Bquat's Account Talk

[Bquat]

Test of 1300 yesterday and twice today already. I don't know if it can hold much longer. Not much of a bounce off it.:worried:

 

[nasa1974]

Test of 1300 yesterday and twice today already. I don't know if it can hold much longer. Not much of a bounce off it.:worried:

Looks pretty scary.

 

[Bquat]

Saw the dip in AGG about 1300 EST again today. Thought it was a fluke yesterday Is it the Fed calling to take funds out of bonds to put in the market to hold ud in the bullish channel. It worked yesterday. Is this a stronger QE2 effect?

I don't know but it's not working as good as yesterday. But at least it is holding the 1300 S&P level. Maybe a drift up but not as fast as yesterday.

 

[Bquat]

No dead cat bounce and we did bounce off 1300 but didn't get back above 1315 to build the lower base. I'm more bearish because this confirms a bearish flag and with a lower low and lower high it confirms more down trend...

I think this is still relavent:

This is looking soo much like the November 5th correction. Had a good buy up just before the 5th triggering profit taking and about a 3 to 4 percent correction and return to the QE2 bull trend buy in. So maybe the turn soon, maybe 1295 or 1282ish, and back to the Bull.

Well maybe now we go up.

Just trying to get bullish here. If 1300 acts as resistance we'll have another lower high and another lower low. This is a good level to watch. It can have a strong effect on tomorrows market.

 

[BooDog]

Well maybe now we go up.

Just trying to get bullish here. If 1300 acts as resistance we'll have another lower high and another lower low. This is a good level to watch. It can have a strong effect on tomorrows market.

"Well maybe now we go up."
lol

Looks like the low caught some support at 1297 and with the RSI just barely dipping below the 50 it's really a tough call to see what tomorrow brings. And a Friday at that. The RSI may seem a bit trivial as a sole indicator but it helped find the top since its failed to break the 80 line for how long? And if it doesn't hold the 50 line at close? Just look at the 2 year chart and see how deep the dips went - yikes. I've seen some bears saying we shouldn't have even broken the 1300 line so now we need to reset. We'll see, If we see a decent bounce tomorrow I'm tempted to bail and wait to see what happens next week but at the same time that 1300 line could give some decent support. Good luck Bquat, just sharing my thoughts. Looking better going into the close so far.
SPY 2 year chart, if the link works...
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p22092116066&r=8810

 

[Bquat]

Well maybe now we go up.

Just trying to get bullish here. If 1300 acts as resistance we'll have another lower high and another lower low. This is a good level to watch. It can have a strong effect on tomorrows market.

Well 1300 was broken yesterday and I see that we went up. So the bottom of the bullish channel held just like in Novenber and we can get even higher highs maybe 1385, 1400 or maybe more as we go back to the top of the channel.

 

[Bquat]

Resistance at:
1318
1330
1332
1343
1385
1400 top?
1418
1455
1500

 

[Birchtree]

Further down the road 1700 might be a close for 2011 but is still not the top.

 

[Appatite]

Resistance at:
1318
1330
1332
1343
1385
1400 top?
1418
1455
1500

I can't tell but are you guys just making up these resistance numbers or is there something to them? Personally I like 1319, 1329, etc:cheesy:

 

[Bquat]

I can't tell but are you guys just making up these resistance numbers or is there something to them? Personally I like 1319, 1329, etc:cheesy:

I spread the S&P out 1 to 3 months and look for hesitations for on the way down and these will be hesitations and resistance for the way back up. the more time it took to break a level to go up or down the stronger it is to break the next time.

Then I spread it out 3 years and look for the peaks and valleys where it hesitated at before. A prior major peak is sometimes harder to break because a lot or people fear the bearishnis and big dip as you don't break over it and form a double top. This fear sometimes causes it like cause and effect. Comming off of a peak takes out the scared person's stops causing a sell and now that we have computers duing trading it has a cascading effect:

Timid people's have their stops real close and they sell at a slight downward hesitation.

There sell causes causes a larger group's stops to be met causing them to sell.

There sell causes an even larger group to sell...and so on.

So all in all you can get a couple weeks, or even a month's worth of profits taken away in a day or two.

 

[Bquat]

Further down the road 1700 might be a close for 2011 but is still not the top.

I don't know about that Birch. I think there will be so much fear of a double top at 1549 that it will cause the double top itself. There will be a hesitation and then sell off buy nervious people who have their stops set too tight. Then there will be more selling causing more stops to be violated and so on. Remember weeks and months up, hours and days down causing large losses. Just a guess here.

 

[Birchtree]

With the S&P 500 trading at about 14 times 2011 earnings per share, there is life in the rally yet. Besides, mom and pop are returning to the market.

 

[Bquat]

Gap up, sell off the gap, drift up to near resistance level,

Gap up, sell off the gap, drift up to near resistance level,

The last two days look like someone is tring to buy up the market at opening gate and more buy up to resistance then selling back down and a low volume drift up in the afternoon seems like people want to be bullish but looks like they sell when the resistance level isn't broken.

1330 to 1332 is a stronger resistance level and we may have to do some consolidation here. I don't think will gap this one without some strenghtening. It's been tried twice to jump start another bullish run, at least were above the 20 day but I'm not bullish until the 1332 is broken and I hope were not just establishing a lower high here.

 

[Bquat]

Well 1318 was tested twice and failed the second time. QE2 needs to start buying now or we'll drop to 1310 is or even 1300. I guess the bullish people learned their lession trying to over jump the market in the mornings thinking to jump in before gains. S&P still needs some consolidation before building back up. Maybe between 1330 and 1310. I hope this isn't a lower high and the market continues dowm.

 

[Bquat]

don't like this bottom base building. Bearish

 

[Mcqlives]

Well 1318 was tested twice and failed the second time. QE2 needs to start buying now or we'll drop to 1310 is or even 1300. I guess the bullish people learned their lession trying to over jump the market in the mornings thinking to jump in before gains. S&P still needs some consolidation before building back up. Maybe between 1330 and 1310. I hope this isn't a lower high and the market continues dowm.

Both short term markers on the S&P are close, one at 1306 and the other at 1297, both hit on the 24th last month. So far the 1306 level has been flirted with but has held twice. If it can hold for another few we may see a Bullish climb at the end here and then have a repeat of the 25th. If the bears take over and go through the 1306, I do not see the 1297 holding either. Then down to the lower 1200's we go sooner than I thought we would!

 

[Mcqlives]

OK...what direction do we go tomorrow? Talk about a bs ending of a day!

 

[Bquat]

OK...what direction do we go tomorrow? Talk about a bs ending of a day!

Tomorrow is a tough call:

If we drop to 1306ish and hold it may be considered short term bullish because it will be a double bottom and stoping on 1297 would be a double bottom also.

Todays action kind of established 1330 as a lower high and if we go below 1297, we will established a lower low which is very bearish.

The two false jump starts in the previous two days kind of denied a bullish push and may be a short term victory for the bears. Not consolidating under 1330 to make a high base is bearish also because strength was not shown after the bounce after 1297 was hit. So I am kind of bearish myself and I think we droped out of the bullish trend.

Watch the videos in poolman's thread later and see what they say.
I've been guessing real good lately but thats not always the case.

I've been trying to guess direction first and then go watch these guys to see how I've done. They may even have a post by now.

http://freeonlinetradingeducation.com/

http://www.thestockmentor.com/market-videos

 

[Bquat]

Belows post is still good except for after reviewing the videos:

The bounce range is more defined to:

The S&P may bounce at 1300 because it's strong support.

May bounce at 1297 as a double bottom.

Best chance of a bounce at 1292 the 50 day moving average like in the last of January.

So there's three chances to bounce and below 1290 will be the lower low. Bearish

 

[FAB1]

Belows post is still good except for after reviewing the videos:

The bounce range is more defined to:

The S&P may bounce at 1300 because it's strong support.

May bounce at 1297 as a double bottom.

Best chance of a bounce at 1292 the 50 day moving average like in the last of January.

So there's three chances to bounce and below 1290 will be the lower low. Bearish

My hopes are on 1300 as strong support, but the overseas markets are hurting pretty bad - looks like our dip yesterday overflowed on to them.

Glad I am not in the I fund today at any rate.