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Lines are still good. Mid-channel support now resistance. Lot of damage today, not just Ben. Pattern was there and I didn't even think about what he might say. Keep an eye out many may think dip was being bought. Might just be DCB for overreaction. Just saying. Does anybody really know anymore? Here's tomorrow's charts: You guys decide. Side note: 50 day 1588 right at 61.8 Fib area.
Guess I was right. My next guess was right also about dead cat bounce and maybe 1588. We'll see. Gained back some confidence.
Still good. Old channel bottom held as resistance.
Contrary to that I think the bear flag is still good. I drew this little grey line where the V bottom became negated.
Also the red line showing the bottom of the last channel acting as resistance that is holding. Only thing that has me worried is even if we sell to my green line, do we buy for the three day holiday trend reversal on Tuesday as Oscar has described several times before. I haven't gone to his site for a while now but here's the link: Live With Oscar Go to daily video. Well? What you guys think?
Went there he has exactly a discussion about it. I must have esp.Wow at first look people may think this was a V bottom dip buy back.
Is TA working again? Probably just luck.
Ok looking at 1627 or 20 day to hold and wandering about buying or waiting for confirmation of a move back up. Might wait for Tuesday. Would be good to reenter using this month's IFT. Only the shadow knows. If we continue more down today the better. We need to get down to better support. 1621 to the bottom of the channel would be the best.
Called the bear flag. Three times right.
Any ideas. Three fun filled days to comment and help others.
Any comments welcomed.
QE in itself only affects TA by giving a positive bias and an incentive for big money to stay in for the free money or liquidity. The main problem with QE is that good economy news becomes bad news and bad news becomes good news. There is so much money being pumped in that all bets are on it's continuation. Any news that should be good for the market increases the chance of the free money being lessened or stopped. Another thing to consider is if QE stops and less money is put in the bond markets, lending rates may go up. If the lending rate goes to 3% or more every baby boomer and their brother will take every thing out of the market. With the 2007 crash and a fear it could happen again, they will be happy with 3% at no risk. Also the market will drop because it would be harder for companies to borrow free money for speculation. Also if interest rates go up, home prices will drop because the cost will go up on loans and less people would qualify for the higher payment. So QE is reverse logic. Now a lot of us have been missing this run because we're think it falsely supported and could crash easily but lately only price matters and it keeps self perpetuating itself with the QE pump. In the last week downside volume has increased and upside volume has been less. But if you find my position on the tracker, you may find my comments a moot point because the general market likes to fight against anything I can come up with.
As always thanks for your questions because we may accidently answer what's on other's minds.
QE in itself only affects TA by giving a positive bias and an incentive for big money to stay in for the free money or liquidity. The main problem with QE is that good economy news becomes bad news and bad news becomes good news. There is so much money being pumped in that all bets are on it's continuation. Any news that should be good for the market increases the chance of the free money being lessened or stopped. Another thing to consider is if QE stops and less money is put in the bond markets, lending rates may go up. If the lending rate goes to 3% or more every baby boomer and their brother will take every thing out of the market. With the 2007 crash and a fear it could happen again, they will be happy with 3% at no risk. Also the market will drop because it would be harder for companies to borrow free money for speculation. Also if interest rates go up, home prices will drop because the cost will go up on loans and less people would qualify for the higher payment. So QE is reverse logic. Now a lot of us have been missing this run because we're think it falsely supported and could crash easily but lately only price matters and it keeps self perpetuating itself with the QE pump. In the last week downside volume has increased and upside volume has been less. But if you find my position on the tracker, you may find my comments a moot point because the general market likes to fight against anything I can come up with.
