Bquat's Account Talk

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One reason I don't like to look at the short-term is because it's easy to get bearish real fast, and in this timeframe you'll get slaughtered with zig-zags and lag-induced end-of-day IFTs.

Off the last wave, we have 2 greater than >50% replacements. 1 on the yellow quadrant lines which are divided into 25% increments. The other on the customized purple Fibonacci fan, showing the technical damage off this last wave. But like I said, I can't react to this timeframe fast enough, so i give it less weight within the TSP realm.

View attachment 11020
 
JTH said:
One reason I don't like to look at the short-term is because it's easy to get bearish real fast, and in this timeframe you'll get slaughtered with zig-zags and lag-induced end-of-day IFTs.

Off the last wave, we have 2 greater than >50% replacements. 1 on the yellow quadrant lines which are divided into 25% increments. The other on the customized purple Fibonacci fan, showing the technical damage off this last wave. But like I said, I can't react to this timeframe fast enough, so i give it less weight within the TSP realm.

View attachment 11020
Click to expand...

I guess I got this short term outlook by watching Live with Oscar too much. He's some what of a day trader and I would lissen for his comments that seem more for a mid term or swing trade type trades. I'm kind of a swing trader type but I have too many emotions sometimes. I come up with my daily guesses to try to predict resistance and support levels and maybe trend between channel tops and bottoms.

Lately I have been evaluating IT's system to avoid some of my emotional trades, But bad news seams to strike right at some of his buy calls. They look like good calls to me , but civil war in Libia esculates in a buy period,an earthquake hits Japan in a buy period, the Nuclear Plant diasters increases at a buy period and then after all this on another buy the tripple A rating of the US is threatened. I pitty the guy lately but he will prevail soon. A system can't predict world events and having a system prevents you from tweeking for short term market problems. It works for market action, not market reaction.:)

You have been hot as of late and I think you have mentioned how you may be going back to class and may not be as active with it. I admire a man who get a good feel for the market and shares it with others. I do check your charts and comments regularly.:D I enjoy when you visit my site and touch base with me. I make mistakes and anyone that can point it out helps me and who else that visits here.
 
Bquat said:
Well I'm kind of happy with it and I am still bearish with 1350 being tested from the bottom. I'm thinking retest of the 1330 and 20 day before any buy interest. I may even look for the 1320ish bounce. Remember lower highs and lower lows are being set. This is my guess?

Bearish 60/40:(

Another hour and a half we can see Poolman's videos.
Click to expand...

Well this is about right and after seeing the videos provided by Poolman.
The 20 dma is around 1334ish and this is where the bulls may buy in if this is a bull flag. Sooo, we may bounce there.:confused: we'll see.
 
PoolMan post some great videos, some of those technicians are pretty good, but none of them use a timeframe that works within TSP's restrictions. That's not to say there's nothing to learn from them, there's plenty. Ira is one of the better ones, he's consistent and he teaches from the beginners perspective.

I can't speak to IT's system I really don't know anything about it. From my own personal experience I can say that you can do all the backtesting you want to, but you'll never completely account for the pressure of reality vs. the backtesting. I imagine offering a paid service adds additional pressure, none of which I care to apply to myself. ;)
 
Not much of a bounce today after touching 1330. I'm thinking more down. A lot of people got back in today thinking this is the bounce area. You might want to follow, but we have been increasing the amount of loss daily with increasing momentium. I'll wait another day for 1322-24 area.

So bearish 55/45:(

Did people jump the gun or did they guess right and we get a good jobs report tomorrow. Even some who say see the change before making a move have gotten in. Well we'll see tomorrow if we missed and oppertunity. I was out of pocket during IFT time, so let's see if I'm lucky.

And thanks guys for the 15000 reads. Maybe we can get to 20000 faster. Visit read and post if you wish.
 
Ok, I'm back. Well looking at the S&P a little before the close, I only missed .3 or so. It broke 1350 and you would think that would satisfy the buyers, but no it didn't hold. It looked like today was a bear flag and maybe a bull trap bouncing off the bottom of the channel and the 20 day. Went up quick and most everyone followed and then day trader profit taking. Luckyly those that bought yesterday may have made a little because they were in before most or the buy in and the close was above the start level. As for the ones who followed in today and didn't see the drop before they could cancel may get caught tomorroy. I'm thinking more of a chance of dropping tomorrow because a base wasen't formed 1350. This was another felled test of the 1350 and even after it was broken which is a bull trap because it looked like 1350 resistance was broken.

So yesterday my guess was technically wrong foe 0.3 gain but was the use of an IFT worth in?. Now 60/40 bearish.:(

You guys hope for consolidation if your in.
 
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Is there a bullish penant forming? Do we retest 1330 S&P? Do we repeat the pattern above 1304? To make this happen we need to retouch 1330 and hold till we touch the bottom of the channel (red) and start back up within three days. Ok I put it out there bulls, what do you think.:confused:

If 1330 breaks look out.:(
 
Here is my take, besides agreeing with you on the 1330 mark as a level of resistance on the way down (if we go that way)....and if we break that 1330 we should retest the 1304ish mark quickly (think Feb 18-24). That being said, I think, and hope, that we will see a solid break through 1343 in the morning with a climb up to flirt with the 1363 mark again (think the last week of April). We just have to get out of the current channel (1335-1343) to get a clear direction for the short term...long term I believe we are still in the early stages of a bull (yes that sounds like BT:cheesy:).

Have a great week!

-mcq
 
Mcqlives said:
Here is my take, besides agreeing with you on the 1330 mark as a level of resistance on the way down (if we go that way)....and if we break that 1330 we should retest the 1304ish mark quickly (think Feb 18-24). That being said, I think, and hope, that we will see a solid break through 1343 in the morning with a climb up to flirt with the 1363 mark again (think the last week of April). We just have to get out of the current channel (1335-1343) to get a clear direction for the short term...long term I believe we are still in the early stages of a bull (yes that sounds like BT:cheesy:).

Have a great week!

-mcq
Click to expand...

Thanks, I was writing about the shadow trader video agreeing wit me somewhat, while you posted. So I missed your short visit. Have a great week too.
 
Bquat said:
It still could bounce off 1350 and go back down. There still is room in the pattern.
Click to expand...
You can never count on Futures to predict the next days close, a bad bet every time but worth taking into consideration.:cool:
 
nnuut said:
You can never count on Futures to predict the next days close, a bad bet every time but worth taking into consideration.:cool:
Click to expand...

I like the last video you posted. I'm still thinking a touch and go on the 1330 and bullish with the breaking of 1343.
 
Well I have to go. Have a loving Mother in Law to care for.She had a bad day today of all days to have a bad one. Thanks for the extra visits Nnuuts.:D
 
I'm hoping for a continuation of the inverse H&S uptick, but the majority of the analysts that I've seen are thinking either back down or sideways, my contrarian side likes that because I jumped 100% "S" thinking that we probably have turned around to the upside, and any small gain tomorrow will validate that, I THINK?:D
Oh, you're gone, have a good one we will see tomorrow.
 
I liked how todays action went. It was stronger than I expected. I thought touch of the 1350 and back down, but it built a high base which should be bullisk.

If you look a the pattern that I drew on the 7th, you will see we're at the touching the bottom of the bearish leg within a bullisk channel. I'm looking at a retouch of 1335 one more time to touch the bottom of the bull channel to complete the patterm and start the bullish trend back to the top of the channel. I think that would be the best place to break the black line because it held today. Look at the previous pattern that completed. It went up then had a down day to get back to the red line.

If we do break the black line we may start back up early which may be even better but the market likes patterns.

So 50/50:confused: tomorrow
 
I see what you mean it may take a couple of hits but it should break through that resistance fairly easily the tough one should be close to 1362.:cool:
 
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