bmneveu's Account Talk

[bmneveu]

Again if you get involved in margin just be prepared to cover if the girls from the back office call - they don't play and will sell you out in a heart beat within three days. I'm going to be playing with multi-hundreds of thousands of dollars when I gain access to my margin. You don't have to use the full extent of margin available - it's like having a floating home equity line of credit. You can write checks or buy stocks. I'm currently paying 2.75% with 30 free trades per month.

I don't use it yet, but will probably soon. I'm tired of Good Faith Violations. I only plan to use what I actually have in my account. But I want to be able to use it day after day, not waiting on funds to settle. That's why I'm looking in to margin. Thanks for the info.

 

[bmneveu]

I think I'll pass on the margin account after reading some horrifying reviews from OH's margin customers. Guess I'll have to throttle back the trades a bit.

 

[Birchtree]

The biggest positive that margin provides is that it allows someone like myself the access to unrealized capital gains without declaring profits for tax purposes. As an example my oceanic took in +$46K today - that equates to buying power of $92K. Sometime in March the seas will part.

 

[bmneveu]

I'll likely get out today. Sequester deadline getting close. They'll probably kick the can at the deadline cuz that's all they've been good for lately.

 

[bmneveu]

IFT 100G COB Today.

I met my goal of finding 2% this month, and I was only in for 4 days. The problem is, I also found -2% one of those days. I might come out with a few coins if small caps stay over 1% the rest of the day.

Edit: I'll actually make money on the move if the S fund brings in half a percent or more.

 

[bmneveu]

IFT 100G COB Today.

I met my goal of finding 2% this month, and I was only in for 4 days. The problem is, I also found -2% one of those days. I might come out with a few coins if small caps stay over 1% the rest of the day.

Edit: I'll actually make money on the move if the S fund brings in half a percent or more.

R2K sold off about half a percent in the last half hour of trading, grrr...

 

[bmneveu]

Went short with TZA at the close. Got it @ $10.41

 

[bmneveu]

Doubled down my shorts on the gap up. TZA @ $10.13. Buy low Sell high, right? Well we're near all time highs now...

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Doubled down my shorts on the gap up. TZA @ $10.13. Buy low Sell high, right? Well we're near all time highs now...

Brave man...

 

[Birchtree]

Sometimes our best lessons are made from our mistakes.

 

[JimmyJoe]

Sometimes our best lessons are made from our mistakes.

I'll agree with you there, but the past is the past. Now I'm learning from my correct choices, and how sweet it is. It is sure something about getting paid for doing something right. Greed is a choice. Happiness is a choice. Therefore, the law of congruency states that greed is happiness. I'm enjoying all this, this monetary gain, this status as a high stakes player. The doors have been blown off and we are unleashed.

 

[bmneveu]

If I were in equities here, it would be a very defensive position. I've been looking at REM -- a REIT index with very low beta and over 11% dividend. Even with the low volatility, the index is up 9.66% on the year. This is only one example, but I think the story here is that people are reallocating to safer bets as we climb higher.

 

[bmneveu]

This small cap dip here is hard to not throw money at. But I think I'll wait for a more sizable sell-off.

 

[bmneveu]

Backtesting 24 years to 1988, an average annual rate of return of 14.5% is attainable with 2 IFTs per year. Move from S fund to F fund around April 30th, and back to S fund around September 30th. So to summarize, bonds in the summer and small caps the rest of the way. In the same 24 years, the best single fund annualized return was the S at 11.23%. Not a bad beat for 2 IFTs a year, eh?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Backtesting 24 years to 1988, an average annual rate of return of 14.5% is attainable with 2 IFTs per year. Move from S fund to F fund around April 30th, and back to S fund around September 30th. So to summarize, bonds in the summer and small caps the rest of the way. In the same 24 years, the best single fund annualized return was the S at 11.23%. Not a bad beat for 2 IFTs a year, eh?

What are the annual returns? I am curious how much draw down there is while in either fund. Thanks for the research, sounds interesting!

 

[bmneveu]

What are the annual returns? I am curious how much draw down there is while in either fund. Thanks for the research, sounds interesting!

I tried to copy and paste the table in but it was too many characters, lol. So I'll just give the returns..

1988 +17.71%
1989 +15.79%
1990 +1.55% (S fund lost 15.98% this year)
1991 +39.25%
1992 +18.00%
1993 +5.27%
1994 -6.06%
1995 +18.13%
1996 +17.37%
1997 -0.91% (S fund gained 24.05% this year)
1998 +45.06% (S fund gained 7.35% this year)
1999 +38.13%
2000 -18.24%
2001 +17.34% (S fund lost 9.03% this year)
2002 +13.30% (S fund lost 18.14% this year)
2003 +20.69% (S fund gained 42.93% this year)
2004 +19.11%
2005 -3.47%
2006 +24.44%
2007 +4.91%
2008 -30.82%
2009 +13.19% (S fund gained 34.82% this year)
2010 +39.81%
2011 +32.25% (S fund lost 3.40% this year)
2012 +19.95%

Averaging out to +14.47%, or about 3% better than holding the best gainer (S). I noted the biggest differences from buy n hold S fund. Again, this is with 2 IFTs a year.

 

[MaStA]

^ very nice

 

[Cactus]

Huh? The S & I Funds weren't created as TSP Funds until 2001. I'm guessing you mean the Wilshire 4500 when you say S Fund here. You may want to clearer this up a little.

 

[bmneveu]

Huh? The S & I Funds weren't created as TSP Funds until 2001. I'm guessing you mean the Wilshire 4500 when you say S Fund here. You may want to clearer this up a little.

Yes I used the Wilshire 4500. My apologies and good call!

 

[bmneveu]

Correction ensues?