Bquat's Account Talk

[Mcqlives]

Well I was wrong here. I thought the market would sell off in the afternoon. Well it continued to creep up to the 1332 and settle at 1330....Maybe back down to 1318?

We were both wrong! I knew yesterday would end strong but thought today would only give a little back or be close to flat for COB. Doesn't look like much of a chance of that now. The 1318 mark is soundly broken and it seems to be bouncing off the intraday March 2nd highs of around 1312-1314. If thatt point is broke then away we go down to the 1200's. I am hopeful that this is just a profit/sell the news day being driven by a few percent of the worlds oil and that we go back up to and through the 1358 mark next week!

Happy weekend all!

 

[Bquat]

Low base forming bad. 1304ish and maybe 1297 to the bottom of the channel again. Can we swing up again after those two levels. I don't know but the news was bought once already and I think people may be more bearish this time and not buy the dip. This market is weak and we need more consolidation before trying again. 70/30 bearish.

 

[FAB1]

Oh look the market went up quite a lot and Oil didnt go down a bit, in fact its still going up.

Stock bargins out there aint going sit around for long.

 

[Mcqlives]

And 1312 is getting poked at again with 1/2 hour left. Trend is down but, if the 1312 can hold Monday should be a better day. If it breaks I hope the 1297ish can hold. If it doesn't I am out for a long long time.

 

[Bquat]

I give up. What was bullish at the end of the day?

 

[Bquat]

Well, in review of the videos the market is neutral.

The past couple of weeks S&P has been in a sideways consolidation channel between the levels of 1302 bottom and a 1332 top +/- alittle.

Some say there may be a breakout next week because the market is coiling up for a move. No straight foward gess as to what direction.

My stab at this is with the increase in volitility but staying within these levels we are looking for a trend reversal. 60/40 bearish.

Nobody would agree with this because QE2 is keeping the market skewed toward the bullish side and what is normally is an over-bought condition is not the case.

Sooo 55/45 bearish

So watch for a break of 1302 or 1332 while we make these 30 pts swings.

PS
FAB1 and Mcqlives, thanks for going tit for tat with me. It makes this more fun.

 

[Bquat]

The current consolidation channel for the last couple of weeks is between 1332 and 1302. My resistance and support levels for 2011 are:

1557 October 2007 peak
1425 May 2008 lower high before all hell broke loose.
1385
1343 2011 peak in Feb, strong resistance Extreme chance of double top
1332 Top of channel, (2 week) double top chance strong resistance.
1327 resistance
1322 Current S&P level
1318 support
1309 support
1302 Bottom of Channel, (2 week) double bottom chance strong resistance.
1297 support
1282 strong support
1275 suport
1270 support
1257 last chance support before major correction

 

[Mcqlives]

Nice summary on the supports and one I am following as well. I just hope that 1297 holds if it comes to a bear s(*t on the market. As for the earlier question on how last Friday ended bullish...it obviously didn't but it did show some consolidations off of the lows and the support levels head. Combine that with the recent trends (past 2 weeks) and the anticipated market reports this week and I thought we would see a short bull run back up to upper resistance.

Of course, I also thought BO would place a no fly zone or at least borrow Hillary's manly parts and at tell that idiot that if his jets fired on civilians they would be shot down. I was way wrong on this angle so I could easily be wrong on a short bull run.

Your welcome on the friendly banter! I rarely post on here (often months between posts). But I do look in several times a week.

 

[Bquat]

Wow, rejected at 1327, not even making it to 1302. 1318 didn't even act as support and 1314 acting as new resistance? Market real weak today and seeming more bearish and maybe created a bear flag at 1315 and set it as another lower high.

I'm 60/40 bearish with the drift up dying at 1315 instead of drifting up to 1318 resistance.

Another hour and I can see what others say in the daily videos.

 

[Mcqlives]

Wow, rejected at 1327, not even making it to 1302. 1318 didn't even act as support and 1314 acting as new resistance? Market real weak today and seeming more bearish and maybe created a bear flag at 1315 and set it as another lower high.

I'm 60/40 bearish with the drift up dying at 1315 instead of drifting up to 1318 resistance.

Another hour and I can see what others say in the daily videos.

Again, agreed. But is this a bear dip in a bull run or are we at the beginning of a major correction or (the one I am hoping for) are we going to bounce off of the 1302/1297/1282 marks and shoot higher? This early in the month I am willing to preserve my moves and see what happens for 1 or 2 more days.

 

[Bquat]

Again, agreed. But is this a bear dip in a bull run or are we at the beginning of a major correction or (the one I am hoping for) are we going to bounce off of the 1302/1297/1282 marks and shoot higher? This early in the month I am willing to preserve my moves and see what happens for 1 or 2 more days.

1297 is the 50 day moving average, which we haven't touched in some while, could be a good bounce point. A lot of traiders like to place their bets as we get to moving averages. 1302 is still the key though as strong support lately.

The coil being talked about is the setting of lower highs and higher lows is causing a triangle formation where the market jumps when it gets compressed and breakes out of the tip of the triangle. We need to get a lower low like to 1302 or back up to 1331 to break the triangle.

 

[Mcqlives]

1297 is the 50 day moving average, which we haven't touched in some while, could be a good bounce point. A lot of traiders like to place their bets as we get to moving averages. 1302 is still the key though as strong support lately.

The coil being talked about is the setting of lower highs and higher lows is causing a triangle formation where the market jumps when it gets compressed and breakes out of the tip of the triangle. We need to get a lower low like to 1302 or back up to 1331 to break the triangle.

How about 1306.86 (I hope!)?

 

[Bquat]

How about 1306.86 (I hope!)?

Higher low. Hope we get above 1327 for higher high. 1323 may hold for lower high. Triangle still in effect.

 

[FAB1]

I C a Curve forming in the S&P

Have we hit that Glass Ceiling again?? :notrust:

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Have we hit that Glass Ceiling again?? :notrust:

More like transparent aluminum, stronger...

 

[FAB1]

More like transparent aluminum, stronger...

Some kinda of Trekkie are we? Oops, how did I KNOW that?

 

[Mcqlives]

OK...Broke that 1323 for a second today before butting that ceiling over and over the rest of the afternoon. Looking at just under 1323 for the close. This afternoon gave us a little head and shoulders so I am looking out for a breakout (direction?) in the morning. I am hopeful that with oil prices calming, Saudis talking pacification, and earnings reports looking good that the breakout will be up.

 

[Bquat]

OK...Broke that 1323 for a second today before butting that ceiling over and over the rest of the afternoon. Looking at just under 1323 for the close. This afternoon gave us a little head and shoulders so I am looking out for a breakout (direction?) in the morning. I am hopeful that with oil prices calming, Saudis talking pacification, and earnings reports looking good that the breakout will be up.

If we go down tomorrow and break the neckline at 1309 it would be the completion of the head and shouder.

But we have been getting higher lows lately and about the same highs which is forming a bullish pennant acording to Des.

http://freeonlinetradingeducation.com/

If we can break to a lower low like 1305ish and hold we will break the bullish pennant and complete the head and shoulders and be very bearish.

Even though I'm still bearish, I don't think we'll go that low. We still haven't broken 1330 yet where bulls will win and we couldn't even get up to 1327 resistance to build a high base like it did at 1318 today. Tomorrow maybe 1318 will hold or 1310.

 

[Bquat]

Ok, today the market just finished with a ringing effect looking for direction.

It is now like a small pennant within a pennant. IT is like the coil is sprung and ready to spring out. Oscar is calling it the eleven day pattern which should of restarted up today. Des won't call up or down. Brion says watch levels for direction.

http://www.livewithoscar.com/DailyVideo.aspx

http://freeonlinetradingeducation.com/

http://www.thestockmentor.com/market-videos

But I did like the little spill Brion had on head and shoulders both a head and shoulders in the S&P and an inverted head and shoulders also. I recall once when Oscar said when you get head and shoulders within head and shoulders you're looking at a trend reversal, but I can't remember if they all had to be regular with no inverted ones.

I'm still bearish 60/40. We'll go down slightly again tomorrow and a drift waiting for news on Friday. I think more that the break will be down since we could't break back over 1322, but Oscar is a lot smarter than me.
1307ish maybe back up to 1318.

What you think Mc FAB take a shot at it.

 

[Bquat]

If 1302 holds as resistance and we don't get back above 1307, it will be a bear flag and also break the neckline of the head and shoulders and also set another lower high.

Oil is going down but I wander if it will be enought.