BearTrap's Account Talk

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Uncle Ben decided to start up the printing presses again. QE for ever.... Time to jump in and watch my favorite show C-S-I. Now when is the crash going to be? The next downgrade of the US credit rating? The upcoming "fiscal cliff?" There's no such thing as a free lunch and generation Xer's like myself will be paying for that meal.
 
My system is leaning hard on F right now with $TNX hitting strong overhead resistance and all the automated algorithmic trading going into equities.
 
Going F at this time. Hopefully I will not be watching CSI continue to go up. Hard to not jump into equities, but every time I chase the bull I get burned. Will be looking for buying opportunities in CSI. I think the first week in Oct will be pretty rough as 3rd Quarter profits reports start rolling in along with a terrible job report for Sept. Congress will probably pull out an 11th hour save on the fiscal cliff (kicking the can down the road) which will be our "Santa Rally"
 
Looks like my last call on F was a good one. Now looking to jump into S today, but that depends on this morning's indicators. S ($EMW) blew through the 18 day and middle bollinger band yesterday. Another long drop to the 50 day SMA which is the next level of support.
 
Had a great move in late Sept/early Oct now positioning to make a 2nd IFT. S fund looks very bearish like it will continue to slip and slide down the bottom bollinger band unless Uncle Ben has something nice to say to stimulate movement. I wouldn't bet against that trend (a Bull Trap forming?) in the near term especially with strong overhead resistance and the 20 day getting ready to go below the 50 day SMA. I fund (W4500 chart) has a large open gap to the upside. Could this be the best play if that 50 day SMA holds support?
 
Looks like status quo and 'fiscal cliff' will dominate headlines. I mentioned earlier that our Santa Rally will be the last minute save by congress to divert the cliff and extend the tax cuts. Keep your eye on Greece. I fund is looking like it could be a great play; however, if the vote tonight goes sour then a big pull back could take place. Futures are down and the bearish pattern in S will remain for the time being. S has ~2.8% risk to the downside before the next level of support. It was hard to not jump in the other day to catch the little bounce, but with a lot of month left there will be plenty of time for a solid IFT.
 
With support holding in S maybe this is a good time to jump in a catch some low volume rising for a few days. Not much happening until next Wed, and a holiday. Although I prefer not to buy into long weekends.....
 
100% S

President speaks today. Tone will be comprise, kumbaya, let's hold hands with John B. Generally, gridlock is a good thing!
 
Some low volume rising which is OK by me. Two fiscal cliffs, one on each side of the Atlantic. Looks like the politicians are falling in line and would expect a deal soon. Will probably be another kick-the-can maneuver in DC. Greece could be a wet blanket on a good rally. Merry Christmas, the Santa Rally will come in Nov.
 
To sell or not to sell? C-S-I starting to reach critical levels. Can they move beyond the 18 day SMA or will that area serve as resistance? Ready to move as the 'fiscal cliff' will throw a wet blanket on the rally in the coming days. Watch that 690 level on $EMW. F appears to be breaking down, which would be good; however, the bears do not have control just yet.
 
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