Bquat's Account Talk

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Or also called triple top break down. http://www.inthemoneystocks.com/fre...n-an-m-a-bearish-pattern-is-going-to-play-out
SPY10_23_2009.bmp
 
Bquat, you timed your exit perfectly. I personally think your charts a great also;however, I think you should give us a little more explanation of what you see. Not everyone may be able to read them as well as you. It might help those of us learn how to read them better. I know you are probably thinking they are self explanitory. With the big move up that we have seen and the China manufacturing news out tonight I feel we may see a drop below the 1770 area. Also, the 1929 chart that has been in the news may start to scare people. Thanks for the the charts and your input.
 
rspring said:
Bquat, you timed your exit perfectly. I personally think your charts a great also;however, I think you should give us a little more explanation of what you see. Not everyone may be able to read them as well as you. It might help those of us learn how to read them better. I know you are probably thinking they are self explanitory. With the big move up that we have seen and the China manufacturing news out tonight I feel we may see a drop below the 1770 area. Also, the 1929 chart that has been in the news may start to scare people. Thanks for the the charts and your input.
Click to expand...

Yeah, bquat, give a "buy" and a "sell" so we know what to do... all those lines and curves and bars and... yeah, all that...

Make it simple for us "simple" people ;)
 
rspring said:
Bquat, you timed your exit perfectly. I personally think your charts a great also;however, I think you should give us a little more explanation of what you see. Not everyone may be able to read them as well as you. It might help those of us learn how to read them better. I know you are probably thinking they are self explanitory. With the big move up that we have seen and the China manufacturing news out tonight I feel we may see a drop below the 1770 area. Also, the 1929 chart that has been in the news may start to scare people. Thanks for the the charts and your input.
Click to expand...
Normally in my charts I try to have them some what unbiased but drawn with a ladder or channels in the direction I'm thinking the market will follow. This exit was because of JTH's analysis and no market movement to a new high with the thrust up. Some times I squeeze in the time frame to see the forest instead of the trees. I did not see the possible M A pattern until after my move and the A probably should be lower. I try to do a bearish chart when I'm in or a Birchchart when I'm out to double check to see my odds of being right. When I see something that looks like a pattern I try to name it so I can look it up. I learned a lot of patterns by watching Live with Oscar a few years and watching anything he says for short term. Also now we have search engines where you can type out a pattern name and find the real name. When I draw a biased chart I say how biased it is by a percent chance of it happening. Sometimes when I explain more about a chart I get too much into my bias while explaining. Like this M A pattern. If it is a true M A pattern, there's a 90 to 95% chance of the right side of the A going back down to the base. That why I mentioned it. It's like a heads up on a potentially big bearish move. So far the last 4 month's my TA has been 60% right and that's extremely over par for me. Both Spidey and I have been on a roll lately.
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
Yeah, bquat, give a "buy" and a "sell" so we know what to do... all those lines and curves and bars and... yeah, all that...

Make it simple for us "simple" people ;)
Click to expand...
I can only tell you when I'm going in or getting out. The buy and sell is up to you because this is a free service. I do give odds though (risk/reward sort of).:D
 
Back to real time, Test of the 5 day from below and try to hold this channel. Still in a up and down drift of a little over 1% until volume increases. An open up would be good.Not really a holiday trend reversal yet.:confused:
 
I subdued some of my lines so moving averages could be seen better. First test of the 5 day from below failed so I put back my last channel (purple) bottom as a resistance line. Testing the new bottom of the channel now.:worried:
 
Bquat said:
If a high base or flat top fails to make a higher high, the market considers it a failed pattern and flat tops bring big drops.:worried: I'll probably change the yellow channel to a larger than 1% channel to capture this low.:suspicious:
Click to expand...

Great job timing it...I had the 1848 pegged but did not pick the right day to move out...oh well, it could have been worse.
Now I selfishly hope this predication of yours hold true otherwise I just wasted a move and took a cut out of my gains to boot.

Oh, and futures seemed to hold at 1818-1820 last night...
 
Mcqlives said:
Great job timing it...I had the 1848 pegged but did not pick the right day to move out...oh well, it could have been worse.
Now I selfishly hope this predication of yours hold true otherwise I just wasted a move and took a cut out of my gains to boot.

Oh, and futures seemed to hold at 1818-1820 last night...
Click to expand...
I am really not seeing the drop I expected. Maybe we're putting in a right shoulder but this still can be a bull flag until we break 1820. I'm starting to think the post holiday trend reversal may be moot.:confused:
 
I'm thinking the news is driving the market possibly and not technical indicators.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I317 using Tapatalk
 
I think you're right. News on U.S. Manufacturing being good. Whereas European and Asian manufacturing is down, the later probably just seasonal for Chinese New Year. On the other hand, anyone else shocked by Walmart's Q4 revenue?
 
Well definitely not seeing any pullback. Back up to my exit point. Still an up and down drift of a little more than 1%. Not missing any gains but I now have a neutral outlook. Since I have no IFT's for another week either direction doesn't matter. I do believe we won't make new highs but the market likes to keep us guessing.:suspicious: Tomorrow is the last trading day of snow week so keep an eye open for the set up for the higher volume next week.
 
Just waiting to see if we get a double top.:worried: Yes I'm still neutral short term but still believe we won't get higher highs yet.
 
Bquat said:
Just waiting to see if we get a double top.:worried: Yes I'm still neutral short term but still believe we won't get higher highs yet.
Click to expand...
And of course this won't happen until after the deadline. Why? Because the move that establishes direction is after our deadline 80% of the time.:(
 
So was this a false breakout? I'm really not missing any real gains yet.:) Dip at the close does give us a topping tail and we did drop below resistance.:worried: This is right where many will look for confirmation and many didn't follow this move. So odds in my mind are 60/40 of downside tomorrow.
 
Bottom of channel still holding. I am a little concerned that the top of the channel hasn't been reached.:worried:
 
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