Bearish

BEARISH
Playing Devil's advocate.
​

Ok I'm not really Bearish, but somebody around here has to even out all this foolish bullishness everywhere I look.

For our leader the Transports I'm only going to show one chart but I'm going to give you four pictures building this chart backwards from the ground up. If you can, try to look at each chart in the order it's posted and read the description for each chart (no cheating please.)




First we have 2 green boxes. Within each box is your basic 5-wave Elliot Wave pattern. We also have 2 yellow boxes, each representing the difference between the 20EMA & the 200EMA. I'd also like you to notice the price box on the right is larger than the price box on the left. We also have two red arrows representing the beginning of a large pullback in price.











Nothing special here, next we add the 20EMA & 200 EMA.











Next we add the candlesticks, so you can see the near 8% pullback in prices between the two boxes.











Lastly we remove all those silly boxes and add a 20EMA Bollinger Band. We'll see here what happens when prices gave us a strong break above the upper band.






Now I'm not going so far as to say this is what's going to happen or that wave 5 in the second box is resolved. I just wanted to give you a bit of defensive perspective going into next week.


Take care and thanks for reading...Jason

 

[Birchtree]

I've got myself prepared for a pullback - not to the extent you are defensive however. If the hit doesn't come until later we continue to move forward getting lighter as time passes but still making gains. There are about 50 tracker members ahead of me that are fully loaded and set to experience the 'Tokyo Drift' as they drift down past my position - at least that's the plan. JP Morgan thinks we got 20% ahead of us from here. That would place the SPX at around 1440 - but there will be pain before the gain and that's the fun part.

 

[grandma]

Thank you, Jason, for the `building block' boxes! This really helps seeing the relationship of those different terms.
Is there ever a pattern in the wave 5's?
Box 1 Wave 5 is longer than the pre-box 1. Box 2, today, is longer than the box 1 (as seen in your final chart.)
I ask that, because if a system can be read into the LMBF outlook, can the same be said about the Elliot waves. And, also, maybe I've already read that somewhere when we've discussed EW on the mb.....
Anyway, I'm sure you had fun putting this together! And I thank you !!

 

[JTH]

Thank you, Jason, for the `building block' boxes! This really helps seeing the relationship of those different terms.
Is there ever a pattern in the wave 5's?
Box 1 Wave 5 is longer than the pre-box 1. Box 2, today, is longer than the box 1 (as seen in your final chart.)
I ask that, because if a system can be read into the LMBF outlook, can the same be said about the Elliot waves. And, also, maybe I've already read that somewhere when we've discussed EW on the mb.....
Anyway, I'm sure you had fun putting this together! And I thank you !!

Honestly I don't have enough faith in EW to say the next ABC waves will be as severe as the previous correction. We may just get a 2-3% pullback instead of a 6-10% correction.

 

[James48843]

Scares the heck out of me. I think I'll move off to safety.