5/15/12
Mondays have sure been a struggle for this market since the early April high. Yesterday's 125-loss was the 4th negative Monday in a row, and 5th out of the last 6. Now the bulls are looking for a turnaround Tuesday.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] - 1.10%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] - 1.34%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] - 1.76%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:
[/TD]
[TD] +0.13%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:
[/TD]
[TD] +0.004%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 chart is clearly broken, but with the 20-day EMA crossing below the 50-day EMA, which is a short-term indication of being oversold, some possible weak support here just under 1340, and sentiment getting extremely bearish, I think there are two scenarios left: A crash, or a rally - and since crashes are very rare...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Transportation Index has been beaten up pretty good too, but now the 200-day EMA might help. It too has just seen the 50-day EMA fall below the 20-day EMA.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq is stubbornly holding that 2900 area, and if it can hold, the bulls will be looking for that open gap to finally get filled which, if timed right, could coincide with a test of the new descending resistance like.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
At the risk of being redundant, I wanted to show that, while the dumb money (CBOE and Equity) continues to get heavily bearish with their put/call ratio, the smart money (OEX) has started to get a little more interested in buying.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note is flirting with the 2011 lows, which would be a new all-time low if it is broken. How low can it go?
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I don't know, but the bond market does not seem to have a lot of faith in the U.S. economy right now as the weak European economy will likely continue to be a drag on our financial institutions.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
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