Bquat's Account Talk

[Bquat]

Kind of went from pop and drop to drop and pop. If today's bottom holds tomorrow I will redraw the Midterm channel (dotted Line) to line up with the bottom then parallel the top of the channel.

Ok redrew Midterm Channel:

 

[Bquat]

I guess the plasma news was good. This was a pop and drop open which is why the candle is red. So we pop to the top resistance and then down to near the bottom of my new midterm then back up. So higher volatility this morning. So I be thinking it's only up for the news and the coin is heading back down from the flip.:notrust: Not entering while we still so close to the last pre=covid top:

 

[Bquat]

Still seeing a little weakness in the S Fund even with the pushed good news (plasma/antivirus maybe October). Market not following or believing it but I'm not seeing a breakdown. Resistance tested again and holding::worried:

 

[nasa1974]

I was happier when the "S" fund was out performing the "C" fund. ;damnit

 

[Bquat]

Still seeing a little weakness in the S Fund even with the pushed good news (plasma/antivirus maybe October). Market not following or believing it but I'm not seeing a breakdown. Resistance tested again and holding::worried:

Yea what he said:

 

[flalaw97]

I like this midterm channel and I am reminding my brain (which says it can't last) to listen to the charts and look for the signs. Waiting for the NAAIM Exposure Index to come out today and see where the "smart" money is, and see if the strong start this morning fades. VIX remains low, K and D slow stochastics are both back over 80 (waiting to see if they can re-embed - >80 for 3 days in a row). C fund numbers (embedded all month?) look better. There is so much I don't know but the things I have learned from everyone on this site lead me to believe we are still ok in equities, this week.

 

[Bquat]

Is this a breakout? I don't think so but does anybody really know in the news based market. Might be a topping Doji::blink:

 

[Bquat]

Looks like I missed 5 % this month. Maybe I'm staying too bearish.

 

[flalaw97]

Too bearish for who? It seems like your approach is where you are comfortable - willing to miss a little on the upside to be sure not to lose much on the downside.

 

[Bquat]

Well good news from the Fed popped us up again. Are we there yet? Will the March high hold as resistance? Does anybody really know? Bottom of Longterm channel acting as resistance:

 

[Bquat]

Well good news from the Fed popped us up again. Are we there yet? Will the March high hold as resistance? Does anybody really know? Bottom of Longterm channel acting as resistance:

Announcement of an antivirus in October and possible 23% gain in next GDP announcement gave a post rally pop. I don't know if it will happen but as always possible good news always comes out when we are at resistance. I also don't know if good news is saved up to be released when needed. So I will be missing more gains and guess the top when it happens: :nuts:

 

[Bquat]

Shortening my Longterm and Midterm channels for a pre September chart. Surprised how bullish the Short term (New Midterm) is. Don't think I want to enter after missing this move:

 

[Bquat]

The bottom of my Midterm wasn't parallel so I fixed it:

 

[Bquat]

My internet is so slow because of online classes so I will try to post earlier next time.

 

[flalaw97]

Shortening my Longterm and Midterm channels for a pre September chart. Surprised how bullish the Short term (New Midterm) is. Don't think I want to enter after missing this move:

What do you mean by "Don't think I want to enter after missing this move" ? If the chart is bullish, and the slow stochastics are embedded, VIX is down and NAAIM is strong bullish, wouldn't you want to get in, for September, even if you missed the beginning? Or is there a concern that using your first IFT to get in, then having it downturn and have to get out, you would be done for September?

 

[flalaw97]

Thank you for posting! I love your charts - Yours is the first member's account talk I check when I get on tsp.talk

 

[Bquat]

What do you mean by "Don't think I want to enter after missing this move" ? If the chart is bullish, and the slow stochastics are embedded, VIX is down and NAAIM is strong bullish, wouldn't you want to get in, for September, even if you missed the beginning? Or is there a concern that using your first IFT to get in, then having it downturn and have to get out, you would be done for September?

If I had entered today it would have been on August leaving two IFT's for September. I didn't enter because I am slightly confused about the bullishness. I don't have a Spidey sense but I am Midterm confused and waiting for weakness that may not come. So in overthinking mode.

 

[flalaw97]

Got it. I think you are right that we are approaching the end of this rise. Kind of like when the roller coaster starts clicking slower and slower as it reaches the summit. The VIX went up a bit today so if the slow stochastics become unembedded or Thursday's NAAIM drops a bunch, I am thinking the first week in September will be the time to get off to see if there is a correction coming. I appreciate what you are doing for the site. :smile:

 

[nasa1974]

September is generally not a good month.

 

[Bquat]

I have no idea what happened this morning. Was it good news? Was it that the FDA would approve an antivirus even before a 3rd trial being completed?