12/03/25
It was a battle yesterday as stocks went back and forth and in the end the three major indices closed with modest to moderate gains, while the small caps were flat closing at their lows of the day, and the I-fund held onto a small gain. A big rebound in bitcoin may have helped because yields and the dollar were basically flat and not a factor.
Stocks were down on Monday when bitcoin declined, but bitcoin rallied back on Turnaround Tuesday and stocks followed along holding onto gains, but it was a struggle. The S&P 500 gapped up higher and the lows of the day were near Monday's closing price, which held a couple of times during intraday pullbacks as the indices looked for direction.
And here was bitcoin's bounce back. It's an ugly chart, and while it is not mirroring the S&P 500 chart, big moves are having an influence on the US indices.
The charts are digesting the big 5-day rally surrounding Thanksgiving Day, and of course before that the bears were having their day in the sun. Now the two are battling it out for the next move - whether it be new highs, or another trip down to test the recent lows.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) is doing some of that digesting, and while it may be too early to say, it could be trying to form a bull flag, and the right shoulder of a bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern. The shoulder doesn't have to be a particular size, but there's a chance it could be looking to match the size of the left shoulder which is anywhere from 6700 down to 6640. Or, the channel's support line can continue to hold here above 6800. It's at quite a pivot point.
The Dow Transportation Index, normally considered a market leader, has been holding above its recent highs, and just below the January highs near 16,900 (not shown.) This is a good sign, but this chart has been disappointing in recent years, so let's see if it can hold.
The odds of a Fed rate cut on December 10th is up to 89%.
We will get manufacturing data this morning and the key inflation data from the PCE Prices report on Friday.
The DWCPF Index (S-Fund) pulled back late to close at its lows of the day, but it did close flat and the descending resistance line continues to hold as support. It came a long way in those five days and that gives it an excuse to do some backing and filling in the short-term, but there is plenty of support near 2465.
ACWX (I-fund) held onto some gains but it continues to look vulnerable while trading under that old broken support line. 65.50 looks like it could be a good area to get tested, and that may or may not happen, but this chart needs some help to get back into that red that channel.
BND (bonds / F-fund) had a small gain as the support line, which was an old resistance line, held again.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
It was a battle yesterday as stocks went back and forth and in the end the three major indices closed with modest to moderate gains, while the small caps were flat closing at their lows of the day, and the I-fund held onto a small gain. A big rebound in bitcoin may have helped because yields and the dollar were basically flat and not a factor.
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Stocks were down on Monday when bitcoin declined, but bitcoin rallied back on Turnaround Tuesday and stocks followed along holding onto gains, but it was a struggle. The S&P 500 gapped up higher and the lows of the day were near Monday's closing price, which held a couple of times during intraday pullbacks as the indices looked for direction.
And here was bitcoin's bounce back. It's an ugly chart, and while it is not mirroring the S&P 500 chart, big moves are having an influence on the US indices.
The charts are digesting the big 5-day rally surrounding Thanksgiving Day, and of course before that the bears were having their day in the sun. Now the two are battling it out for the next move - whether it be new highs, or another trip down to test the recent lows.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) is doing some of that digesting, and while it may be too early to say, it could be trying to form a bull flag, and the right shoulder of a bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern. The shoulder doesn't have to be a particular size, but there's a chance it could be looking to match the size of the left shoulder which is anywhere from 6700 down to 6640. Or, the channel's support line can continue to hold here above 6800. It's at quite a pivot point.
The Dow Transportation Index, normally considered a market leader, has been holding above its recent highs, and just below the January highs near 16,900 (not shown.) This is a good sign, but this chart has been disappointing in recent years, so let's see if it can hold.
The odds of a Fed rate cut on December 10th is up to 89%.
We will get manufacturing data this morning and the key inflation data from the PCE Prices report on Friday.
The DWCPF Index (S-Fund) pulled back late to close at its lows of the day, but it did close flat and the descending resistance line continues to hold as support. It came a long way in those five days and that gives it an excuse to do some backing and filling in the short-term, but there is plenty of support near 2465.
ACWX (I-fund) held onto some gains but it continues to look vulnerable while trading under that old broken support line. 65.50 looks like it could be a good area to get tested, and that may or may not happen, but this chart needs some help to get back into that red that channel.
BND (bonds / F-fund) had a small gain as the support line, which was an old resistance line, held again.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
