bmneveu's Account Talk

[bmneveu]

With the NASDAQ futures being down so hard compared to the S&P 500, it makes me wonder which fund that affects most. It would have to be the S fund, right? If the S&P 500 is basically the C fund, and their futures aren't too bad right now, then the NASDAQ must fall under the S fund. Who knows how this shakes out today, but if we closed right now (before we even open), we would see a huge divergence between the C and S funds... I think.

 

[Valkyrie]

With the NASDAQ futures being down so hard compared to the S&P 500, it makes me wonder which fund that affects most. It would have to be the S fund, right? If the S&P 500 is basically the C fund, and their futures aren't too bad right now, then the NASDAQ must fall under the S fund. Who knows how this shakes out today, but if we closed right now (before we even open), we would see a huge divergence between the C and S funds... I think.

my understanding is the S fund is the all us market stocks minus s&p and nasdaq stocks.

 

[Whipsaw]

S-Fund is close to the Russell, which is small to mid-cap stocks; nasdaq is tech heavy.

 

[bmneveu]

Bought Adobe

 

[bmneveu]

Melting up for the rest of the day? That would be nice.

 

[tsptalk]

:Flush:

Melting up for the rest of the day? That would be nice.

 

[bmneveu]

Ugh. So much for that.

 

[bmneveu]

The top 50 of the Autotracker are still pretty heavily risk-on, even after these last 3 big down days. Meanwhile the bottom 20ish are heavily risk-off in G and F.

Interestingly among both of those groups, not a single penny is directly invested into the I Fund. There are a few pennies in some L funds that diversify across all the funds to include the I, but no one has anything directly in I.

 

[James48843]

The top 50 of the Autotracker are still pretty heavily risk-on, even after these last 3 big down days. Meanwhile the bottom 20ish are heavily risk-off in G and F.

Interestingly among both of those groups, not a single penny is directly invested into the I Fund. There are a few pennies in some L funds that diversify across all the funds to include the I, but no one has anything directly in I.

I noticed that too- nobody seems to want to take chances on the I fund. That’s interesting, because it means both the top and bottom folks don’t want to add in the risk of the changing value of the dollar on top of everything else.

I think we just need a couple more days to get some clarity over where we are headed. That 50 moving average did its thing. Now the question becomes- where to next?


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[bmneveu]

Melting up for the rest of the day? That would be nice.

There we go. I was a day early!

 

[MaStA]

There we go. I was a day early!

Hahaha hopefully it continues

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

 

[Bullitt]

Interestingly among both of those groups, not a single penny is directly invested into the I Fund.

We know nothing of their time frames though. My guess is not many on the tracker actually stick to a particular allocation for more than a few weeks.

Below: Morningstar / International Stocks vs US Stocks. 9/8/2020

Historically, these markets have taken turns outperforming each other. Investing in both makes sense because it is difficult to determine which one will outperform in the future.

The past decade has been a one-way market, one in which diversifying with international stocks didn't look like a great idea. But there is still a case to own them. A market can't move in one direction forever. Valuations have to enter the picture, eventually. Owning a diversified portfolio means that some assets will perform well while others do poorly. The question isn't "will foreign stocks come back?" It's a matter of when.

 

[bmneveu]

It probably has a lot to do with Japan's market historical market performance, as they take up the biggest piece of the I fund pie. The Nikkei peaked in 1990, but has been rallying pretty well since 2012. So that's 8 years of gains now. Maybe Buffett sees something there ahead of the rest of us. It hasn't rallied as hard as US stocks, so maybe the valuations are better? I haven't looked, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Nikkei's P/E ratio far lower than S&P 500's.

 

[bmneveu]

S&P 500 just broke under triple bottom support on the 1hr chart, probably heading down to test the 50 day moving average.

 

[bmneveu]

S&P 500 just broke under triple bottom support on the 1hr chart, probably heading down to test the 50 day moving average.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XI9BWJXj1xI&feature=youtu.be

 

[bmneveu]

NFL Sunday yesterday got me wondering if there were ways to invest in sports teams. I looked into it and made this video:

 

[bmneveu]

Nice day for the trading account, up 2.5% so far. Everything is green, but Adobe, DocuSign and most of my small caps in particular are outperforming.

 

[bmneveu]

Timelapse of me looking at a few charts for setups:

 

[nnuut]

COOL!

 

[bmneveu]

Bull flag on SQQQ. Bad sign for the tech sector, but you can make money in a bear market if you bet on short tickers like SQQQ. I might put a few bucks in it and see what happens.