The SPDR's are crawling there way out of the bottom of the Midterm channel. AGG has increased selling volume going down from the breakout and failed to retake the 100 and 50 day's after the gap down. So are my Midterm channels looking right?
Click to expand...
 
Tsunami: After I read the Marketwatch article I was reminded of a song : Another One Bites The Dust!!Another One Bites The Dust!!:D:D:D

I agree with one certainty right now regarding EW: Don't break below 1800. If we do, it puts in "we've arrived at the bear market FOR SURE". Right now many EW gurus put us in the 4th wave, and there has already been speculation that we could be in the beginnings of the 5 wave. And these are the experts?

I'm glad that we have TA to help us make investing decisions. If I could ever get a firm fix on where we are in EW (i.e. what cycle, what wave, etc) I would be much more time and effort in it. On the sidelines until October.

FS
 
FogSailing said:
Tsunami: After I read the Marketwatch article I was reminded of a song : Another One Bites The Dust!!Another One Bites The Dust!!:D:D:D

I agree with one certainty right now regarding EW: Don't break below 1800. If we do, it puts in "we've arrived at the bear market FOR SURE". Right now many EW gurus put us in the 4th wave, and there has already been speculation that we could be in the beginnings of the 5 wave. And these are the experts?

I'm glad that we have TA to help us make investing decisions. If I could ever get a firm fix on where we are in EW (i.e. what cycle, what wave, etc) I would be much more time and effort in it. On the sidelines until October.

FS
Click to expand...

Is anyone considering shorting the S&P 500, or SPY at this time to take advantage of the downside? Tia
 
:D
airlift said:
Is anyone considering shorting the S&P 500, or SPY at this time to take advantage of the downside? Tia
Click to expand...
No way! :worried: See my last post. I think it too risky and see double dip happening in MACD below the zero line... once that finishes then I will consider going back in. But this is just my humble opinion of course. :smile:

P.S. Ohhh yessss.... I think about it all the time! But I am trying very hard to not go against what I am thinking... and darn that is very hard!! :rolleyes:
 
Bquat said:
I can't read it with my glasses.
Click to expand...
I opened the attachment and saved it as a jpeg. Opened the new file in a picture viewer and zoomed it 250% and can see it but I don't know what it means. I don't do elliot wave theory.:embarrest:
 
airlift said:
Is anyone considering shorting the S&P 500, or SPY at this time to take advantage of the downside? Tia
Click to expand...

I concur with DBA. Very dangerous to press short-side trades now with divergences in place, overly bearish sentiment etc. I somehow lucked out today with my 6th straight winner, this time a day trade with QQQ puts again. But I sold that (and used the proceeds to immediately fully fund my Roth IRA this year at the $6500 limit, and surprised me and my wife with 2 50-yard line tickets to the Seahawks-Cardinals game on 1/3/16, never been to a Seahawks regular season game even though I've been fan since I entered the contest to help name the new franchise way back in 1976) and the bearish position I had in my Roth IRA (SQQQ) and if I make any more leveraged trades they will be on the bullish side starting tomorrow. I see the futures are up, it's possible that today was the low everyone will wish they bought.
 
Im 100% in with my TSP. My instinct is telling me to take the money and run today with a rally looming.

"Greedy-needy me" wants to gamble on staying invested longer...

Looking 4 a possible ceiling/ resistance line - any ideas? Quat?
 
I guess its also kind of hard to draw a line when u don't know what the S&P closing price will be today...:embarrest:
 
FAB1 said:
Im 100% in with my TSP. My instinct is telling me to take the money and run today with a rally looming.

"Greedy-needy me" wants to gamble on staying invested longer...

Looking 4 a possible ceiling/ resistance line - any ideas? Quat?
Click to expand...
Top of the Midterm, Dead Cat Bounce Line and 18 Day. 1948.50 As if I know::notrust:
 
Thanks but your charts were too late I was probably over-cautious and dumped the I fund for bonds.

Still, made .65% one that one day trade while domestics were much weaker.

and tho futures are up this morning the CLOSE is yet to be seen. :D

Tom's pointing out head & shoulder pattern on the F fund (and all the global uncertainty, etc)
pushed me out of stocks to hopefully preserve what I did manage to get the last couple of days.

Good luck to all who brave
these stormy seas just don't go down with the ship!
 
Um wow - did u see that US futures went THUD and EU stock dropped right behind them.

Gotta luv a "global" economy, eh? :pat:
 
[h=3]Labor Force Participation Sinks To A 38-Year Low[/h]‎10‎/‎2‎/‎2015‎ ‎9‎:‎23‎:‎08‎ ‎AM · BI ^ | 10-2-2015 | Andy Kiersz

Andy KierszOctober 2, 2015 The September jobs report was broadly disappointing, with very few points of optimism. Along with non-farm payrolls and wage growth missing expectations, the civilian labor force participation rate — the percentage of the US population that is either working or looking for a job — fell by 0.2 percentage points to 62.4%. This is the lowest reading since October 1977.
 
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