Bquat's Account Talk

[law87]

I hate having a bearish bias but I have no idea how bad the mid to longer term damage is. Many feel because RSI levels are indicating over sold but can't they become embedded too? Smart people weigh in here:

I'm not one of the smart people but remember last year when everyone say "its overbought, wait for the pullback" well the market never even retrace out of the whole year. Its possible we could go lower, but these price are very attractive, considering we are sitting near the 50% Fib level.

 

[JTH]

We do approach times where technical analysis just doesn't work and rational support lines hold no merit. Those are the best times to just sit it out and let Market's flu run its course. For your amusement I'll point out that prices stopped on this trendline just over the 150 SMA. This particular trendline doesn't seem to hold any significance to me, but it's there so I drew it.

View attachment 27051

View attachment 27052

 

[Bquat]

I'm not one of the smart people but remember last year when everyone say "its overbought, wait for the pullback" well the market never even retrace out of the whole year. Its possible we could go lower, but these price are very attractive, considering we are sitting near the 50% Fib level.

I was originally was considering the 50% fib for a partial enter but came up with 1700 by two methods. I look the large pattern previously as a H&S and had figured 1700 as a projection. I also did the pattern repeat and figured the second drop buy looking how it was hitting within my ladder. This didn't match the H&S loss potential and since we were in a low base added the third leg. Also I was still thinking the 50% at the 50% but since news about emerging markets cancelled another 25%. So I'm in look and see. PS I didn't realize 1700 was the 200 day until I saw JTH's chart. What a coincidence. I like to explain how I come up with things because even though I may not be figuring things out right it makes me think I am.:embarrest: So I keep guessing right until I guess wrong.

 

[Bquat]

Site soooo slooooow

 

[Bquat]

Clean chart:

 

[Bquat]

Bear flagging to the 1%. So like, I go to bowl and nothing changes.

So off to bowl I go. The one percent met and we go slightly down. I like the little movement this morning. It my lower your fears but we're still in a low base.:worried: I will be out of pocket and there is a 95% chance I won't make a move today.

 

[Bquat]

Just had to look just before I left. Pattern repeat may have started: See ya good luck.:worried::worried:

 

[Bquat]

Things look better with sideways movement. Right? Still a low base and bearish with declining moving averages but better as we wait for them.:notrust: The distance between steps shorter bet the previous blue drop pattern is still valid. Didn't want to redraw it in so you can see market action.

 

[Mcqlives]

Things look better with sideways movement. Right? Still a low base and bearish with declining moving averages but better as we wait for them.:notrust: The distance between steps shorter bet the previous blue drop pattern is still valid. Didn't want to redraw it in so you can see market action.

Meandering before the storm...

Triple test and fail of bottom would be very bad and most likely occur quickly

vs

climb back to 1776-1782 which I think would offer some good pause to buy in if we get any bullish confirmation.

I'm out till we see something good.

 

[Bquat]

Two things to be aware of. Monthly bearish until we break 1787. Midterm bearish cross (don't no if this is a death cross).:worried: May keep the market bearish.

This should be weekly. If by Friday close we don't get to or above 1787 the weekly will have a red candle (Bearish). The midterm bearish crossover of the 20 over the 50 Day means midterm is in a bearish trend and there is more resistance above than support below and the 50 day should be starting to decline faster. JMO :embarrest: Now the way I am going to interpret this is the market is leaning toward the dark side and not to trust it until you see a bigger up move. Back when I was in capital preservation when I first retired was + 1.78% or more in a day. So is my slight bearish tint when charting.:cheesy: So I hope I cleared up some of my confusion.

 

[Bquat]

Pre-preparing my ladder just in case. I have no trust in it as of yet. Need to break out of the blue-green channel. I kinda need confirmation over the green line.:notrust: This is a 1% step ladder. I just thought what it would at least look like to give the market the benefit of a doubt.:suspicious: Wow it does look like we just need the 1.78% I wrote about.:nuts: Ok just a little over 2%.

 

[Birchtree]

Do I see a nicely defined W bottom?

 

[Bquat]

Do I see a nicely defined W bottom?

Maybe.

 

[Bquat]

I was considering entering 25% today but we are at the 1% hesitation point and at resistance. I think we are at this point of the repeating pattern. I could be wrong to not go long but you know me I have to see (confirmation).:blink: So it's a must for me to mistrust. Need 1% more for me.

 

[gronk007]

I don't know if it's hesitation or resistance. Perhaps it investors hedging their bets ahead of the jobs report tomorrow.

 

[Bquat]

I don't know if it's hesitation or resistance. Perhaps it investors hedging their bets ahead of the jobs report tomorrow.

I don't know but there is some feeling by others that two consecutive bad job reports may cause Yellen to stop the yelling. Decrease or delay taper. I think Birchtree mentioned this in another thread. I probably would have entered but in this years system I'm more news based and that's after the news not preempt the news. Also more confirmation based on the charts. It may be to my bad but what can I say.

 

[OBXTrader]

Bouncing off of 1770 and small caps are off their highs.....I don't know...wish I had enough guts to short the market. Tomorrow will be telling.

I don't know but there is some feeling by others that two consecutive bad job reports may cause Yellen to stop the yelling. Decrease or delay taper. I think Birchtree mentioned this in another thread. I probably would have entered but in this years system I'm more news based and that's after the news not preempt the news. Also more confirmation based on the charts. It may be to my bad but what can I say.

 

[Bquat]

Post deadline chart: A toss of a coin between two proposed channels. Don't you just love the deadline.
60/40 in favor of yellow.:suspicious:

 

[Bquat]

Bouncing off of 1700 and small caps are off their highs.....I don't know...wish I had enough guts to short the market. Tomorrow will be telling.

Yes tomorrow will be very telling. I'm leaning toward the yellow channel because of catch 22. Good job report and taper will continue. Bad job report may have people second guessing on taper. So if bad + bad is good and good is bad, go with the trend Yellow) or not.:nuts:

 

[Bquat]

Ok if you put salt on my tail and hold me to an unbiased guess. Under how the market thinks since last year, bad jobs report will be good news on taper. If bad news on jobs continues because of weather and bad weather continues, the Fed may say something before the next wave of storms. That's original the Fed worried about the weather. It could happen. Fed help into spring. Anybody agree?