BearTrap's Account Talk

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Can the markets go for the record of 13 consecutive up days? Last time that happened was 1986 going into '87. Doesn't history tend to repeat itself?

I think equities will see another pop-up prior to any pullback. VIX continues to drop and looks like a bear flag forming in the F fund.
 
Cyprus causing a bit of a shakeup this morning. Goes to show you that none of the macro, geopolitical instability out there is factored into the markets. Makes you wonder what might happen if/when we deal with just one of the following: Italian elections, EU in general, Israel bombing Iran nuclear sites, N Africa, N Korea, Chinese real estate, global currency wars, end of QE, US budget and debt ceiling........
 
Will hopefully get a buy signal this week. Everything is very close, if not at, support lines. Turn around Tuesday? Indicators say otherwise, but Uncle Ben speaks today.
 
I was hoping to make my 2nd IFT this week but it is not looking so good. The bears have control of C, S, I at the moment. The I (EFA chart) has a gap to fill about 12% down. Is it time for that gap to get filled? Not giving up on a buy for C or S just yet. Will have to see how today plays out.....
 
April has been very good to me thus far but am not sure if I will get to use my 2nd IFT. Tomorrow will be a pretty boring day for the markets so there may be a small pop. I'm looking at C as having the best potential buying opportunity. Next week should be interesting.....
 
Decided to make a play on C and I yesterday. I am a bit nervous about Friday's GDP. Estimates are at 3.1%. It seems like a high estimate given the last GDP; however, look how the markets have climbed since.
 
My indicators said to go for I, but was a bit "gun shy" from past experiences. I fund has treated me well the past few months and should have stuck with the system and not have stuck half of my trade in C. Can anyone explain how the "fair market" value of I plays out? I hasn't been tracking closely with EFA. Is there a different index that I should be following?
 
BearTrap said:
My indicators said to go for I, but was a bit "gun shy" from past experiences. I fund has treated me well the past few months and should have stuck with the system and not have stuck half of my trade in C. Can anyone explain how the "fair market" value of I plays out? I hasn't been tracking closely with EFA. Is there a different index that I should be following?
Click to expand...

Ebb keeps up with it

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/members-account-talk/16251-ebbs-account-talk.html#post404147
 
The I fund contains 23% Japanese stocks and those individual issues will continue a parabolic rise - then Europe will catch fire as Japanese money seeks yield there.
 
The real reason why markets are soaring is due to the full blown currency war. Several smaller Euro and Asia/Pacific nations joined the party. Next big player to enter the war will be China. This bull market is going to keep on rolling..... Question is how hard are we going to fall once the central banks slow down the printing presses?
 
BearTrap said:
The real reason why markets are soaring is due to the full blown currency war. Several smaller Euro and Asia/Pacific nations joined the party. Next big player to enter the war will be China. This bull market is going to keep on rolling..... Question is how hard are we going to fall once the central banks slow down the printing presses?[/ QUOTE]I don't want to think about it.:confused:
Click to expand...
 
My system is very close to a buy on S; however, very skeptical that yesterday was a bull trap. Unfortunately I'll have to sit out today to wait for the FOMC minutes to come in. I am guessing the typical knee jerk reaction after 2:00 eastern. I'm a bear on C and the I fund has lost its momentum. C and S are not far off from the yearly highs so we've seen a pretty minor correction. That said, any kind of reversal probably won't produce much of a return. Let's see what happens......
 
My system has just moved to a buy for C-S-I. The only issue is that each has a battle with overhead resistance right now on the charts. Will tomorrow (Wed.) be the typical turnaround Tuesday? I'll wait one more day for confirmation before I buy. I think there is still time for "1987" to play itself out this fall. Syria, Fed budget, the taper, jobs, etc all having big impacts this month. I'm looking for a quick in and out this month.
 
Made a move to C- and I-funds today. Looks like they are coming out of the oversold condition, VIX moving out of overbought condition and throw in all the talking heads calling for doom. I think there is a solid buy signal every time Mark Faber makes CNBC headlines. Not expecting much out of this trade due to the upcoming bombings in Syria. Looks like it is not a matter of if, but when. Maybe they can hold off until after the jobs report on Friday?
 
Got out of equities today. Big up day today can only mean a turnaround Tuesday tomorrow. Obama speaks tomorrow night. I just can't justify staying in when war drums are beating, gov't budget fiasco, taper talk, 3% on the 10 yr, and not to mention Uncle Ben's replacement. How would the markets react if Larry gets the job? It'll be an interesting couple of weeks. Time to snuggle under the warm blanket of the G fund.
 
C-S-I have ugly chart patterns. Higher highs and lower lows. The charts displayed the same pattern in April and June which had higher highs, lower lows, got to form a double top and then continued on for an addition 5% or more gain. Can it go 3 for 3? I pulled my money early on the last two occurrences mainly b/c of seasonality and the breaking of records. I think I may have been wrong again. Sept. will probably remain pretty quiet. Expect the fed to do another generic release of info, the Syria can has been kicked, we'll most likely have a last minute budget deal that will spur a small rally, and the 10 yr will probably go sideways for a few weeks. My suggestion would be to stay in.
 
Buy, Buy, Buy! No one saw that one coming. Another round of subsidized markets. S&P 1800 here we come. Feel sorry for the shorts out there....
 
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