bmneveu's Account Talk

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bmneveu said:
Anyone notice this?
View attachment 23423
Here are the moves..
First leg up goes from 1204 to 1423 for a gain of 219 points. (17%)
First leg down goes from 1423 to 1266 for a loss of 157 points. (-11%)
Second leg up goes from 1266 to 1475 for a gain of 209 points. (16.5%)
Second leg down goes from 1475 to 1340 for a loss of 135 points. (-9%)
Third leg up goes from 1340 to 1598 for a gain of 258 points. (19%)
Third leg down goes from 1598 to ____?

At that pace, a 12% correction over about 2 months would make sense. From 1598, that would be 192 points, bringing us down to a bottom of 1406 sometime in June.
Click to expand...

If we continued this pattern and topped out at 1687.18 on the S&P today, that would be again of 26% (about 347 points) from the low of 1340 around the end of October last year. Continuing with the trend, retracing ~60% of those gains would be a pullback of 208.2 points, or 12.3%, leaving us at 1479, sometime around the end of July.
 
Looking at an interesting new mREIT index ETN, MORL. Its got a 2x leveraged dividend, pumping out nearly 25% a year. The chart is pretty ugly but it might find support and buyers at $24ish. I might be one of them. Very risky though. If I get in, it will probably be as long as interest rates stay rock bottom with a stop loss just under support. Then again, does it even matter what the stock price does when the yield is that high?
 
If we assume the top is in at (S&P500) 1687.18, here are a few Fibonacci levels to watch for, based on the gains from the November 2012 low:

23.6% retracement -- 1605
38.2% retracement -- 1554.5 (April pullback found support just under here)
50% retracement -- 1513.5
61.8% retracement -- 1472.5 (which is pretty close to the rough 1479 estimate I mentioned on May 23 when we topped)

I might put some chips on the table at each interval. We're only 8 points from the first level as I write this.
 
It feels like F is moving in step with S and C. Not sure how I feel about that. Or what that implies...
 
So much for F fund being that low risk, low volatility bond safe haven. Not sure where to put my money now. Looks rough out there. Made 8% on UVXY this morning at least (thanks RMI!)
 
Haha really all you did was mention on J's blog something about using UVXY instead of TZA. There was some divergence yesterday but it more than made up for it today.
 
bmneveu said:
Haha really all you did was mention on J's blog something about using UVXY instead of TZA. There was some divergence yesterday but it more than made up for it today.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I think yesterday was because VIX options were expiring so it went crazy all day (down mostly). Wish I had some dry powder to buy at the bottom yesterday and sell today at $80 ($18 gain)... oh well. I was in it at about $70 and sold for $6, so I am good for now... lets see how far this market goes down. I don't think it has the stomach to do anything serious... yet
 
bmneveu said:
If we assume the top is in at (S&P500) 1687.18, here are a few Fibonacci levels to watch for, based on the gains from the November 2012 low:

23.6% retracement -- 1605
38.2% retracement -- 1554.5 (April pullback found support just under here)
50% retracement -- 1513.5
61.8% retracement -- 1472.5 (which is pretty close to the rough 1479 estimate I mentioned on May 23 when we topped)

I might put some chips on the table at each interval. We're only 8 points from the first level as I write this.
Click to expand...

Well we blew through 1605. I'll put up to half in at 1554 I think.
 
I was gonna say big bull win today, until the last 5 minutes happened. And then after hours happened. End of 2Q portfolio shifting, or the start of another down leg?
 
Here's what I just spent some time figuring out..


RETIREMENT PAY


$1.8k/month total @ age 42
$5k/month total @ age 55
$6.2k/month total @ age 62



$1,825/month Military Pension @ age 42
$3,200/month TSP Withdrawal @ age 55
$1,200/month Social Security @ age 62


Pension based on E-6 with 20 years service
TSP based on $3k/yr @ 12% for 30 yrs
SS based on average benefit in 2012

I mixed in some conservative numbers with some aggressive to balance it out. I think I can get to E-7 and do 24 years. I didn't include agency matching contributions that I'll try to get after military service. 12% a year is close to my average PIP I think, but I'll probably average closer to 8% later on down the road.

I like these numbers, but I don't know how accurate I am. Anyone see any glaring holes I may have missed? I'm trying to disregard inflation and the idea of SS not existing in 30 years.
 
bmneveu said:
Here's what I just spent some time figuring out..

RETIREMENT PAY

$1.8k/month total @ age 42
$5k/month total @ age 55
$6.2k/month total @ age 62

$1,825/month Military Pension @ age 42
$3,200/month TSP Withdrawal @ age 55
$1,200/month Social Security @ age 62

Quote]

Don't forget taxes?? Big bite out of your retirement check and TSP withdrawal, plus State Tax.

On your age 55 withdrawal, is that life expectancy calculation or a dollar amount you choose? Wouldn't you get hit with a 10% early withdrawal penalty if you choose the dollar amount at age 55 rather than a life expectancy calculation? Will you work post Military? You say TSP at 3K a year for 30 years, would you go on as a Federal Civilian after your 20 (or 24) Military. IF so, how could you retire at 55? You'd not have the years of service for a LE/FF/ATC retirement, or the age (MRA) for a regular Federal Civilian.

Maybe I am wrong?
Click to expand...
 
No you're not wrong at all. Thank you for the response. I'll take a closer look at those points when I get to a computer and revise the numbers. Thank you. :)
 
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