Bquat's Account Talk

[Mcqlives]

I kind of got loss here. I am glad you agree with me though.

my one dividend payer lets me roll profits directly into share purchases. this means i don't pay capital gains during current taxes. hopefully in 15 years when i start drawing on that stock the tax picture is brighter. i think investment firms are settling in to ride the next several years out and are looking at international portfolios that include dividend reinvestments. does that clear up my ramblings?

 

[Bquat]

my one dividend payer lets me roll profits directly into share purchases. this means i don't pay capital gains during current taxes. hopefully in 15 years when i start drawing on that stock the tax picture is brighter. i think investment firms are settling in to ride the next several years out and are looking at international portfolios that include dividend reinvestments. does that clear up my ramblings?

Yes and thanks.

 

[Mcqlives]

to clarify one thing...big money is selling to get liquidity...but they are targeting how much they need to cover expenses for a set time frame. how much and how long are the things that are driving the sell off.

 

[Bquat]

Here's what the pattern is: Let's say smart money is exiting positions to miss the 2013 tax increase but don't want bad money to follow. Hmm keep the selling less than 2% daily as to not trigger any sell signals or panic. Buy a little in the futures market to make it look like dip buying. Rinse and repeat. They could be selling the money the Plunge Protection team puts in after the dips. Just my parinoia again.:notrust: Remember I did say the Sep-Oct selloff could be offset two months by QE3 and elections. Hope this isn't the case.:worried:

So are we getting back to this? Looking weaker.:worried:

Now some rant: My sweet Hilary resigns, two generals under invesyigation, US postal service losses 15 Bil and FHA (Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac?) lose 16 Bil. Wow how can all this be hidden? Can't wait for unemployment rate up and job reports estimates being downsized. Rant over. Probably won't effect the market.:toung:

 

[Bquat]

to clarify one thing...big money is selling to get liquidity...but they are targeting how much they need to cover expenses for a set time frame. how much and how long are the things that are driving the sell off.

Sorry I was in my Fox news rant and missed this. Sorry:embarrest:

 

[Mcqlives]

Sorry I was in my Fox news rant and missed this. Sorry:embarrest:

Fox news?!?! That was Glenn Beck all day long!

 

[Bquat]

So, even though we're in a low base, should we enter before a President-Congress deal anouncement?

 

[Bquat]

Here's my down stairs no sell progam triggering pattern for you to ponder while you think about my last question:

 

[Bquat]

Staying out. Go Isreal go. And still waiting for more bad economic news to leak out. Isreal going into attack mode may raise oil prices and hurt economy. Lower low just set.

 

[Mcqlives]

So, even though we're in a low base, should we enter before a President-Congress deal anouncement?

I am considering it...just not today. I would like to see a little more downside to the point of being really overbought before I do a short term buy...and hopefully avoid a bull trap. A buy on Monday and an out on Friday is a possibility depending on weekend news.

Anyone know if TSP is open on next Friday (do a transfer on Wed morning to take effect for Fridays market action)? This 2 transfer crap still confuses me.

 

[Bquat]

Staying out. Go Isreal go. And still waiting for more bad economic news to leak out. Isreal going into attack mode may raise oil prices and hurt economy. Lower low just set.

Here's the post Bquat anouncement spike.:notrust:

 

[Bquat]

Well we looked a little bullish today. I don't have my hopes up. Very short term triple top.:worried: I would have to see confirmation to the up side before a move.:notrust: If we can recapture the 5 day, without it recapturing us as resistance, we can make a giganic 2% gain to 1384. It's another coin flip day and I really don't want to use my IFT's. Well at least I would like to save one for deal day if it even happens this month. So lower low and higher high is slightly bullish with risk.:notrust:

 

[Bquat]

Long term: If the bottom of the rising wedge doesn't hold, M for murder.:worried:
If the bottom of the rising wedge holds, we could go up for a right shoulder. 1450ish
Midterm: Inverted cup with handle forming.:worried:

Short term: New upward channel (white) or is this the handle?
Can it be a right shoulder building off an inverted H&S?
Can it be triple top low base ready to break downward?

If you can answer the last three questions please do so.

As always your opinions matter to me and others. I'm only bearish right know because I'm out and open for suggestions. Give me a +1.51% and I may jump. May is a word to show a lack of confidence in one self.

 

[Bquat]

Doesn't the rising wedge look like a channel the way I drew it? Oh will figure that out Monday.

 

[Bquat]

If I know something you don't know and you know something I don't know, isn't that a nice way of saying that neither of know everything. I won't tell them about me.

 

[Bquat]

Interesting take BQ,

I suspect the charts will get patterned by the news, and this has often happened in the past.
The reason we see strong dips with sharp rises thrown in seems to be because when we do go thru our "bloodbath sellofs" it prompts action for our politicians, the fed, etc.

I think we were on the edge of a bloodbath sellloff 2 days ago, which was averted yesterday because our politicians decided to at least pretend to act, and their work on an agreement to kick the full effects of the fiscal cliff down the road a few months gives some breathing room. Their faked comments on "constructive" talks is something I've seen before and it is usually followed by a major breakdown...which will likely come on Monday after the holiday which Tom has shown is a statistically poor market day.

BUT that leaves a 4 day holiday period of semi-kumbaya during a time frame which is statistically strong on the markets. So I suspect we'll see the charts pop back up to 1380, or maybe even 1400, before the next violent downswing when negotiations inevitably break down.

And they have to break down.
Both sides are too entrenched. I watch both MSNBC and Fox to see how each side feels.
Fox News says the GOP will have no income rate increases...since that breaks their oath to Grover Nordquist and makes them all (including Boehner) susceptible to ouster from Tea Party challengers.
MSNBC shows Dems saying that they've had enough of Bush tax rates for the upper classes and they must go up, no matter what additional loopholes in the tax code are done, with no big cuts to Medicare, SS, or Obamacare.
So both sides have dug in. They speak the truth on their own "networks"...but put up pleasantries on the mainstream media to avoid being labeled an "obstructionist".

So I strongly suspect there is some short term profits to be made the next few days, but anyone that does and wants to be a pig by holding on too long, will quickly get slaughtered when the true faces of the politicians emerge later this month or early Dec.

Well said without bias in there. Soon if they keep it up the third party of indipendents will start to grow. There will soon be more of a move to get the longer term guys out to get power back to the people.
I agree 1380 may happen if things settle down near Isreal and both sides of our goverment keep trying to have a deal.:notrust:

 

[Bquat]

I might enter today to follow the right shoulder up.ANYBODY AGREE?

 

[Mcqlives]

I might enter today to follow the right shoulder up.ANYBODY AGREE?

I wish I had jumped in on Friday to catch the start of it...but yes, I agree.

 

[Birchtree]

I usually believe that buying parabolic acceleration can result in a wise strategy.

 

[Mcqlives]

I usually believe that buying parabolic acceleration can result in a wise strategy.

I think you are saying that it is going to be a huge shoulder! I hope you are right. If this peters out without breaking 1402ish then this will be a very short trade for me.