Big day today!?

[JerBer]

imported post

Why do you think the markets went bonkers today? Was it the oil news? Relative calm in the middle east? Getting closer to the transfer of power in Iraq? Or just because people are happy that summer is almost here? Can this good feeling continue on for awhile, possibly through the next couple weeks or longer? Has the market been conforming to the many differential theories recently?Friz? Rolo? PR?

Anyone got that crystal ball yet?

JerBer

 

[Frizz B.]

imported post

My differential theory says it is time to sell and get back into the G fund. But am I going to. don't think so. When the market went down I jumped back to the S fund to soon, although I still did whatt my system was programmed to do, I could have done a little better if I had rode the wave down a little longer. So our top number so far has been 341, right now at 315, let us hope with all the good news (330-340) is a possibility, if so, I will be looking to get back to safe water in the G Fund and wait for the next market change backwards. Who knows, hopefully I will be able to adjust the numbers againg to higher grounds.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

My differential theory says it is time to sell and get back into the G fund. But am I going to. don't think so. When the market went down I jumped back to the S fund to soon, although I still did whatt my system was programmed to do, I could have done a little better if I had rode the wave down a little longer.

Frizz, This was the one problem I originally had with your system and I love what you are doing withthe adjustments you are making. Sometimes rallies keep going up and declines don't stop decliningjust because our indicators say it should.

Maybe this is where you can get away from your all or nothing strategy. When your indicators hit the old differential, for example,but you think the marketis still showing momentum, maybe you can go to a 75% - 25% or, 50% - 50% allocation until the new differential is hit.

Just a thought. Keep up the good work!
Tom

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

oneyoungbuck wrote:

All the Differentials are saying SELL! C Fund-100/ I Fund-46/ F Fund is at 306 above the mean (300). Going 25%G and 75%S, still think S Fund will rise.

I like the strategy. :^ That's what I'm talking about Frizz. If we get a little profit talking buck's locked in some profits but if we continue to rally he's still quite invested.

 

[Rolo]

imported post

Why is the market doing what it is doing? I have no idea. It did seem like that it what it is going to do.

The C fund disappointed me today.

FRO attached. Today's red line is at 331. Notice the future trend direction.

I am contemplating Tom's "take a little off the table" suggestion. Given that a transfer request now won't take effect until Wednesday, I think pulling back half may not be a bad idea.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Rolo wrote:

Why is the market doing what it is doing? I have no idea. It did seem like that it what it is going to do.

Just a reminder, the first 5 trading days of June are typically stronger than average (it sure was this year) but the 6th and 7th day are not very strong. I fact they are pretty weak days historically.

Courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

 

[Mr. Duke]

imported post

Pulling out ofmy 50/50 "I" and "S" going 100% G effective Wed a.m.......looking/hoping for another positive day tomorrow and investor profit taking Wed.

Got to love days like this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Rolo]

imported post

Oh, wow, I forgot about that chart.

If the seasonality is true:

• Definitely be out by the 11th day (Jun 16).
• The 9th day would be better, which would have been this Friday, but will be Jun 14th instead.
• Bailing Wednesday close would be least favourable.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Rolo wrote:

Oh, wow, I forgot about that chart.

If the seasonality is true:

• Definitely be out by the 11th day (Jun 16).
• The 9th day would be better, which would have been this Friday, but will be Jun 14th instead.
• Bailing Wednesday close would be least favourable.

These seasonality charts have burned me at times. Even on the worst day, shown by the dotted lines and based what percetage of the time that day is positive,the market was up about 40% of the time. It's not gospel but a semi-useful tool.

I think it best shows how the first and last days of the month are stronger than average. That is true in almost every month. But the 6th and 7th days of June are fairly beyond random and it is most likely based on profit taking from the strong first 5 days.

 

[Rolo]

imported post

tsptalk wrote:

But the 6th and 7th days of June are fairly beyond random and it is most likely based on profit taking from the strong first 5 days.

I'll go along with that. I don't think a little profit-taking will hurt anyone.

I still cannot find a chart site that has real-time volume for $SPX and $DWCP, bigcharts.com (I like that site) does not have volume for the indexes.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Rolo wrote:

I still cannot find a chart site that has real-time volume for $SPX and $DWCP, bigcharts.com (I like that site) does not have volume for the indexes.

http://finance.yahoo.com/m1?u This tracks basically all you'll need volume-wise. The NYSE and the Nasdaq are the bulk of all stocks traded in U.S.. These are actual Stock Exchanges as opposed to indices. I don't believevolume is tracked for indices like the Wilshire 4500 or Russell 2000 or even the Dow.

 

[Rolo]

imported post

tsptalk wrote:

I don't believevolume is tracked for indices like the Wilshire 4500 or Russell 2000 or even the Dow.

Ooooooh....that makes sense...nothin' like searching for something that dosn't exist!

The Yahoo charts have the same problem that all the others I found have: information up to yesterday and none of today's. I wanted check today's volume action to see how much profit-taking there was; light volume would make me happier.


What does "Money Flow" and "On-Balance Volume" mean? Ihave no problem finding those.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Rolo wrote:

The Yahoo charts have the same problem that all the others I found have: information up to yesterday and none of today's. I wanted check today's volume action to see how much profit-taking there was; light volume would make me happier.

This isn't what you are looking for?...

finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^TV.N&d=t

finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^TV.O&d=t

You'll have to cut and past them.

 

[Rolo]

imported post

Those are neat! Ya, that is better than what I was looking for. Thanks!

It looks like today will be a little lighter, but not by too much.

finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^TV.O&t=5d

[align=center][/align]

 

[Rolo]

imported post

This is a neat chart from http://smartdaytrader.com

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

That breakout is a great sign that the worst is over. I still think we may pull back to that line and test that new support.

 

[WiseOne]

imported post

:?Tom, how do you think the death of Ronald Reagon will affect the markets? Heard they will be closed Friday...

 

[Rolo]

imported post

tsptalk wrote:

That breakout is a great sign that the worst is over. I still think we may pull back to that line and test that new support.

I think so, too. I think that line is a bit comforting in that it may be the lowest it will go for a while, assuming that becomes the case.

 

[smine]

imported post

The markets are closed on Friday.

 

[Rolo]

imported post

I wonder how Monday will look, given the recent breakout and the long weekend.