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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Boghies Account Talk
- Thread starter Boghie
- Start date
Boghie
Well-known member
Birch,
Been thinking the same thing. Your allocation seems to have about the same Beta as mine, but has a ton more Alpha (hope I'm using the terms right
).
Bonds will probably be lousy investments for a while. The big money will be selling soon. Thus, I may as well move the money as far from American investments as I can in an effort to diversify. Too bad we can't invest in REITs and commodities. Oh, well...
Boghie
Well-known member
On This Day Toxie Died...
September 24, 2010...
On this day Toxie, the Toxic Asset, passed into the night...
crws
Active member
Re: On This Day Toxie Died...
sniff....
we just got our assessment.... down another 11%. -33% in 2 years....
But hey, I can dismantle the deck and burn it for heat this winter! :laugh:
Maybe some wiley inventor will devise a septic tank methane recovery supplemental heating system so all this $$ we flush down the hole will go to some use over the next 5 years.
IBS
Boghie
Well-known member
Never All In, Never All Out - Almost
I've been walking the train tracks all month.
See, nothing happened.
Nothing bad.
But, what's that ahead. I see 'The Lights of October'!
I really didn't care about an average down of 0.74% during the month of September. Usually September isn't plagued by wild swings.
But, as we all know from personal experience, October is a month to ‘Behold’. :nuts:
G: 0%Never all in, never all out. Who can predict this thang. And, thousands (maybe millions) are watching the squiggly lines on charts. All better than I.
F: 40%
C: 35%
S: 5%
I: 20%
I am still allocating 60% in equities because folks who understand the squiggly lines better than I are in the market. Otherwise, I would be on vacation this month!!! Even if I lose value this month I will be ahead of where I would have been if I didn’t watch a number of you.
Boghie
Well-known member
Today could very well be a round number bump up party
If I didn't bump today, I'll be within a smidgeon of it.
I love it when the left number changes
And, yes, folks have commented on my pyramid style of prose:nuts:
Missed it by 0.4%
Oh well...
Boghie
Well-known member
I'm with you Birch...
It's time for the bonds to start selling off...
Anyway:
G: 0%
F: 10%
C: 40%
S: 10%
I: 40% - Dollar dump
I think the 'F Fund' holdings will vanish in my next October IFT - hopefully :laugh:
I'm overweighting the 'I Fund' because of the dollar dump. Pray for no news from Europe.
The 'S Fund' could be pressured more than the 'C Fund' from inflation worries.
This is a fairly high risk allocation. While I am not near my Quicken toolkit, I will venture to guess we are talking about a 10% expected return with a 12% risk. The previous allocation was a 7% return and an 8% risk.
Boghie
Well-known member
Almost pulled the trigger.
Almost yanked that 10% in F for one of the equities funds that have kinda corrected.
I didn't.
Why.
Because a point or two really isn't a tradeable correction in our TSP environment.
And, if I keep blowing my trades I can stay off the front pages of the AutoTracker. I think that is my goal this year
Boghie
Well-known member
Re(1): 'KTVA: Yeah, that was us, but it’s not what you think', HotAir.com, Ed Morrissey
Re(2): 'A Coming Government Shutdown?', Pajamas Media, Tom Blumer
The media is right down the middle, eh...
Me thinks that this will play well for a Congressional takeover. That means that there will be a larger wave. That means there will be more pressure to stem the huge tax increase scheduled to come. That means the equities market should boom.
And, it means a standoff with this Administration and this President. How can you even think of cutting the budget. We have been cut to the bone!!!
As Tom Blumer states, how can one ever think of cutting into the 7.5% increase in spending. That 36% increase in structural spending since FY2007 has proven absolutely necessary. And, of course, all of us sane Americans expect a 22% increase in revenue year over year - yuk, yuk. We will all bump into the taxman's palm tree April 15, 2012. What a surprise. Can't do anything about it (except maybe increase TSP withholdings and start/increase our FSA or HSA accounts). Who can guess what will happen to Federal revenue when folks do the above and corporations fiddle with their balance sheets now that dividends will lose their tax efficiency. Who would ever have guessed that Federal revenue would tank rather than grow?
We should have a discussion somewhere on how to play this.
For me, this is fish in a barrel.
Play the wave; get out before 'The Black Swan Event President' kills all hope, then pop in when the Democratic Congressional survivors bail on him. It should all take place in about a month or two, eh...
Kinda wish I had positioned myself better in October though. Should have moved a bit to safety before playing the reactions coming this week. Oh, well...
Boghie
Well-known member
Hey folks...
Watch out for the 'Lock Box' we call the 'G Fund'...
The Treasury can borrow from it - with a promise to pay it back:nuts:
They can treat it with the same respect they treat other Social Security Assets
This would 'normally' occur in February - but this Administration burns through more money faster than any previous group of kleptocrats!!!
Hope, Change...
Boghie
Well-known member
The New Guys May Have It Easy
I had an earlier post demonstrating the gubmint bloat under President Obama.
Here are the actual (not projected) numbers:
Me thinks the Tea Partiers forced even tax and spend libs to cut back on their bloat. Wow, they managed to cut a deep 1.8% off last years expenditures. Now, that sliced the safety net to the bone.
Of course spending has increased 21% over inflation since the end of FY2007 - including that amazing FY2010 cut. Profiles in courage.
Now for the fun part. I just watched the Libs on MSNBC beclown themselves berating some former Bush Drone about where he would cut the budget. For some reason they seem to think there is only about $450 Billion in the budget that can be touched. Nope...
A read on the Monthly Treasury Statement for FY2010 kinda demonstrates that non-recessionary and non-census spending grew by over 10% (inflation adjusted) since FY2007.
Therefore, Congressman Paul Ryan can take the axe to about $350 Billion. And, that axe need not actually swing for a chunk of it. If they wipe out the rest of the stimulus spending and don't bail out the failed states of California and Illinois than we are talking chump change.
Then, when Congress forces this Administration to keep tax rates right where they are at we will increase revenue and reduce unemployment.
Fish in a barrel.
Boghie
Well-known member
Now, That's the Ticket...
Re(1): 'GOP to Use Debt Cap to Push Spending Cuts', WSJ, Damian Paletta
What a surprise.
Sometime in May the Gubmint credit limit will be reached - my guess is that it will be a bit earlier. There is a block of 70+ CongressCritters that need a bit of pork in their districts to bolster their resumes. There are Happy Times after Bad Times. I'm certain those folks will make the best of a bad situation over the next couple of months!!!
Anyway, when the kiddies in Indian costumes start dumping Debt Tea overboard (they picked it because it tastes like cr@p - they don't want to dump the yummy stuff) the captain of the ship will start looking for creative solutions to resolve this unexpected problem. Like a corpulant - but bankrupt - fat cat Wall Street banker, the gubmint will 'invent ways to temporarily borrow money to cover funding needs'. They will build on the recent past. They will be very creative. Now, where to look...
During the Clinton administration, the government actually hit the debt ceiling during a standoff between Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and GOP House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Mr. Rubin successfully avoided default by borrowing money from at least two federal pension funds.
...
On separate occasions in 2002 and 2003, the Bush administration avoided hitting the debt ceiling by suspending investments in a pension plan for federal employees, among other things.
Now, that's the ticket
Folks, that is your 'G Fund'
I need help with my Indian costume
Boghie
Well-known member
Clarity...
Re(1): 'Sunday Reflection: Republicans should seek clarity by listening to voters', Washington Examiner, Glenn Reynolds
This is a nice point.
It is actually THE poiint...
Boghie
Well-known member
Are You All Ready!!!
Re(1): 'Indebted and Unrepentant', City Journal, Fred Siegel
Hey Guys and Gals...
Can you spare a dime - or, hopefully, a couple hundred trillion of them or so?
There is still hope for progressives to defend their beliefs. Amoeba, I, and Frixxxx - as well as all California residents - will soon need your gracious financial support if we are to persevere in
an ugly fight in which a Tea Party–inflected national Republican Party, encouraged by its strength in the interior states, forces California and New York—now heavily dependent on federal subsidies—to reduce their spending sharply. The coastal giants would no doubt respond by threatening defaults, which could affect the credit standing of the entire country, since many of the bonds are held by foreign investors.
We have placed our hope in Governor-Elect Brown, a very progressive state assembly, and a firm belief in the value of tax enhancements. The 70's were great for Kalefornea and that past must be our future! But both Kalefornea and New York need access to credit that corpulent fat cat bankers will not lend us. We need your help.
Please be there for us:embarrest:
Silverbird
Well-known member
All California needs is a resolution to require all resolutions also include how to PAY for the resolution. Silly things like a resolution putting a ceiling on energy costs to the consumer with another resolution opening the energy market to anyone allowed Enron to inflate their prices without the consumer noticing - the state got the bills. There is no such thing as a free lunch - at least there isn't one that tastes good!
If this happened, I would be utterly amazed. It would be the best eye-opener ever for California. And if I hear from Californians one more time that they are the bellwether for the nation, I don't know whether I will spill my coffee from laughing too hard, or I'll hit the speaker over the head with my cofee mug. Even if it was true (questionable) back in the 70's, we don't wear bell bottoms anymore. So far no other State has unfunded Resolution Mandates like California! And it doesn't matter who's in charge as long as any resolution to spend money can be passed without an accompanying price tag - actually with what resolutions have passed already it's a big unpaid mandate mess. Ask the Gubernator about that.Last edited:
Boghie
Well-known member
Silverbird, right you are...
We Kaleforneans use the proposition process to vote free lunches via bonds...
However, I think our credit rating will no longer permit this...
And, it is too late for your viable idea...
We Kaleforneans are going to get kicked in the head by the bond vigilantes.
I hope NOBODY is forced to help.
We have to live in our soiled bed for a while.
This is the 'Black Swan' event nobody is talking about.
Please, folks, DO NOT bail us out. We might need a hand up, but don't give this turd world state a hand out. Please step up and say: 'Kalefornea: Drop Dead'. We will recover.
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ENRON was able to game the system for reasons other than that you noted. Our brilliant leadership did not allow the power distribution companies (Sempra, Edison, etc.) to sign long term power generation contracts with companies like ENRON or Duke or whoever. The Kalefornea Economic Illiterati forced the distribution companies to purchase power daily or hourly. Unexpectedly, ENRON and the rest gamed the system. This includes public power generation entities like that of Los Angeles and Arizona and Washington state.Similar threads
Mmm mm excellent!
