Bquat's Account Talk

[rangerray]

I've no yards to mow today, so I'll play.

The urge to buy is real. It's what we've gotten used to over the last few years. A lot of folks must be sitting on the starting line waiting for the pistol to fire. It's tough to sit by idly when you know that any rally is going to be explosive.

 

[James48843]

Tough call.

What are the odds that the weekend will result in a one-day jump on Monday? In and out over a weekend?

Risky. (Flips a coin)


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[cmil1212]

Tough call.

What are the odds that the weekend will result in a one-day jump on Monday? In and out over a weekend?

Risky. (Flips a coin)


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It’s pretty much calling it blind with a 12 noon deadline. Such as making an itf on Wednesday before knowing fed reaction. Market can move too fast for us.


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[Bquat]

It’s pretty much calling it blind with a 12 noon deadline. Such as making an itf on Wednesday before knowing fed reaction. Market can move too fast for us.


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I have always had a theory that any company handling TSP IFT's can day buy or sell during trading day to get a better position on price before making the end of trading day move for us.

 

[Bquat]

Did somebody say Whipsaw? :cheesy:

 

[Bquat]

Plunge Protection Team will have to do a bigger buy to stop the breakout confirmation. Another lower gap fill. Will smart buyers continue to buy at these levels to try to turn this to cover their yesterday losses? I don't trust this but that's me: :notrust:

I am saying the breakout is confirmed and momentum is down except for buying to try to slow the S fund drop down after being 20% down. JMHO So, watching the Midterm box and may drop the bottom to PPT1 level if it holds as resistance on the way up. For the Perma-Bulls I made the bottom of the consolidation a Dead Cat Bounce to gage it buying will continue. My thinking is that the bottom tails are efforts to turn the tide before the C Fund follows: :suspicious:

 

[Bquat]

If you think a bottom is forming let me know because there's a 60/40 chance that you will see it before me. I have a slight bearish tendency I can't rid myself of. The point by point comments in the previous post is on my thinking and may not be 100% correct so I will take 60/40. :cheesy: Please comment if you have something to say about direction.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Bquat, You are spot on with that ! I think the same thing. They have No motivation to change it. I think they are lining their pockets using our money to make money for themselves each afternoon. Obviously no proof and I should hope it would be illegal. Hummm...

I have always had a theory that any company handling TSP IFT's can day buy or sell during trading day to get a better position on price before making the end of trading day move for us.

 

[bleeck]

Being illegal has NEVER stopped Wall Street B4!

 

[Mcqlives]

Hi Bquat! Hope all is well! I've been out on the lilly pad since the end of last year expecting this drop...boy it has been a long wait. I'm not calling a bottom but i will say that at this point I would like to see the SnP drop another 150 points or so before even thinking about looking for an entry.

Someone on here made a comment a year or two ago citing their moves over the years along with their returns. Forgot who it was but their 5 or 6 moves over 15-20 years had close to my returns with me making several moves a year. I must say that their way is much easier, especially in retirement. I figure I waited this long, I can ride this bear down as long as it takes...

 

[Bquat]

This is an exhaustion move. Spidey is satisfied. I don't know for sure this is it but 60/40 thinking it is because I have too. We need to form a bottom here:

 

[Bquat]

This is an exhaustion move. Spidey is satisfied. I don't know for sure this is it but 60/40 thinking it is because I have too. We need to form a bottom here:

It looked like it tried to get back above the lower low line but nope too bad out there. I made a Spidey area that I hope a bottom will form but don't know if it will work now: :worried:

 

[Mcqlives]

I fear your spidey may be off....but hope not. With the S taking the nose dive I expect the C to adjust in se similar way. Too many of the 500 own stakes in the 4500...so either balance sheet adjustments or stock buy backs will need to be done. QE ending and QT beginning haven't been talked about in the mainstream....when the talking heads do then the nasty recession word will follow. Hope markets stabilize before that happens.

 

[Bquat]

Lower Low line just acted as resistance showing 60/40 that the Spidey bottom may not be forming. Still early yet: :suspicious:

 

[Mcqlives]

Thanks for the Chart (just like for the past several years, lol). Quite a while ago I told myself I would sniff when the SnP got to the 3950 range. Today's intra-day low was 3958... so it's right there...but I can't make myself even think about sniffing with how the markets are acting. I think the FED waited too long to start curbing the influence of their QE along with the stimulus printing. Now their QT won't be able to rely on bond buy-backs as a significant contribution to tighten because inflation is too drastic. I don't feel a soft landing is remotely possible at this point. In fact, I think we are past any concept of "soft" with what is happening. I will wait to see what tomorrows CPI brings but, IMO, unless we see 8 or under then what the fed has done so far will be shrugged off. Only way the markets will consider the bottom in is if CPI beats the expectation of 8.1.

On a scary note...I heard some radio analyst (didn't catch the name) talking this afternoon that for the SnP to match the decline of the Wilshire 4500 it would need to get t0 the low 3400's. When I got home and ran the number against the DWCPF,the SnP would have to sink to the low 3200's to match the percentage decline, from the highs, of the DWCPF. No idea if these are options for what the market will bring...but some scary numbers regardless.

 

[Bquat]

Nice bottom tail at the bottom of Spidey's box but we still closed lower (red line). Still not a bottom forming but less selling. So. watch and see mode and I'm still 60/40 bearish but again that's just me: :blink:

 

[Bquat]

So, is this a bounce I was looking for at Spidey's worst-case box? I don't know if we're just Dead Cat Bouncing but I'm watching. Adjusted Midterm for today's action because I can: :cheesy:

 

[Epic]

Any gaps below the one that needs to be filled, or is that the final one??? I follow your charts all the time, and I think that's the last one, but I could be mistaken. :dunno:
Thank you ! ! ! !

 

[Bquat]

Any gaps below the one that needs to be filled, or is that the final one??? I follow your charts all the time, and I think that's the last one, but I could be mistaken. :dunno:
Thank you ! ! ! !

One more: :worried:

 

[Epic]

Ahhh ...... I see. Thats good to know. Thank you :fing02: