Boghies Account Talk

[Boghie]

Social Security - Rolling Over...

Re(1): Monthly Treasury Statement FY2008
Re(2): Monthly Treasury Statement FY2009

I hate to break this to everybody, but BusHitler was right regarding Social Security. He campaigned on changing it in 2000 and 2004. He stated that FY2009 would be the year Social Secuirity revenue would be exceeded by Social Security expenditures.

That moron hit it on the mark.

Last fiscal year Social Security revenue/expenses were about even:

• Revenue: 658,045
• Expeditures: 657,799

This years projection, not so good:

• Revenue: 682,373
• Expeditures: 699,976

Folks, this is the first year that the government doesn't get to incorporate a Social Security surplus into its revenue stream to buy 'Bridges to Nowhere'!!!

Obviously, with unemployment being 7.6% rather than 4.6% the revenue from payroll taxes will reduce - but that was NOT incorporated into the projections!!! So it will be worse!!!

And, now President Obama wants to spend more money - with comments that it is the spending that counts, not judicious spending. Just spending.

Finally, BusHitler was right. The long term benefits of compounding interest investment requires a long term. He figured eight years. Then prayed four years would be enough. Bubbas, we gave him nothing (and, noting todays stock market collapse if you just watched your investments rather than moved them, nothing might have been for the best!!!).

Now, President Obama is six inches into the hole - a hole he probably knew nothing about. He was talking about Hope and Change.

The time for small, incremental change is over!!!

I Hope he is the Financial Wizard of Change!!!


P.S. Much sarcasm in the above post. I like Bush:embarrest:

 

[ezmoney]

Re: Bogies Account Talk

Hey Boghies, I've always said it wasn't about Bush; it is about Republicans period. They bashed Bush and if Obama had not won; it would have been the same bashing for any Republican regardless of who they were if they had won. It will be the same when the next election comes around it will be bash the Republicans the socialist and the communist have an agenda. They need for the poor and less fortunate to need government. They want us to believe that only government can solve our problems so they do the entitlements to those who sit there with their hand out. Obama is our President and he is the Commander of the finest fighting forces in the world. I hope for America's sake he does well, well enough that all America's can say he has done a great job for all Americans. You will not hear that from the socialist and communist when there is a Republican in the Whitehouse. They only know how to tear down and can only destroy those who really want what's best for Americans, even creating absolute lies with no merit whatsoever. Not to say that Republicans haven't made some blunders and mislead us. I think there is enough blame to go around in politics but I blame the states. They keep putting the very ones that have created havoc with America regardless of party right back in office. That shows you the mindset of some of these states. Now I want my entitlement; I am entitled to it aren't I. I'm tired of paying for that Damned Tea!

 

[Boghie]

Following a Doomer's Advice...

Hope was on the last train out,
Change is on the one coming.

Time to get one foot off the tracks

G - 35%
F - 50%
C - 10%
S - 5%
I - No Hope, no Assets (Seen Gordon Brown lately)

My confidence is growing by leaps and bounds. Certainly enhanced spending on STD education will get this economy rolling - Tomorrow!!!

But, what will happen when the bozos in the media figure out that Pork ain't feeding the oldsters on Social Security.

Shocka

 

[Boghie]

The Downer Train Keeps on Chooglin'

The Train Keeps on Chooglin'
All Night Long...

The Train Keeps on Chooglin'
All Night Long...

Chooglin' over me as I lay down in the middle of these tracks. Just lay down and watch the light, the cowcatcher, and wheels roll right along me. Lookin up at the undercarriage all night long.

I feel safe right here in the middle - with nothin' to lose (10% C, 5% S). Just waitin' for the train master to switch tracks. Mabe soon, maybe not so soon. Maybe 2012???

Keep on Chooglin', baby...

Keep on Chooglin'

 

[Boghie]

President Obama – Give Me a Chance…

To Believe!!!

Please stop the spending spree. Let me get my debt under control. Please get your debt under control. I don’t know how government can run deficits in revenue boom years – but we have done so for more than four decades (the President Clinton surplus included Social Security receipts that are now being paid out). Time to gut it out for a year or two. It is NO time to borrow money. This is not 1929 when the government was in surplus. We do NOT NEED your largesse, I do NOT WANT it. I do NOT WANT to fund it.

Before you tax me, prove to me that you are a good steward of the funds I provide. That is, get your spending under control. Prove that you can cut day-to-day expenses before you ask for more. I am NOT talking about long term investments (highways, dams, power lines, national defense, etc.) that are productive. A good start would to keep such spending level – no increase to inflation. We can all tighten our belt 3%. It would be at least symbolic.

Do that – then ask for a revenue increase.

I WILL accept that – and watch actions

A $1,750,000,000,000 annual deficit?

No Change, No Hope

 

[Boghie]

Lifetime Account Returns...

Wow,

Got my annual TSP statement. It included my lifetime contributions - which I think includes the matching funds (I hope:worried.

Until July 2008 my average annaul return was about 11.5%.

Now, including the recent hammer fall, about 9%.

Really not bad, not too bad.

I would like to thank TSPTalk for help and support. I lurked for a quite a while, but now try to be involved (to everyman's regret - yuk, yuk).

I will do quite fine if I can hold a 9% return. I can do ok with 8%. Make do on 7%. Survive on 6%.

Maybe just to be safe I will increase my contributions. Still paying off the big credit card in the sky though. Maybe a year or so of that... Then the joy of hiding my riches from the Hidden Hand of Obama next year

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Lifetime Account Returns...

I would like to thank TSPTalk for help and support. I lurked for a quite a while, but now try to be involved (to everyman's regret - yuk, yuk).

Our pleasure! Thank you, for all your contributions / input as well.

 

[Steadygain]

Hey my friend - I really need to run but stopped by to say hi.

Please know - you're a valuable friend and great addition to the entire MB. We need a lot of thoughts and views on almost everything and all of us can sift out what's important.

Personally Looking up the the G Fund is one of my all time favorites because it sounds so funny - but rings so true.

A 10% Gain is EXCELLENT - especially when you consider the enormous loss the bulk of TSPers endured (I all the more mean the B&Hers who don't visit our site).

Amazing I call it "our site" - but trust me the longer you stay and remain open the more it really becomes your place.

See ya Monday

Steady

 

[Boghie]

Hey my friend - I really need to run but stopped by to say hi.

Please know - you're a valuable friend and great addition to the entire MB. We need a lot of thoughts and views on almost everything and all of us can sift out what's important.

Personally Looking up the the G Fund is one of my all time favorites because it sounds so funny - but rings so true.

A 10% Gain is EXCELLENT - especially when you consider the enormous loss the bulk of TSPers endured (I all the more mean the B&Hers who don't visit our site).

Amazing I call it "our site" - but trust me the longer you stay and remain open the more it really becomes your place.

See ya Monday

Steady

Thanks, Steady...

Just to be clear, I LOST 22% last year. I didn't make 9%. Last year took a lifetime annual growth rate down 2.5%. Brutal.

But, not as bad as some. And that is partly a result of reading this MB.

 

[Boghie]

There, Up in the Sky, What Do I See...

I see America moving forward and healing.

Others see a Mighty Black Swan ready to drop a turd before viciously striking at them with gnashing beaks and killer swan talons. Eh:nuts:

Let us look at some numbers:

The Great Recession...

Assuming that 2007/10/09 is a reasonable proxy for C/S/I top of market:

G: + 5.27%, $12.15 to $12.79
F: +7.38%, $11.57 to $12.42
C: -51.39%, $17.57 to $ 8.54
S: -52.69%, $21.27 to $10.06
I: -56.20%, $25.73 to $11.27

To date, the YTD market is as follows:

G: + 0.39%, $12.74 to $12.79
F: - 1.24%, $12.58 to $12.42
C: -18.15%, $10.43 to $ 8.54
S: -17.57%, $12.21 to $10.06
I: -20.94%, $14.25 to $11.27

If I remember correctly the the S&P dumped 70% at the bleakest point in the Great Depression. Thus, let us look at a Great Depression level bottom:

C: -51.39%, $17.57 to $ 5.27, (another -38.3% decline)
S: -52.69%, $21.27 to $ 6.38, (another -36.6% decline)
I: -56.20%, $25.73 to $ 7.72, (another -31.5% decline)

While the worst case is possible, it would make a very large black swan. Are we all looking at CITI Group and AIG and not at the folks who are making the day-to-day changes that will see us through this thing. Paul Kedrosky summarizes this quite well in 'Y2K, the Credit Crisis, and the Rosencrantz Fallacy'. I would recommend the read (just a blog entry).


I watched as the most egregious of investment banks went bankrupt or were merged into more conservative entities. By the way, some of these mergers were probably ‘forced’ quietly by the Treasury. Yes, BofA (who might have been ‘forced’ to buy CountryWide) is having problems – but they will get through it. The most aggressive management of the most aggressive failures are ‘enjoying’ their gold plated retirement – but, they can do no more harm to us. So, the biggest abusers became the biggest failures and are now topics for historians. That is a good thing long term.

I have seen numerous articles on consumer debt deleveraging. That is positive long term. That is millions of folks regaining their purchasing power – and those millions will have sustained purchasing power, not bubble crappolla. How long will it take for the consumer to deleverage to the point of comfort. Me, about two years. So, 2009 will be a year of bleak earnings. Ok, so what. Open heart surgery is bleak. The long life thereafter is not quite as bleak, eh.

I have watched as GM grubs at the public trough – but, did Ford. Watch the unions get clobbered. Unions and management are spotting the reality train coming down the tracks. They will bargain for survival. Gamesmanship is so passé. Long term that is a good thing.

Watch the space with regards to City, State, and maybe Federal employees facing reality. You mean a cost of living 'raise' could be a cost of living reduction. I asked that question on the ignorant lout yakking up NSPS. She couldn't get her brain cell around it. Could happen - more likely we will just get no inflation raise. Why. Because there is no inflation. While I may not like it - it is a good thing long term.

Finally, would you rather buy a home now – or two years ago?

Let us not focus on the failures of the past or the zombie failures of the future. We are starting to get out of this thing. I don’t expect this year to be as catastrophic as last year – do you?

That doesn’t mean I’m jumping in. It just means I’ll be watching for a long term opportunity – maybe mid year. I've ended a purely negative sentiment - but, President Obama and Pelosi and Reid could turn things around

Got to beat the heard back in, eh.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: There, Up in the Sky, What Do I See...

I see America moving forward and healing.

I see America facing a lot more pain and hardships before they can even start to heal .

Your post is very good BTW

I don’t expect this year to be as catastrophic as last year – do you?

I expect this year to be worse than last year for America as a whole and for 99.99% of TSP Investors and investors in general. The main reason is because last year was not officially classified as a Recession until the last quarter.

This year 'they' proclaim the Recession has been ongoing for over a year and expected 'to bottom' in 6/09 - at least that seemed to be the overwhelming thought as the year started.

Only now are things really breaking down to the crumpling point. The industries have largely avoided the very worst - but now we are finally at the point where a REAL SELL OFF or a PANIC SELL OFF should occur.

This will follow with some residual sell off - and things will end up so down it will probably have to roll about a year before Traction can realistically take place.

SO - I think this year will be even more disappointing mainly because 'most will long for a bottom and hold on to that hope' or think it's right around the corner - but that is not likely.

President Obama and Pelosi and Reid could turn things around

I believe Obama and his administration will do everything possible to turn things around.

The PROBLEM is not a U.S. problem - it's a global problem mainly stemming from the U.S.A. It's impossible for the U.S. citizens to not believe that the President - FED - Treasury - can magically turn this all around because our History has ALWAYS Shown they can.

Got to beat the heard back in, eh.

Most of us lost a huge amount last year - I lost BIG TIME. What burns me all the more is I'm supposed to be an active trader only for the purpose of Avoiding Loss in years like last year and this year and making way more than the B&Hers in years of marked volitility.

GL Boghie - going against this Market

 

[malyla]

Re: There, Up in the Sky, What Do I See...

I see America moving forward and healing.

Others see a Mighty Black Swan ready to drop a turd before viciously striking at them with gnashing beaks and killer swan talons. Eh:nuts:

Let us look at some numbers:

The Great Recession...

Assuming that 2007/10/09 is a reasonable proxy for C/S/I top of market:

G: + 5.27%, $12.15 to $12.79
F: +7.38%, $11.57 to $12.42
C: -51.39%, $17.57 to $ 8.54
S: -52.69%, $21.27 to $10.06
I: -56.20%, $25.73 to $11.27

To date, the YTD market is as follows:

G: + 0.39%, $12.74 to $12.79
F: - 1.24%, $12.58 to $12.42
C: -18.15%, $10.43 to $ 8.54
S: -17.57%, $12.21 to $10.06
I: -20.94%, $14.25 to $11.27

If I remember correctly the the S&P dumped 70% at the bleakest point in the Great Depression. Thus, let us look at a Great Depression level bottom:

C: -51.39%, $17.57 to $ 5.27, (another -38.3% decline)
S: -52.69%, $21.27 to $ 6.38, (another -36.6% decline)
I: -56.20%, $25.73 to $ 7.72, (another -31.5% decline)

....

Thanks Boghie. A very sobering analysis. Let's hope that the Great Depression remains the Great Depression and not the Second greatest depression. C shares half of their value from June 2003 is very sobering.
Keep us informed Thanks again. Malyla

 

[Boghie]

Do Ya Feel Lucky, Punk...

I know what you're thinking- "Did he fire six shots or only five?" Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement, I've kinda lost track myself. But, being this is a .44 Magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world and would blow your head clean off, you've got to ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk?

Like Scorpio in Dirty Harry, I've got to make a decsion...

Grab for my C/S/I gun or sit on the sinking Floatsam [Fund] and await Dirty Obama Justice - be it legal or instant.

Right now, I am thinking its time to grab. Time to start DCAing 10% of my G/F holdings into the Obama Money Pit. No single man - not even the el' Presidente - has that much true control of the American economy. The fear will fade - and I have to be involved in the market enough to realize some gains.

Will I grab for the gun - I think my odds are improving.

Dirty Obama's Magnum 44 sure looks big. It can blow my head clear off. Its the most powerful handgun in the world. Really, all the goober has to do is what comes naturally. Does he have another round in the chamber. Another round of ignorance

 

[Birchtree]

Dollar cost averaging is the best way to enter a position over time and don't forget your payroll allocations. Mine are on auto-pilot and have been that way seems forever. I've been in the C fund since exiting the S fund in February 2004 and I just keep on buying. My last precious C fund price was $8.54 and that buys many more shares. How long that price will last is the question - but it's a long way to keep buying back to $17.54,

 

[Guest2]

Boghie,

Loved your breakdown posted below. Thanks for the hard work.

 

[Boghie]

It's Only a Flesh Wound...

Posting this early :embarrest:

Scorpio was wrong... I might be too...

But, it will only be a flesh wound :cheesy:

Another 5% tanking after a 10% DCA into C/S will only cost me 0.62% more. If, instead, the market has hit bottom and bounces by 10% I will be on my way to incredible wealth. Uh, calm down Boghie. Not quite incredible. My account will grow by 2.5%. At least I will catch some of it.

Then again, it would be better to be looking at the bottom in the rearview mirror.

Oh well, time to IFT forward a couple of times (10% tomorrow, 10% in two weeks). Then, if the Obama Depression is the truth of it (lose 10% by Friday and another 10% in the next two weeks) my account will lose 5.8%.

Survivable

 

[Boghie]

Uh, Maybe I won't reach for that gun...

Now this is a bit negative, eh...

by CalculatedRisk on 3/03/2009 03:49:00 PM

Not so purty...

But, there is a mighty purty picture of a black swan...

Implies an error in an above post. Great Depression I resulted in an 89.2% crash over 34 months. We are in the 17th month of our exciting times!!! That means that the ‘C Fund’ could reach $1.89 per share. Now that would be a deal!!!

I'm not someone who reads charts, but the graph looks as if it was leveling off in December when TARP took effect and President Obama picked his team. Started crashing again when it became apparent that the priority was STD education and other tasty pork.

Does President Obama have the game President Hoover had?

Hoover started the Hoover dam among many other things. Still have them. Still generating power. Still providing water. What will the Porkulus Bill provide to future generations...

 

[Boghie]

The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

The No Good Filthy Rich Equities Holders:

The Bad A$$ Hero of the Working Man:

/sarcasm Very happy I was not the first to coin the term 'Dirty Barry'. He does't deserve it yet. But, if the market dumps 10% in March it's all his


And, The Ugly Future for we Corporate Plutocrats:

 

[Guest2]

Well Do Ya,,,,,,,PUNKKKK ! :nuts: rotflmao :nuts:

 

[Steadygain]

Good Morning Boghie !

I'm making my rounds - saying hi to everyone.

This morning began with a big boom and the news was very upbeat

BUT - PRIDE comes before the FALL .. so don't want to get my hopes up too far :embarrest::notrust:

Best thing I can do is take off for a few hours --- as nothing I can do to change things now...


GL to all that are IN or going IN