Bquat's Account Talk

[Bquat]

Here's what I was seeing. If you copied the top line of the channel, change it to red and drag it down to the middle of the channel, it would bisect the three red gaps. This was kind of too obvious to miss. So we're right there on the mid-channel line and right on the shoulder line. So should we make the red line a new switch line. Is this enough correction. Only the night people will know. It's primed both for a gap up or a break down. Me I go with up. You? I am a little nervous because this is exactly where I thought the correction might end. We will find out our answer tomorrow. Is there still trust in TA and the dip gets bought.:nuts:

 

[Bquat]

If we break 50 day we get a new channel. It's possible but not 1800. I think 1780 is. You? Got up early, went to breakfast, fell asleep at desk. Sorry old folk syndrome. :embarrest:

 

[Mcqlives]

If we break 50 day we get a new channel. It's possible but not 1800. I think 1780 is. You? Got up early, went to breakfast, fell asleep at desk. Sorry old folk syndrome. :embarrest:

I hope so...but we have to get confirmation this afternoon into tomorrow morning before I'll get in.

 

[Bquat]

I hope so...but we have to get confirmation this afternoon into tomorrow morning before I'll get in.

Myself, I am hoping this is a V bottom and we spike up after we break the 50 day to copy the left side.

 

[Bquat]

Still thinking we're going up but with this weakness it might just be up to the caution line right shoulder. We need to see a bigger move to break to show strength for the 1780 level. I'm going with the new switch line and exit if it's violated to the down side but still think todays action was bullish and that we still can break the 50 day. Wish for something like a no tapering comment. That would be nice. So glad tomorrows only Wednesday.:suspicious:

 

[Bquat]

Switch line good. Check. Bottom of channel held. Check. 38.2 fib tested and held twice. Check. Higher low. Check. Don't tell me we're waiting for the Fed notes? Let's go light this candle. Ok 1672 at least.

 

[Mcqlives]

Maybe...I would be all the way with you if we had closed solidly above 1652 yesterday but, without me getting that confirmation, all I can say is that I hope you are right!

 

[Bquat]

Maybe...I would be all the way with you if we had closed solidly above 1652 yesterday but, without me getting that confirmation, all I can say is that I hope you are right!

We got almost two hours to watch.But the green part is getting shorter for another test.:blink:

 

[Bquat]

I like the longer time frame but waiting and hour for the candle to complete can be like churning butter.

 

[Bquat]

Are we still ok? We are below the channel and my switch line but are we broken?

 

[Mapper]

Broken? guess it depends now you define broken. Not yet in my opinion. Yesterdays mini gap on open got filled and we have gaps above and below. There was a strong effort to boost issues today but it was sold. Gloomy market scenario has me looking at that gap below as a short term target but if we drop that low I think we'll overshoot a bit and get near 1600. Cheerleader scenario says we gap up tomorrow and take out the 50 with ease...then off to the races. We're still sitting at the intersection deciding which way to go. My money is still on gloom and caution but I really want to start being a cheerleader...it's more fun.

I call myself "mapper" for a reason. I do maps. I also own Garmin (GRMN) it ended the day up almost 5% so there are definitely some openings and spots of sun poking through those looming dark clouds.

 

[Mcqlives]

Mapper, I like your comments but am hard pressed to see the 1600 area without some horrendous news.

Bquat, I like your chart and am sticking with my 1636ish and 1652 lines.

 

[Mapper]

I mentioned a bit ago that I'm seeing slightly increased magnitude in each of the recent legs down. I think this market is getting tired and that's the way we are starting to see exhaustion. Each leg down draws in a few more converts to the bear side of the table. 1630ish, I don't like firm numbers, is more realistic but, as stated, I think if that much selling occurs we'll overshoot the mark... Thus getting closer to 1600. I'm not saying 1600 exact because I don't believe in such precise prognostication. You can ballpark a technical phenomena but we're dealing with a herd... Herds don't turn on a dime and though they respect technicals there will always be some psychology involved.
Anyway, that's where get the ballpark numbers from.

So what I'm suggesting is simply getting down as low as 1630 is the "horrendous event" that could drive us lower. Right now a lot of people are trying to play a bounce. I think no bounce will cause some panic selling.

 

[Mcqlives]

I mentioned a bit ago that I'm seeing slightly increased magnitude in each of the recent legs down. I think this market is getting tired and that's the way we are starting to see exhaustion. Each leg down draws in a few more converts to the bear side of the table. 1630ish, I don't like firm numbers, is more realistic but, as stated, I think if that much selling occurs we'll overshoot the mark... Thus getting closer to 1600. I'm not saying 1600 exact because I don't believe in such precise prognostication. You can ballpark a technical phenomena but we're dealing with a herd... Herds don't turn on a dime and though they respect technicals there will always be some psychology involved.
Anyway, that's where get the ballpark numbers from.

So what I'm suggesting is simply getting down as low as 1630 is the "horrendous event" that could drive us lower. Right now a lot of people are trying to play a bounce. I think no bounce will cause some panic selling.

Understood Mapper and, for what it's worth, that is why I use "ish" with my numbers on the way down. I stay solid with the higher numbers on the way up because that is what I need to see at close to believe in the bull run.

All that said, we hit 1634 overnight with the futures markets. We'll have to see but that lines up nicely with Bquats chart and is close enough for my "ish" :cheesy: I may move in soon.

 

[Bquat]

Thanks for the comments guys. You guys as of right now are both right. We're in a coin toss state again. I bullish because we haven't gone down more and it seems like both sides like this level. I have to admit though we were in this 1% range before awaiting for news to make a decision and being below the 50 day makes me nervous. I was looking for a decisive move up and it hasn't happened yet. It's as if the peoples want to see the move confirmed instead of sticking their neck out which normally is me.:worried: So lets take the 50 guys.

 

[Bquat]

Using the 50 day as the top and the performance of the S fund today, I'm expecting the S&P 500 to follow and break out of this ascending triangle. Tried this once. Maybe second try will do it. Birch?:suspicious:

 

[Bquat]

Using the 50 day as the top and the performance of the S fund today, I'm expecting the S&P 500 to follow and break out of this ascending triangle. Tried this once. Maybe second try will do it. Birch?:suspicious:

Looking better.

 

[Mapper]

looking like a good a positive open. Thinking I missed my opportunity to get back on the right side of the trade.

 

[Mcqlives]

looking like a good a positive open. Thinking I missed my opportunity to get back on the right side of the trade.

breakout has high potential to set new highs provided EU and IMF continue with current policy. there is also a chance for a retest of the bottom of the current channel. Just my opinions but I have over an hour to weigh them and make a choice \.

 

[Bquat]

I wouldn't normally zoom in using my new longer time frame, but I needed to zoom to see the two tails. I could also see one more test of the bottom of the channel. Maybe wide top have big drops and wide bottoms can have big pops. Just trying.