7/17/12
Stocks pulled backed on Monday, from Friday's 200+ point gain in the Dow. The Dow lost 50-points in more light volume trading as retail sales came in weaker than expected.
[TABLE="width: 90%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 241"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD] +0.012%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD] +0.19%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD] - 0.23%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD] - 0.49%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD] - 0.20%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The loss was the 7th consecutive Monday with a losing return. The good news for the bulls is, the next day, Tuesday, was positive after 5 of those 6 negative Mondays.
The S&P 500 saw a modest pullback from Friday's high. Not much to talk about there yet. The trends and support are still intact.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note is flirting with new a low. We will either see a double bottom rebound this week, or we'll get new all time lows in the yield. New lows would be the news headline, but probably not a surprise.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
When yields go down, bond prices and the F-fund go up.
The dollar has pulled back from it's recent attempt at new highs and looks to be forming a possible double top.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
There are a couple of open gaps on the chart, with the big one sitting near 22.60 (in the UUP dollar ETF - Exchange Traded Fund). The bottom of that gap lines up with the rising support line, but if the dollar does not make a new high soon, we could be looking at a trading range on this UUP ETF between 22.40 and about 23.00. The significance of that would be that a move down to the bottom of the range would be a pretty positive asset to the stock market. Of course a new high and a breakout in the dollar would mean the opposite.
Earnings season in getting into full gear with some big names coming out today. As we talked about yesterday, the question is whether the market reacts positively as the stock index charts might suggest, or if we see more of the "sell the news" reaction to the earnings.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
