Boghies Account Talk

Technical Traders, is this chart starting to look actionable...

JobLossesRecessionStartMay2011.jpg

Yowser.

Those trend lines imply a 'New Normal'.:sick:

I'm glad our President initiated that huge Keynesian debt explosion to get us out of the Bush Depression. It seemed a sure thing that wiping out years of cash flow would create an economic boom to surpass all other booms.

My guess is that the market is looking 18 months into the future and seeing a Reagan following a Carter.
 
Re(1): 'Showdown', The Belmont Club, John Fernandez

The party is over. As long as conservatives realize this and don't play political gimic games they will define this era.

Otherwise, if our President was a Clinton, not so much.

But, our President is a Carter.
 
Technical Traders, is this chart starting to look actionable...

View attachment 14370

Yowser.

Those trend lines imply a 'New Normal'.:sick:

I'm glad our President initiated that huge Keynesian debt explosion to get us out of the Bush Depression. It seemed a sure thing that wiping out years of cash flow would create an economic boom to surpass all other booms.

My guess is that the market is looking 18 months into the future and seeing a Reagan following a Carter.

oh good, then we're starting to pull out of it by that measure?
 
I have a Bi-Partisan Deal

The following are Federal Fiscal Year Expenditures through June (using 2011 dollars) for the past 5 years:

June 2007 - $2,252 Billion
June 2008 - $2,312 Billion
June 2009 - $2,817 Billion
June 2010 - $2,695 Billion
June 2011 - $2,705 Billion

Revenue for FY2011 is $1,734 Billion

Here is a deal I'll make right now:
  1. Cut the $393 Billion over FY2008 inflation adjusted expenditures right now.
  2. Then raise taxes on all Americans by an equal amout to that cut.
  3. Hope the tax increase does not slow economic growth.
 
Ho Hum...

So far a Ho Hum Armageddon…


I thought today was going to be the end times.

I thought that our nation’s credit score was going to drop because the credit card company didn't increase our limit. What am I to do now that I have sold my house, my car, quit my job, bought Birkenstocks and a Burlap Sack and ran into the mountains.

Here I am wearing an itchy burlap sack with a rifle over my knees. On a Unabomber Cabin porch.

All dressed up and noplace to go.

Uuuugggghhhh…

Camping

:o
 
How did we get here???

As a note, we have been making due living paycheck to paycheck.

I'm not against permitting a little bit of very regulated debt to cover past stupidity - but, only under adult supervision. I guess that adult supervision is being provided by the 'Tea Party'. Party On:)
 
How 'Bout That Relief Rally!!!

Wow,

I wasn't expecting this. Didn't want to chance locking up my assets in the 'G Fund' if 'The Black Swan' needed some quick cash.

Anyway, time for my most conservative - but standard - allocation:
G - 14%
F - 26%
C - 37%
S - 12%
I - 11%
BrandesValue is telling me that 'I'm Lockin' in my Losses'.

Answer: Oh, yeah. That I am.

But, I have 60% still in.

And, I don't want to lock in more later!!!
 
Re: How 'Bout That Relief Rally!!!

Tom,

I cannot believe this, but my 2011-08-04 10:28:41 transaction hasn't (won't) take hold. Oh my God. I am certain that I completed the transaction, but it is not noted on www.tsp.gov.

This will hurt, but whoever's fault this issue is my AutoTracker should be at:
C: 50%
S: 15%
I: 35%
Actually, a little different because of market changes and contributions - but that would not be fair. I am precisely at:
C: 50.86%
S: 14.83%
I: 34.31%

Now, I am in a quandry. I don't want to be invested only in equities, but if I make and IFT than I may consume both of them for one allocation. These idiots may post the IFT the day I correct their mistake with a new IFT. Or, maybe they won't. Yuk...

Then again, maybe I am the idiot and couldn't figure out how to click the button. I do remember typing in my email address though...
 
Re: How 'Bout That Relief Rally!!!

Re(1): 'The Long-Term Stakes of the Debt-Ceiling Fracas', Forbes, Brink Lindsey
Re(2): 'The Fourth Turning', William Strauss and Neil Howe

HT: RealClearMarkets

The referenced article is probably the best I have read on the debt ceiling and debt management topic.

Basically, it comes down to Boomers not paying for their stuff. So, we have a range of options.
  1. Pay for the stuff
  2. Cut the stuff
  3. A Mix
Now, it might be important to remember that all you Boomers are asking the GenXers to pay the bill.
  • On the positive side, GenXers are pragmatic, self-sufficient, practical, perceptive, and savvy.
  • On the negative side, GenXers are tough, uncultured, amoral, and unfeeling.
In a '4th Turning' the Boomers will promote culture changing ideas, the GenXers will fight. We are watching that now.

In my opinion, we will watch much of the welfare state fat get wiped away in the next ten years. Remember, Boomers are of two minds. The Burlap Sack and Birkenstock archetype and the Gingrich archetype. You know where I stand. And, who has been winning the fight these last twenty years?

If I were to guess, this is in the wings:
  • Balanced Budget - not an Amendment, just the hard choices
  • A Flatter, less 'Progressive' Tax System - Everybody Pays for Stuff
  • An increase in Medicare Taxes - Anyone think 2% pays for Medical Stuff
  • A Cut in Social Security - With the Bush Option of investing part in the Market
  • A Cut in Welfare Benefits - Leading off with Wiping out Benefits for Citizens of another Country
  • A Cut in Defense Spending - But, with a Hard Headed Approach to Benefits, Strategy, and Material
  • A Decimation of Federal Departments that Came into Existence During the 1970s 'Doing What Feels Right' Mood
In affect, the contraction of the Nanny State.

I know there are other opinions, but how do you fight for a continuation of not funding your largess? Look back at the GenXers. Do you see hope there? Where are your knife fighters?
 
Re: How 'Bout That Relief Rally!!!

Re(1): 'The Non-FDR', The Belmont Club, John Fernandez (Wretchard)
Re(2): 'What Happened to Obama', The New York Times, Drew Westen

The vanguard. Government was going to lift it up and demand integrity and thereby uplift humanity. To announce that would have sounded the clarion. But Obama didn’t sound it to Western’s regret. He didn’t toot the trumpet; didn’t step into the shoes which the arc of history had cobbled for him. And why? Because he underestimated the viciousness and savagery of the capitalist enemy which he had the chance to suppress in the same way that FDR did.

Those were the shoes — that was the historic role — that Americans elected Barack Obama to fill. The president is fond of referring to “the arc of history,” paraphrasing the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s famous statement that “the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.” But with his deep-seated aversion to conflict and his profound failure to understand bully dynamics — in which conciliation is always the wrong course of action, because bullies perceive it as weakness and just punch harder the next time — he has broken that arc and has likely bent it backward for at least a generation.
Instead, Obama sort of, kind of slipped into them and tried them on for size. But that was a mistake, because the thing about historical shoes is that you have to fill them completely. You cannot share the space handed to you by Fate with rival tendencies in historically decisive moments. You have to get up there and pump your fist in the air, lay down the gauntlet, brook no opposition, leave no gray areas because the American people are apt to be too stupid to see what a man with shoes is getting at unless he makes it “stick” in their minds. ‘I am wearing these shoes and you had better get used to it.’

...


FDR took on Hitler. Smashed Tojo. Crushed Mussolini. Faced off with Stalin. Humbled the British Empire. All Barack Obama could do, by contrast, was surrender to Michelle Bachmann.
 
Re: How 'Bout That Relief Rally!!!

Re(1): 'Disputing Darwin', The Belmont Club, John Fernandez

Ouch...

Nature’s default method for dealing with failure is natural selection. It subjects individuals to a survival test and if they fail, they die. Having died they remove themselves from the gene pool (and probably the meme pool as well) and are heard from no more. Left to themselves the brood of the Welfare State would fare poorly. Without skills, having torched their surroundings and having, in the words of one Australian self-confessed Leftist “**** on their own doorstep” they would pick their surroundings clean and then perish from basic starvation.

Pretty much a required read for those who think 'Happy Days are Here Again'.
 
Re: How 'Bout That Relief Rally!!!

Tom,

I cannot believe this, but my 2011-08-04 10:28:41 transaction hasn't (won't) take hold. Oh my God. I am certain that I completed the transaction, but it is not noted on www.tsp.gov.

Then again, maybe I am the idiot and couldn't figure out how to click the button. I do remember typing in my email address though...

boghie, did the IFT ever go through? this non-action happened to me twice near beginning of the year-but I didnt check back on TSP to see the non-action til much later, when it was too late to do anything about it. One record ("recent transactions" page) showed me making IFT but making 0% changes from previous allocation. Huh???

Not too late for YOU to get problem remedied tho-IF you kept copy of the transaction acknowledgement for your records that you could have printed out. I'm not talking about the email confirmation you get sent-(I got one of those too but the IFT still never went through), I'm talking about the tsp.gov page acknowledging the changes, that shows in tsp.gov then and there after you hit the "submit" button.
 
Re: How 'Bout That Relief Rally!!!

boghie, did the IFT ever go through? this non-action happened to me twice near beginning of the year-but I didnt check back on TSP to see the non-action til much later, when it was too late to do anything about it. One record ("recent transactions" page) showed me making IFT but making 0% changes from previous allocation. Huh???

Not too late for YOU to get problem remedied tho-IF you kept copy of the transaction acknowledgement for your records that you could have printed out. I'm not talking about the email confirmation you get sent-(I got one of those too but the IFT still never went through), I'm talking about the tsp.gov page acknowledging the changes, that shows in tsp.gov then and there after you hit the "submit" button.

I can be dumber than dirt. I've never had a problem with TSP and neglected to print the notification. Never again...

But, in the end, all this volatility seems to be Sturm and Drang. I think I'm going to focus more on what allocation seems right going forward. Right now, I can't get my brain wrapped around the fund I should overweight. I'm thinking the 'S Fund'. But, the 'C Fund' might be where the dividend investors run to. Low interest rates helps support small/mid caps, fear of gubmint debt should support the big boys with big balance sheets.

Something will present itself soon...
 
Re: How 'Bout That Relief Rally!!!

Re(1); 'Why Generation X Should Thank Paul Ryan', RealClearPolitics, Reed Galen
Re(2): 'It's Bootstrap Time for Generation X', RealClearPolitics, Reed Galen

HT: RealClearPolitics

The referenced articles provide a very good synopsis on what is going on in the brains of GenXers.

Why is this important to TSPTalk? Because it WILL affect:
  • Your pension
  • Your Social Security
  • Your Medicare Benefits
Reed Galen is a positive thinking chap.
I know that when my wife and I discuss our retirement, and we discuss it regularly, we make a firm assumption that entitlements: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid will not be there for us.
Why is the above positive? Because he is looking for an equitable solution to address reality:
Paul Ryan's plan will not be enacted in its entirety. I'd venture an easy guess that he never believed that it would be. But at least he's given us a starting point; not for the pundits and politicians who wait for the house to catch fire before looking for the garden hose, but for those of us who care about this country and have a vested interest in our own and our childrens' future.
and, he feels a sense of responsability:
As my generation is actuarially responsible for the safety nets of our elders, we should double-down on the assumption that we’re on our own. Not much more complaining needed on that front: We made a promise to look after them the day we joined the workforce; maybe even the day we first showed up in our parents’ arms.
But, there is an edge to his more recent thinking:
I hope, like me, most of my generation doesn’t plan to sit around and worry about what "the system" has done, or might do to them. The days of thinking about how things were, or how things should be are gone. Everyday we go out and try to make the best life we can for ourselves and our families, and ask "the system" to just leave us alone. If the Beltway politicians want to screw around with debt ceilings and Super Committees that will do little other than raise our cost of living, have at it. But there are a lot more out here like us than they think - and they ignore us at their peril.
I am a GenXer. I have many of the traits of a GenXer - noted in an earlier 'article'. Watch out if you think things will not change during a '4th Turning'. Keep a watch on which Boomer ideals are winning the fight and adjust. And, kinda beware the knife fighting GenX.
 
Re: How 'Bout That Relief Rally!!!

I still believe that illegitimacy is one of the great problems in this country for welfare - these kids are ruining our education system as well. And yet nobady talks about it. But I will because I've dealt with the repercussions of the Great Society and liberalism and they stink.
 
Readin' My Earlier Stuff...

[[Note: Trade not made yet, just thinking. If I pull the trigger you all willl know. Recommendation: Bet against me. That is my value here:nuts:]]

Howdy,

Every once in a while I hearken back to the hard times of 2007 - 2009. I have reviewed many of your posts from that era - but never my own.:p
I was definitely smarter back then.:D
Dumberer Now!!!

Oh well, I'll try to reach for just Dumb.
Then strive for Average.
Then Super.

I'm so dumb I couldn't find my 5 Allocation model. My two synapses are sparking to life and urging me to reallocate. The frowny synapse tells me that an allocation of:
  • 0% G
  • 0% F
  • 50% C
  • 15% S
  • 35% I
Is not a balanced or scientifically modeled portfolio (Quicken estimates a 7% return with an 11% risk – not so good). My smiley synapse just noted that the ever brilliant Gordon Brown just opened his yak in the Demonic Bachmann Eyes issue of NewsBleak. That synapse is screaming that anytime Gordon Brown (England’s former DumA$$ Prime Minister) is yakking it might be wise to underweight the (I)nternational Socialist Fund!!!

So, even though I don’t like the ‘F Fund’ I have to incorporate some of it into a more balanced approach:
  • 10% G - A little cash to buy on a dip
  • 18% F - No idea. It must be science!!!
  • 40% C - A place to migrate some of that G/F stuff too
  • 20% S - Buying a bit more.
  • 12% I - Underweighting this pig
  • Return: 6%, Risk 8%.
Not a bad risk/return ratio. Rather balanced for someone with at least 18 years to invest. Hiding from Europe. Too bad the ‘I Fund’ has no Chinese, Brazilian, or Indian assets. Too bad…

And, I really distrust bonds. They seem quite bubbly.

And, if I want bubbly I’ll buy Champaign!
 
Back
Top