Bquat's Account Talk

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I forgot about the third round of storms starting tomorrow night. Most certainly a Catch 22. Ultimately this boils down to timing. We all know QE will end by the end of the year, but rather will it end sooner than later. If Yellen does cite weather for being a reason not to taper QE, and if we are still enjoying the fruits of QE come hurricane season, one can only wonder if a major hurricane would delay the later stages of tapering.
 
I suppose you trapped me with a foot in my mouth just like how the FED is. I'd feel better about placing a bet around April. If it isn't eliminated, I'd expect it to be much lower than we see right now. Considering the FED tapers at $5 billion a month with a delay here or there, we may be looking at QE around $15 - $25 billion per month by December. Ultimately I think the FED will continue to take strong efforts to reach this goal by year's end.
 
I think we might be just above resistance but still below the moving averages. I might have to double check the light blue line because the market acted like it was still below it. I still think there's a slight chance 55/45 of the 50 day holding as a resistance level. The 20 day 50/50 chance of holding. If Miss Yellen is Jelling,and delays Taper we can pop it. If she say she expects the economy to continue to strengthen look out. I feel this last up move was because the market liked the lower jobs report.:p Am I right or am I wrong for not going long.:blink:
 
BichonFreeze said:
I forgot about the third round of storms starting tomorrow night. Most certainly a Catch 22. Ultimately this boils down to timing. We all know QE will end by the end of the year, but rather will it end sooner than later. If Yellen does cite weather for being a reason not to taper QE, and if we are still enjoying the fruits of QE come hurricane season, one can only wonder if a major hurricane would delay the later stages of tapering.
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It's an opinion and maybe not a foot in mouth thingy.:o In my thread you are more allowed to state an opinion. I rather a wrong opinion be put out there than none. Others may be thinking the same thing but afraid to say anything. Then someone will correct it and maybe help the shy ones. This site is a group site and a learning site.:D
 
I think we might be just above resistance but still below the moving averages. I might have to double check the light blue line because the market acted like it was still below it. Under further review, I'm going with under resistance. I could be wrong but that's my call. I may have just biased this chart for my outlook.;)
 
Guess I was wrong on the blue line being red.:embarrest: At least JTH's 1808 is holding so far.:) Now what's going to happen? One of the Feds says taper should increase and 3% growth in the economy is expected all while Yellen is talking to congress.:confused:
 
BichonFreeze said:
It's difficult to tell what will happen. I think I'm going to go all in and see where it takes me.
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You go boy! Me, I would wait on the move over the 50 day. We are currently at the top of a 3% quick up move and there may not be enough momentum left without a high base move to build strength to break it.:suspicious: I could be wrong here but the odds are in my favor. 60/40 now 50 Day holds. If for some reason (news based) it breaks I may go 50%. I just don't think it will break and test as support before the deadline. It may be just like yesterday. I may miss gain but this year I'm not as impulsive and will see the move first. I learned last year, there is plenty of time and the forth quarter my just be my time frame.:cool:
 
Bquat said:
You go boy! Me, I would wait on the move over the 50 day. We are currently at the top of a 3% quick up move and there may not be enough momentum left without a high base move to build strength to break it.:suspicious: I could be wrong here but the odds are in my favor. 60/40 now 50 Day holds. If for some reason (news based) it breaks I may go 50%. I just don't think it will break and test as support before the deadline. It may be just like yesterday. I may miss gain but this year I'm not as impulsive and will see the move first. I learned last year, there is plenty of time and the forth quarter my just be my time frame.:cool:
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The market really likes to make me look stupid.:D News: House will vote today on no strings attached raise of debt ceiling and Yellen " taper is not on a set schedule ". Now I wait for the test to hold. So maybe under my plan +25% news based and +25% chart based.
 
In my forced habit to do my IFT soon enough for others to have time to react. 50S, 50G.
 
JTH said:
Funny how the market has a habit of making the majority of us wrong the majority of the time :D
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Yeah, I hope that's not true after my IFT. The move was strong and I hope it's long and I'm not wrong.
 
JTH, I'm also going with the longer term chart and the relationship of the 20 day and 50 day. A good peak comes after the 20 touches the 50 and this move may draw the 20 back above the 50 and ease midterm market concerns. I honestly thought the 50 would hold as resistance but now have to flip my concerns for the midterm. Plus Yellen has no concerns on the short term weather events effect on the market. I have said I was becoming more news based.
 
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