Boghies Account Talk

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Staying invested means ignoring this...

Is being 17% out of the market enough of a cushion?

Is that 17% in the 'G Fund' actually a cushion?

Backed by the Federal Gubmint:nuts:
 
Drowing in a sea of Lilly Pads.
Too young to die:nuts:

Shedding that last belt of 'G Fund' weight. Ah, losing that 17% sinker weight sure feels good right now, but...

G: 0%
F: 0%
C: 50%
S: 30% - I think I like the extra buoyancy here:nuts:
I: 20%

Quicken Growth/Risk is 10/13

But, Risk is a Standard Deviation - it could go UP​
Am I crazy to think that earnings season will be good. That is isn't already completely baked it. That, if it is, we will just meander around and not crash.

That we will boom.
Then correct.

Got to be in to win:p
 
Hmmmmm

Great timing, great timing...

Can Israel use the Sinai as an approach to Iran? But, Iran's nuke facilities are in the northwest. It would be a much longer approach via the Sinai. Maybe they will overfly the Sinai, take an airfield in Saudi, and jump off from there.

Still think they will strike over the Syrian/Turkish border
 
We could be gearing up for a bifurcated market that no one is anticipating - I've seen it happen before. The small caps may tank without mercy or they may meander slowly to the downside over several months while the large caps rule going forward for awhile. I'm just trying to stay prepared as a new swing trader. The 2 and 4 year cycles are in the not so distant future and the sinners will pay a price. I'm waiting on the I fund to hit my target price of $19.61 and then I'm out another 5%.
 
Got ya Birch...
Point taken. Well taken...

And, you know - it fits my 2010 market prediction:

My Guess,

Dow: 10,900

I think we can make more than that tremendous growth though

There is nothing out there - other than safe money on the sidelines - that will drive the market to new highs. Why will the safe money move to risk assets for the long term when the hope and change smell is in the air.

There will be an enhancements in capital gains rates.
There will be an enhancements in dividends tax rates.
There will be an enhancements in 2011 income tax rates.
There will be an enhancements in Federal Gubmint Regulation.

On the positive side:

Election pressure may force lip service to gubmint responsibility. For 2010.

Thus, anemic annual growth - but, maybe, tremendous swings internally.​

The safe money might be moving now. da Boyz are probably gaming the dumb money right into their maw as I type. It will probably last a while - there is over three times the Obama Deficit of 2009 in safe money assets. da Boyz will probably want half to two-thirds of that. And, the gubmint wants that dumb money moving. Moving money is taxed money:laugh:

Then, sometime in May/June da Boyz will look out at the lovely tax vacation Chevy Obama has planned for them at Marty Moose's Hell. Complete with new entitlements, new fees, new regulations and they run away.

Cowards:nuts:
 
If ya in da market ya gotta accept a couple/few days of losses, eh...
Especially if you only have two trades.
Like the old snail mail days...

Anyway, this GS stupa-attack should wind down soon. Already, or tomorrow.

Why bail out when earnings and momentum are going with you.

This Bama Administration adds risk to the market.
 
Glad I didn't start bailing out.
I would not have been able to get back in.

A stupa-attack on a bank isn't going to turn the market. What will turn this market will be da Boyz or da Bama. da Boyz may want to yank out profits or they may want to teach the gubmint a lesson. Maybe both. da Bama will lumber around like a bear in a China shop. He will say or do something ignorant. Something anti-capitalist and/or anti-government aggressive. Something dumb. Maybe next month’s unemployment numbers will spook both.
 
Re(1): 'Fire and Ice', The Belmont Club, Wretchard
Re(2): 'Engagement Queue', The Belmont Club, Wretchard

There is a difference between Risk and Uncertainty...

University of Chicago Professor Frank Knight described the distinction between risk and uncertainty in these words. “Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated…. The essential fact is that ‘risk’ means in some cases a quantity susceptible of measurement, while at other times it is something distinctly not of this character … It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or ‘risk’ proper, as we shall use the term, is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty at all.” In other words, Knight wanted to differentiate between risks we could measure and those which we could not estimate. Donald Rumsfeld conveyed the same idea much more eloquently and comprehensively.

As we know,
There are known knowns.
There are things we know we know.
We also know there are known unknowns.
That is to say, we know there are some things we do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know we don’t know.​

The Black Swan event is not a risk, it is an unmeasurable uncertainty. As sorta mentioned in a post by Amoeba we have lived through a few Black Swans in the last decade. This stock market - which actually feels rather like a standard growth market - is with high probability measurable, and thus has risk. We may get a 10% contraction - a correction - but, that is normal and measurable and acceptable. A market move like that is NOT uncertain. It will happen. It is not the Black Swan of new crash.

The Black Swan event that is setting up will be the 'leaker' that gets through the defense. I don't think the next Black Swan will be the same one we just saw. We have multiple inbounds, multiple adversaries, and discordant directors. As Wretchard states:
Yet with events coming at a fast and furious pace it will always be problematic whether the response will be quick enough; or whether a “leaker” will get through to change the game even faster than is happening now. Emergence tends to throw curve balls. They also tend to speed up the ball-throwing machine. In some things people must trust to luck, not just to avoid dangers but to seize opportunities.

But luck favors the ready.​

Things seem to be moving rapidly.

Keep your head on a swivel.

Look, talk on defense.

Be ready...
 
The S&P 500 logged a:
12.52% Average Annual Gain and a
11.51% Compound Annual Growth Rate​
during the Worthless One's (President Jimmy Carter) Presidency

However, inflation adjusted those numbers are:
1.70% Average Annual Gain and a
1.05% Compound Annual Growth Rate​
during the Worthless One's (President Jimmy Carter) Presidency

Excellent calculators available at MoneyChimp:

My guess is that President Obama is a functional duplicate of President Carter. Thus, we will have inflation relatively soon (surprising, eh:nuts:), low job growth, and companies/individuals hiding profits/income. I think Carter II will have his wings clipped this November so maybe the economic damage will be restrained. The other forms of damage will be a gift that keeps on giving!!!

Regardless, the potential for stagflation requires full investment. Bonds will simply suck. At least equities hold value to inflation...


Uh: I thought I posted this in my thread. First posted in BirchTree's
 
It would appear that we do share some similar sentiments regarding yellowback Jimmy - only I despise the man to the point of hatred. The sooner he is in a hole the better.
 
Birch,

Just like Jimmy, President Obama will be setting many Black Swans aflight...

So much the environmentalist...

Anyway, the media still glistens to hear and repeat the sage we know as Jimma. The Worthless One would not be able to continue his failed Presidency without the goobers in the media. I think the media goobers can no longer understand his blather - so we haven't heard too much from him.

So, as long as he keeps his yak shut I don't care anything about him

That is a good thing...
 
Hey Guys and Gals,

Follow (NPR's 'Planet Money') Toxie the Toxic Asset through her trials and tribulations:nuts:

Here is a little something for those of you who think your pension (CSRS or the pension portion of FERS) was invested in safe and secure assets. That is why I don't like pensions and why I don't like the 'F Fund'. The term 'Mortgage Backed Securities' doesn't have the ring it once had :nuts:

Yuk, but fun for the whole family...
 
PIGS in the Streets - Run, Tractor, Run!!!

Oh boy, wwwTractor, oh boy...

Birch runs with the bulls, but running with the PIGS :p

Anyway, the Greeks are in the streets:

PH2010021003978.jpg


And, there are now news reports that the Socialists in Portugal are donning their burlap sacks and Birkenstocks and heading for the avenues!!!

When will the folks learn that capital moves like the wind. You want it, you grab it, and offer the big nada - and, it vanishes. Then the Bondholders stop loaning or shark it.

Anyway, the end result is that the 'I Fund' ain't the place to be:
G: 10%
F: 0% - Those Bondholder again!!!
C: 50%
S: 31% - Do mid/small caps have much to do with Europe
I: 9% - Because I don't have a crystal ball​
The Qucken Growth/Risk is 9%/12%

Happy Hunting
 
No carter duplicate, obama's less than worthless

Boghie said:
My guess is that President Obama is a functional duplicate of President Carter. Thus, we will have inflation relatively soon (surprising, eh:nuts:), low job growth, and companies/individuals hiding profits/income. At least equities hold value to inflation...
Click to expand...

Obama's healthcare reform apparently doesn't include setting an example by not smoking, or enforcing Federal law for a schedule 1 narcotic. Right, he's the president, who cares about the FDA when he's the president, roll a big doobie and get stoned.

Within 6 months of his idiotic relaxation of drug enforcement, the county (not the state, a single county) that I live in now (Sacramento, California), now has sixty (60) "dispenseries" for marijuana, and probably thrice that many head shops for paraphernalia (pipes, what not).

This is truely sick. If that dope-peddler runs for re-election, I will volunteer every waking hour to defeat him.

The adjacent county of Placer has none (that county will not issue licenses for either head shops or dispenseries).

There are some things that are not up to the voters; drug testing, and approval based on risk, safety, medical benefit, is one of them. I couldn't care less about polls. I do care about health, health care, and associated health costs.

Carter did have his issues; negotiating with terrorists being one not yet mentioned. But in some respects he lost more common sense when he clipped his toenails than Obama ever had.

Economically, the bell will toll on Obama, Geithner, and the rest of his deficit-happy clan, perhaps not today, or next month, but soon.
 
Amoeba,

Fellow Kalefornean, we are in the troubles...
Only Illinois can beat us off the cliff...
Hope for Pennsylvania…
The race is on!

Anyway, I'll wave at you as I tumble down the AutoTracker. :p
Sports has taught me to win and lose with grace. :cheesy:

Can you believe that Orszag is now hollering that year after year after year of $1.3 Trillion debts is a bad thing and that we should do what it takes to close the gap. Certainly reducing spending by the Trillion plus they bloated the gubmint budget THIS YEAR is not on the table.
 
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