Bquat's Account Talk

[Bquat]

Back from mommy detail. Market is coilling. So, let's go.

 

[Bquat]

My computer went skitzo on me. Just got it back up. Well the move was oppisite as I thought but we're still above my 5 day. So the call is stay in.

 

[Bquat]

Right after IFT time. Let's see if the channel hold again.

 

[Bquat]

Friday redraw day. I redrew the old channel which gives us perspective on the importance of my 13 DMA. Also continued using the same color. Drew in a Fib. Retracement for support levels. In the other chart I zoomed in and drew a 1 % channel and was supprised what came up.
Little Bull says "we're ok the trend is still our friend."
Little Bear says " the trend may still be your friend, but I took you down low enought that you had to redraw the channel and you couldn't hold the 5 DMA."
I say it could have been worse and we finished ok for a friday. I hope it wasn't just a low volume drift up after people went home for the weekend.:worried:

Contrary or supportive comments welcomed.

 

[Bquat]

We'll I removed the small channel and we got below the current channel. Were at -1 1/2% and testing my line in the sand.:worried: Hope it hold's.

 

[Mcqlives]

I had my line at 1352 but am now thinking that if the bears win this it will fall very quickly. 1 more hour to decide.

 

[Bquat]

I had my line at 1352 but am now thinking that if the bears win this it will fall very quickly. 1 more hour to decide.

I see support at 1354 and that's just less than 2% but this Bear flag got's me a little worried.:worried: I'll have to ponder this because we'll already take this loss and 2% may be a good correction. I still have to concern my Capital preservation mode and the 13 day normally is my exit point. Thinking thinking? Humm I still be above 0% this year. Thinking some more.

 

[Bquat]

I had my line at 1352 but am now thinking that if the bears win this it will fall very quickly. 1 more hour to decide.

Ok I'll hang another day with you. Dips have been bought before and the tracker is buying this dip. Ol well we'll see.
TSP Talk AutoTracker

 

[jkenjohnson]

Ok I'll hang another day with you. Dips have been bought before and the tracker is buying this dip. Ol well we'll see.
TSP Talk AutoTracker

I'm still in too. My system is still on a buy - for what it is worth.

 

[FAB1]

tracker also buying much on Mar 1. Made me decide to stay away.

 

[Bquat]

Ok, decision was made. Staying in was my call. Now to back that up. Everybody and his brother have been asking for a correction over 1% to buy in on. So here it is I hope. We are at only the first Fib. line. We are above support of the Bullish trend and my 20 day (monthly) is at less that -2% from our top. So let's hold on. I'm giving this correction a chance to work. As always contrary posts are welcomed. I may be trying to be too bullish. Ok that a quick message from Little Bear.

 

[Bquat]

tracker also buying much on Mar 1. Made me decide to stay away.

You could be right. Little Bear says to Little Bull's statement " that's what they all said last year when they were trying to catch a falling knife." Last year we were seeing 4% swings before the drop and I think there's more that a 50% chance for a buy in at this level or before we reach 1352.

 

[Mcqlives]

In for one more day (at least). Between you and Pretzel (see link/chart) the upside potential is still at the front of my head!

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xTHwmYAg59g/T1R3HvW-t1I/AAAAAAAABWc/hOfBGnmDLBc/s1600/spx+alt+channel.png

 

[Bquat]

In for one more day (at least). Between you and Pretzel (see link/chart) the upside potential is still at the front of my head!

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xTHwmYAg59g/T1R3HvW-t1I/AAAAAAAABWc/hOfBGnmDLBc/s1600/spx+alt+channel.png

Thanks, I had narrowed my channel to a 1% channel and got kind of a bearish feeling and that went away when I checked the longer term. Your chart shows it quite well.

 

[Mcqlives]

We have to be careful though. That 1% could hit 5% real quick with the kind of wind up we have.

 

[Bquat]

Ok, I'm back. What I see is a rounded bottom reversal pattern that has recaptured my 13 day. It also may be a cup and handle but I don't have simicircle capabilities. I feel we have a 60/40 chance of going back up. Any edumicated guesses???
Ok now to catch up on others postings.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

I thinks we might have one more flat to slightly lower day before one more move up to new highs. Then the floor may be pulled from under our feet. I will hold on myself. , 100% S.

 

[amoeba]

I thinks we might have one more flat to slightly lower day before one more move up to new highs. Then the floor may be pulled from under our feet. I will hold on myself. , 100% S.

I don't. I see a near term (next 8 trading sessions), limited, pull-back to ~50 EMA (675) and then a move to 709; I can't see beyond that, however. The flatness is already here, so next move to be more extreme.

 

[Bquat]

Thanks for the comments guys. Thanks for the contrarian post Amoeba. Need to let everyone know the good and bad possibilities. Well my 13 day held and we made it back to the channel. Makes me a little more confortable staying in. Did show a little weakness end of day. Is that part of a cup and handle? I don't know but we did show a little support and I don't think this was a small bounce before going more down. Tomorrow will tell.

 

[Bquat]

I'm going to go with the cup and handle.

Cup and Handle Definition | Investopedia