Bquat's Account Talk

[Mcqlives]

So we're still in the coin toss area. By IRA the slow stochastic's are embedded which should be bullish. Yet, we're not moving anywhere. So was the spy in a triple top failed move yesterday? I don't know. So I will leave it up to you to interpret what may happen in the short term. I did supply a yellow breakdown line and a green possible bounce line if we go south. Comment for others especially if you disagree.

So we finally got the coin toss with the Eu flipping the coin...but are the markets just responding in a knee jerk reaction? I'll take the gain but will be even more cautious going into the last trading week of the month. Have a great weekend!!!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

So we finally got the coin toss with the Eu flipping the coin...but are the markets just responding in a knee jerk reaction? I'll take the gain but will be even more cautious going into the last trading week of the month. Have a great weekend!!!

I must agree. Caution is key. The charts for equities still look promising, but the SPX intraday low touched 10 day EMA!and closing price closed just under its 2-3 day EMA channel.... So there may be some consolidation next week but overall still looks like it could keep floating up. This is where it's tough to stay in. Will Consider taking some off the table, but I got in early for the rise so not as much pressure to exit early. Will see!!

 

[Bquat]

So we finally got the coin toss with the Eu flipping the coin...but are the markets just responding in a knee jerk reaction? I'll take the gain but will be even more cautious going into the last trading week of the month. Have a great weekend!!!

Yes I agree. News related move. 4 months extention for Greece. I didn't think we had much invested in Greece anymore.

 

[Mcqlives]

Yes I agree. News related move. 4 months extention for Greece. I didn't think we had much invested in Greece anymore.

Yep...the I fund (and most of the US funds) don't have much into Greece anymore...but if Greece leaves the Eu over this (I do not think it will come to that) keep in mind Spain is on tender footing too. The other Euro principles (Germany, France and GB) would be unlikely to sustain the Euro themselves. When you look at all the dominoes in place the Greece commitment becomes essential for the EU economy. What I find even more of concern is the timing of the extension. 4 months (after the 6 month term was rejected last week) puts this right back in play just after Spain has it's local elections and is gearing up for its December national elections. The same anti-austerity party ruling in Greece is going for a win in Spain so they are working the timing of all of this. Lots of variables involving politicians which is never good for the markets. I thought about bailing today but am looking for a little more positive...maybe 2124 on the SnP before I'm done for a while. Worst case I'm gone if we drop under 2094.

 

[Mapper]

Quick drive-by. I still read the discourse here but have been in a holding pattern/treading water (~50% invested) in TSP for a long time know. My fears of downside action have gotten the best of me and I've been missing out...but not completely .

Keep up the good work here!!

 

[Bquat]

I think I see a small consolidation repeating pattern. I will show you this in the morning charts.

 

[Bquat]

I have them done and will post them before I go to breakfast so you can study them with you're morning coffee. As always if you see something you disagree with, speak out.

 

[Bquat]

More charts:

 

[Bquat]

The Funds with the small consolidation repeat patterns:

 

[Bquat]

What do you guys think about the VIX?

 

[Bquat]

OK there you have it. Feel free to comment bad or good. Sometimes I get a little bias in my charts by what I see. So don't be worried to say if you see something else and enjoy your coffee or hot chocolate for you guys in the cold. If you're over 55 and shoveling snow: 20 min on, 10 min break, slow and steady.

 

[Mcqlives]

OK there you have it. Feel free to comment bad or good. Sometimes I get a little bias in my charts by what I see. So don't be worried to say if you see something else and enjoy your coffee or hot chocolate for you guys in the cold. If you're over 55 and shoveling snow: 20 min on, 10 min break, slow and steady.

You were at it early this morning! Thanks for the charts...they match nicely with my scratching (2128ish and 2146ish) re the SnP. I hope we get some rungs to the upside! Have a great weekend and stay warm (-10 this morning here).

 

[Bquat]

You were at it early this morning! Thanks for the charts...they match nicely with my scratching (2128ish and 2146ish) re the SnP. I hope we get some rungs to the upside! Have a great weekend and stay warm (-10 this morning here).

Yeah if I draw it to the yellow lines, I can get you some rungs.:smile: I can't tell if we're rolling over or high base consolidating for a bigger pop. I'll let you decide.:blink:

 

[Cactus]

What do you guys think about the VIX?

I grant you it looks like it's bumping up or leveling out, but I think this is just a bump on the trend downward. I don't think we have anything to worry about until it gets down to 12. Of course that isn't too far away.

 

[Bquat]

Tomorrow we may see the importance of the 18 day moving average. Ira Epstein is always talking about retesting the 18 day of closes after a move up or down. Friday I'll probably show you the 18 day acting as support in equities and as resistance in the VIX-X. This is something I was thinking of having as more of an influence this year.

 

[Mcqlives]

Tomorrow we may see the importance of the 18 day moving average. Ira Epstein is always talking about retesting the 18 day of closes after a move up or down. Friday I'll probably show you the 18 day acting as support in equities and as resistance in the VIX-X. This is something I was thinking of having as more of an influence this year.

You think we may get a cross of your mid-term and the 18 day? Be nice symmetry. I hope you are right but I did not like the 2094 getting broke like it did today.

 

[ravensfan]

Tomorrow we may see the importance of the 18 day moving average. Ira Epstein is always talking about retesting the 18 day of closes after a move up or down. Friday I'll probably show you the 18 day acting as support in equities and as resistance in the VIX-X. This is something I was thinking of having as more of an influence this year.

Just speaking off the cuff, if you were invested in a fund and the closing price fell at or below the 18 DMA, would that trigger you to move to safety?

Thanks for any wisdom you are willing to share.

 

[Bquat]

You think we may get a cross of your mid-term and the 18 day? Be nice symmetry. I hope you are right but I did not like the 2094 getting broke like it did today.

Yeah I was worried about 2090 and if we didn't retake 2097.

 

[Bquat]

Just speaking off the cuff, if you were invested in a fund and the closing price fell at or below the 18 DMA, would that trigger you to move to safety?

Thanks for any wisdom you are willing to share.

Not necessarily. It's mainly a spot where the Bears might be satisfied with the retrace and we have dropped enough or where the bulls might think they have taken enough profit. Watch a lot of Ira Epstein and you'll may get a jest of it. It's not an exact science just something I'm watching and evaluating. Plus it doesn't quite work in a sideways moving market where the 18 day is slightly flat. Sample:

 

[Bquat]

Just speaking off the cuff, if you were invested in a fund and the closing price fell at or below the 18 DMA, would that trigger you to move to safety?

Thanks for any wisdom you are willing to share.

You know what? Looking at my own sample, I might if the 50 day is in the direction of the break.