Bquat's Account Talk

[Bquat]

I chickened out, I'm sitting pat to see how things unfold over the weekend - there's some noise out of Italy and I'm scared there will be some second guessing from the bulls and some re-grouping from the bears as the dust settles. I do think this market is moving higher in the intermediate term, they will pull the rug from under it eventually but now that the shorts have been obliterated, the hedgies and algos will have to engineer some pullback to hop onboard and that's when I'll jump in (wishful thinking on my part maybe), I thought it might happen today but it's holding up pretty good. I got to stop reading ZeroHedge, I was convinced the market was about to crater after the EU meeting Wed. night.

"the hedgies and algos will have to engineer some pullback to hop onboard and that's when I'll jump in" The problem with this is that it would have to happen soon but be news related. Investors though cautious will try to build from here. No Bull would like to lose the 200 again, even if they have to match Bears 50/50 to move sideways in consolidation. Just my theory and you know how theory goes.:notrust:

Above the 200 is buy the dip time and I probly have review Live with Oscar videos to see how the S&P moves around the 200. Maybe JTH or Uptrend can do a long term graph with the 200 on it?

I'll try to make a simple graft as to direction but hope it's up. Tuesday is when I need to be ready to make choices and as I said Spidey doesn't do gains well but I try to go me some.

 

[Bquat]

If we break 1300 S&P on Monday, I will consider that we may be following the Old Channel. If we bounce down off the 1300 or continue down below 1274 on Monday, I think we'll go to the bottom of the Bull Channel and retest 1260. I hope if we do go down below the 200 SMA that 1260 will hold and the channel will stay intact. It could be considered a failure of breaking the 200, but as I said I don't think the Bulls will let this happen.

Here's your simple charts trying to maintain the bullish outlook.


Comments: Any bears?

 

[cak165]

I still have this one IFT that I can use today before I lose it and trying to decide to move back into C/S before noon, not sure if it'll bounce from the morning lows or if losses will be extended and drift lower before the Fed meeting...I hate how TSP puts us at such a disadvantage to the entire market....

 

[Bquat]

I still have this one IFT that I can use today before I lose it and trying to decide to move back into C/S before noon, not sure if it'll bounce from the morning lows or if losses will be extended and drift lower before the Fed meeting...I hate how TSP puts us at such a disadvantage to the entire market....

Well we're down a little this morning because China is playing with the Yen making the dollar stronger and the market to drop a little. We have dropped below the 200 ma and I myself is hoping 1260 holds or a bounce back to 1275. Dips are normally bought above the 200 and I think the Bulls don't really want to lose sight of it so this may just be consolidation after the big move. Only time will tell. As in most cases it won't show direction or a bounce before IFT time. Watch the F fund (AGG) for a dip for maybe a bounce comming in stocks. Oh well I just saw the AGG go up confirming a move from stocks. So 40/60 chance of the dip being bought. Big money may buy later to recapture the 200 but we can't tell before our time limit. If I had and IFT I would wait untill I saw the bounce off 1260 because I'm in Capital Preservation mode.

 

[Bquat]

1267 looks like a line in the sand hopefully.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

 

[Bquat]

I still have this one IFT that I can use today before I lose it and trying to decide to move back into C/S before noon, not sure if it'll bounce from the morning lows or if losses will be extended and drift lower before the Fed meeting...I hate how TSP puts us at such a disadvantage to the entire market....

What did you do, now? just kidding.

 

[Bquat]

15 min after IFT deadline and the move starts. Go figure?:notrust:

Wish they can meet us 50/50 and go with a 2pm deadline and we go a 50/50 chance on seeing the move before deciding.

 

[cak165]

I'm going to wait until 3:45-3:50 today and see how the markets look by that point, I figure there won't be much change (up or down) tomorrow as the Fed meets. There's a lot going on this week, FOMC, Employment report, the G20, this MF Global bankruptcy and what implications it may have, any of which can send the markets up or down. I am starting to think that jumping in and out of the market with only 2 IFT's a month is going to put me at great disadvantage. I need a better strategy, been reading the Black Swan lately and I can't afford to to have it blown up C/S/I or even F because Portugal or Italy goes bankrupt over night...

 

[Bquat]

I'm going to wait until 3:45-3:50 today and see how the markets look by that point, I figure there won't be much change (up or down) tomorrow as the Fed meets. There's a lot going on this week, FOMC, Employment report, the G20, this MF Global bankruptcy and what implications it may have, any of which can send the markets up or down. I am starting to think that jumping in and out of the market with only 2 IFT's a month is going to put me at great disadvantage. I need a better strategy, been reading the Black Swan lately and I can't afford to to have it blown up C/S/I or even F because Portugal or Italy goes bankrupt over night...

Arn't you limited with the 12 PM EST deadline? How can you wait for 3:45. I have to do mine before 10 AM local.

 

[cak165]

I thought if I can submit it before the end of the day, it would still count as an October IFT and then I saw this:

"Your IFT counts in the calendar month we process it, not in the month you submit it."

 

[Bquat]

I thought if I can submit it before the end of the day, it would still count as an October IFT and then I saw this:

"Your IFT counts in the calendar month we process it, not in the month you submit it."

The IFT must be done before 12 PM EST to be done at the close today. After 12 pm it will be in effect for tomorrow's close of business (1 Nov) and be your first IFT for November.

 

[Bquat]

Ok Birch start buying right now. I want 1258 to 1260 to hold right now, so I don't have to redo charts.

 

[Bquat]

If I had and IFT I would wait untill I saw the bounce off 1260 because I'm in Capital Preservation mode.

After reviewing my charts, I may still be good. We're at the hairy edge of breaking both channels, if we haven't already broke the old channel. I had a couple to places to draw that one.
A move up tomorrow will keep both channels and I may hop in. What do you guys think? I'm glad the market waited for me and also gave me a chance to watch the critical bottoms of the channels in post and premarkets before deciding.

Tomorrow is still 50/50 coin toss because of the afternoon weakness. I would of liked going down and a little bounce at the bottom of the channels to show some strength at that point. With the end of day loss we have to watch for the channels to hold and a good move up.:worried:

I'll watch post market videos.

Here's the simple charts:

 

[Bquat]

Spidey did not like 1260 being broken and thinking about the afternoon weakness, I'm not thinking coin toss but maybe: Little Bear 60/40.

I tried to keep him out of this but spidey wanted the bounce off of 1260 and you know how he is when it comes to buying weakness below the 200 ma. I'm a little worried.:worried:

 

[Bquat]

Spidey did not like 1260 being broken and thinking about the afternoon weakness, I'm not thinking coin toss but maybe: Little Bear 60/40.

I tried to keep him out of this but spidey wanted the bounce off of 1260 and you know how he is when it comes to buying weakness below the 200 ma. I'm a little worried.:worried:

Spidey guesses the drop and saved me if I had an IFT left and peshes me not to use one now that I have two.

I don't buy dips under 200 ma and need to look for a good support area to think about trying for gain.

 

[Mcqlives]

The smoke is clearing a little and letting the bears finish what they started almost 2 months ago. I hope it ends soon so we can get into making money again!

 

[Bquat]

We are looking for a foothold with the failure to hold the 200 MA. Everyone is looking for support areas to bounce off of. Hoping for 1203 or 1190 to hold and the easy breaking of 1230 and 1220 makes it very scarry out there. The resent bull channel is broken. The 20 day saved us or do we just hessitate here or test th 50 day.

So little bear is back and isn't even thinking of getting out of the pond. Little Bull got backslapped so hard he fell below two good support levels.

Sitting in he pond pondering while cleaning the lilly pads for company. Little Bear 60/40 Bearish for tomorrow.

Come on Fed lie to me.

Here's your simple charts showing a broken bull and maybe some support levels that we hope to hold in weakness.

 

[Bquat]

News Flash from Little Bull:

What if this is just a healthy correction as stated by The stock Mentor? After watching his video this morning and seeing futures up, there might be a chance of the bull market continuing. Maybe the Little Bear should of waited for this video befor panicing.

http://www.thestockmentor.com/market-videos

Well I redrew my charts starting with the first of the Bull move (Birch would like this).

So guys do we go bullish? Now you have both sides and I'm not so negative. 50/50 waiting confirmation.

Heres the charts: Did them premarket so you guys have plenty of time to flip the coin or watch also.

Comments welcomed. Can't sleep house is too warm (airconditioner off for winter too sone I guess) coffee time!

 

[jkenjohnson]

News Flash from Little Bull:

What if this is just a healthy correction as stated by The stock Mentor? After watching his video this morning and seeing futures up, there might be a chance of the bull market continuing. Maybe the Little Bear should of waited for this video befor panicing.

http://www.thestockmentor.com/market-videos

Well I redrew my charts starting with the first of the Bull move (Birch would like this).

So guys do we go bullish? Now you have both sides and I'm not so negative. 50/50 waiting confirmation.

Heres the charts: Did them premarket so you guys have plenty of time to flip the coin or watch also.

Comments welcomed. Can't sleep house is too warm (airconditioner off for winter too sone I guess) coffee time!

Not that it matters much but my own personal system is on a buy. What bothers me (and probably a lot of others) is the Greek Crap. How do you account for this in any model? Personal opinion is that until Greece agrees to the bailout and it is underway, stocks are too risky for me. I'll be curious to see what everybody else says.

 

[Bquat]

Not that it matters much but my own personal system is on a buy. What bothers me (and probably a lot of others) is the Greek Crap. How do you account for this in any model? Personal opinion is that until Greece agrees to the bailout and it is underway, stocks are too risky for me. I'll be curious to see what everybody else says.

Well didn't the worst news possible came out about Greece yesterday and could only get better from there and maybe market priced it in and we build from here. Birch would be elated seing the correction already and recapturing the 1230 level already. I hope I don't get too excited here.