Bquat's Account Talk

[Bquat]

test

 

[Bquat]

Hey Birch,
Christian says that the Dow is at the upper bolinger band and one of his charts shows that the S&P is near it's also. He says that this could cause a sell in the near future. Doesn't QE2 effect negates this by continuing to push the market up and can unnaturaly stretch the upper band. This effect can delay the selloff for weeks.

http://perfectstockalert.undergodincorporated.com/market-videos

 

[KevinD]

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator in pdf

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=8633

Read the whole thing but in particular...at this point in time...read chapter 5 about "Old Turkey."

"Why, this is a bull market!"

 

[Bquat]

Thanks Kevin I'll check it out.

 

[Lostdawg]

Second the thanks for the book link Kevin.

 

[Bquat]

I think the markets are waiting for Birch to wake up and then they'll start going.

 

[Bquat]

See that they're moving after his first post. The reason for Birchism is that he is like that lead bull in the bull run. Everyone moves out of his way and all the other bulls follow his lead. I don't have his fortitude but I like reading his post when I need a pickup.

 

[Birchtree]

We probably won't have a correction but a consolidation is inevitable and I'm waiting for it without fear - hit me with your best shot. Since 1940 there has never been more than one 10% (or more) correction in an ongoing bull market. We may get a blow off spike top to 1400 before we turn down into the March lows ahead. The 1400 level is a good target for this upleg. I'm using the VIX as a contrarian indicator and watching 14.66. But I'll probably get caught with the blind side regardless what I try to do. Otherwise, I'll just keep on buying flower power.

 

[Bquat]

Well S&P 1330, thought maybe a bounce down after hitting it. We hit it and went only down a little and tested it again and only went down only to 1329. Did we just run out of time to get back down to 1327? I don't think so. I think it just was a hesitation from hitting a strong resistance point.

Here's the 50/50 chance question?

Do we do a repeat of last Monday's performance after a bullish Friday and jump above 1330 and drift up towards 1385?

Or do we consolidate here and build a new high base around 1330.

My guess is the jump. Some bears may think this is a good place to short the market but I didn't see any sell off. I think QE2 is still making the market bullish and some strong bad economic news is needed to negate it's effect.

Just my guess and daily practice of guessing the C fund.

Now time to make the coffee and watch market video's and see if they think the same. Some of them should be posted by now.

We consolidate here and build a new high base around 1330.

I was just giving a bullish try. I do like how we broke 1330 this is gooood.
Now maybe the up turn, we had a slight dip and still got a higher high with the dip being bought.

 

[Bquat]

S&P 1320 should be a support area and we should see a turn up there.
I was suprised we didn't stop or hessitate on 1327. Maybe there's more volatility for options week causing larger swings. But over all were still in a bullish trend and the dips still should be bought.

 

[Bquat]

S&P 1320 should be a support area and we should see a turn up there.
I was suprised we didn't stop or hessitate on 1327. Maybe there's more volatility for options week causing larger swings. But over all were still in a bullish trend and the dips still should be bought.

I did start typing this before I saw the bounce. Trust me.
I just use two fingers to type and they were crossed so it take a while.

 

[Bquat]

Well mad it back above 1327. Bears did not take control. Still building a high base near the 1330 area. A down day tomorrow of 1% could confirm a down trend beginning. Small loss with a drift up whould be a bullish flag.

I think getting back to 1327 is bullish and were just having a little trouble breaking and staying above the strong resistance of 1330. Another day of consolidation and we rise again.

 

[Birchtree]

If you are right I'll be deep in the pansy park surrounded by lovely flowers.

 

[Bquat]

I did not see 1337 as a resistance point.

But it looks like 1330 may be support.

It also can be a little bear flag with a continued sell as people take profit.

 

[Bquat]

Well today 1337 proved it self to be a reisitance point and 1330 was tested and held as support.

I don't know how the market seams to hit the support level and just drift slowly back up to the resistance level by the end of the day. I've seen this several times now. I'm not talking about getting bullish after the bounce and retesting the resistance and stoping. Maybe this is how QE2 is working. They figure how much is needed to get back up and slowly put it in to meet the resistance point at 4 PM. What do you guys think?

Well no matter what it still the same pattern of meeting resistance consolidate and go up again.

Now 1385 and 1400 are going to be very strong resistance levels. People's fixaction on even levels will make 1400 hard like 1200 and 1300 before it. 1385 to 1400 was the lower high in April 2008 before the bottom fell out of the market. That's why there is such a gloom and doom about reaching this area and failing and having a big correction.

If you redraw the SPX chart over the period of Jan 1997 to today, you might see a MA pattern. In a MA pattern there's a 95% chance that the S&P may drop to the bottom of the M (900). I don't know if the pattern will work over this long of time period. Might have to ask JTH about this one. It may even be a failed pattern from June of 2010. Maybe Quantative Easing help to break the pattern and kept us in a bullish pattern. Ok that's the worst case senario.

QE2 is working and the market is still slightly bullish and this is just my thoughts.

 

[Bquat]

Ok I might have the chart?:worried:

Red line bottom of M. Blue line is where it might have failed.

 

[Bquat]

Today was just a low volume drift up with 1330 as support again. The slow upward drift still went through 1337 pretty much like it didn't matter.
Short outlook still bullish.

Seems like were waiting for negative news to increase volume in this market. Maybe even the bears have given up on fighting the Fed and are sitting on the sidelines to short this market on any bad news.

I guess I'm just gloomy today.:worried: I just don't feel right.

Good luck Birch.

I go watch videos yes? Get over this I will?

 

[Bquat]

The question is?

 

[Bquat]

Wow this is a change. The market going up at a good pace on Friday, not just a drift up with a little more buying at the end of the day. Is this capituation on the bears behalf or may this be a market exhausion move?

Can this be the afterburners Birch talks about? Sure looks like some buying programs are kicking in today. Is this a bull trap to pull in little buyers before the correction?

Same channel, same station, holy cow Batman.

Ok back to reality. A good jump in the market can trigger profit taking or jump us up over a resistance level but I don't see one until 1385. So what's happening here? If I knew, I would be a trader and what do I know.

That what's good about this board, everybody has an opinion in is willing to share it to help each other out. You must keep emotions out of the market. But my spidey sense is felling a little bearish even with this move up.:worried:

 

[nasa1974]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a strong sell off before closing bell. Profit taking before the last week of February and the holiday.