A quick review of March/Q1, then a peek into April & Q2's historical performance.
With a -5.75% monthly loss, Mar-2025 ranked 4th worst of 64.
With a -4.59% quarterly loss, Q1-2025 ranked 12th worst of 64.
As a reminder, in the February blog, I stated 10% of yearly lows were found in March, with 56% in Q1.
___From 1962 the yearly win ratio is 73% with an average gain of 16.62%
___For the 35 years where the yearly low was in Q1, the yearly win ratio was 100% with an average gain of 19.53%
For some perspective, this is where 2025 currently ranks within the hierarchy of the previous 63 years.
___Sorted from best to worst at the March column.
______The 11 years both above & 11 under Mar-2025 have a 50% win ratio with average gain of 11.30% and average loss of -15.77%
For monthly win ratios, both April and December have the highest 63-year historical win ratios at 71%.
April has closed positive 10 of the last 12 years.
___I should also acknowledge the 4th worst month of the past 12 years was in April 2022 with a -8.80% loss.
Rolling into Q2, for the 24 years where Q1 closed down, Q2's win ratio dropped from 62% to 50%
___The average gain increased from 6.24% to 8.13%
___But also its average loss decreased from -5.45% to -8.63%
___These statistics may imply when Q1 closes down, volatility increases in Q2
Lastly, on the yearly historical timeframe.
___We have our first monthly close under the 12-Ma since the 1-shot -.25% under from Oct-2023
___We are .91% above the center fair-value line of the 60-Month Linear Regression Channel.
___Since Nov-2024 volume has increased each month, March saw the highest volume since June-2020
______March saw the the highest negative volume since March-2020 (the COVID Bottom).
April is a new Quarter, a new Month, and a new Opportunity.
The good news, expectations are already low so perhaps there's not much disappointment left to be had.
Of the 7 worst closes of March, April closed positive all 7 times.
Thanks for reading, have a great month....Jason
With a -5.75% monthly loss, Mar-2025 ranked 4th worst of 64.
With a -4.59% quarterly loss, Q1-2025 ranked 12th worst of 64.
As a reminder, in the February blog, I stated 10% of yearly lows were found in March, with 56% in Q1.
___From 1962 the yearly win ratio is 73% with an average gain of 16.62%
___For the 35 years where the yearly low was in Q1, the yearly win ratio was 100% with an average gain of 19.53%
For some perspective, this is where 2025 currently ranks within the hierarchy of the previous 63 years.
___Sorted from best to worst at the March column.
______The 11 years both above & 11 under Mar-2025 have a 50% win ratio with average gain of 11.30% and average loss of -15.77%
For monthly win ratios, both April and December have the highest 63-year historical win ratios at 71%.
April has closed positive 10 of the last 12 years.
___I should also acknowledge the 4th worst month of the past 12 years was in April 2022 with a -8.80% loss.
Rolling into Q2, for the 24 years where Q1 closed down, Q2's win ratio dropped from 62% to 50%
___The average gain increased from 6.24% to 8.13%
___But also its average loss decreased from -5.45% to -8.63%
___These statistics may imply when Q1 closes down, volatility increases in Q2
Lastly, on the yearly historical timeframe.
___We have our first monthly close under the 12-Ma since the 1-shot -.25% under from Oct-2023
___We are .91% above the center fair-value line of the 60-Month Linear Regression Channel.
___Since Nov-2024 volume has increased each month, March saw the highest volume since June-2020
______March saw the the highest negative volume since March-2020 (the COVID Bottom).
April is a new Quarter, a new Month, and a new Opportunity.
The good news, expectations are already low so perhaps there's not much disappointment left to be had.
Of the 7 worst closes of March, April closed positive all 7 times.
Thanks for reading, have a great month....Jason
Last edited:
