02/24/26
Stocks sold off to start the week, sending some indices back toward the bottom of their recent ranges. We saw losses of at least 1% in most indices, and small caps were down closer to 2%. The I-fund continues to lead the US funds. It was down, but much less an 1%. Bonds and the F-fund rallied with yields declining.
The action in the stock market continues to be tentative after repeated failed attempts to break out to new highs. The S&P 500 gave back most of last week's gains with yesterday's loss, and that puts it back toward the bottom of its three month range. That's a level that must hold, and there is a key moving average (not shown) near 6815.
Whether this dip can be bought, or whether it needs to be sold, remains to be seen. It's always tough to know when a pull back is going to turn into a more serious correction.
Warren Buffett and his partners have always told us that you can't time the stock market, or at least they've claimed that they don't know how to do it, but if their Berkshire Hathaway is any indication, they are sitting on an all-time high $382 billion in cash. To give you an idea, according to Barchart, that's enough to buy 480 companies in the S&P 500!
It sounds like they are expecting that there will be a better day to be buyers. As I mentioned above the S&P 500 is above some support, but this chart shows it is below other support lines, including the 50-day moving average and the blue ascending trading channel.
The 10-Year Treasury Yield was down sharply as investors try to price in the ramifications of the Supreme Court's decision on tariffs, President's Trump's next plan of attack, and its impact on the strength of the economy. Yesterday's decline in the yield did fill in an open gap that goes back to the close on November 28.
The dollar was down slightly after a positive reversal day, but it is still struggling to get back above the 50-day moving average.
Again, it's tough to say what's next and many pros are just waiting to see which end of the trading range is going to break first before placing any big bets. I'm in the same boat. I have cash to do some buying, but I do own enough stock funds that I could lighten up more if the technical picture worsens.
Nvidia reports earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) was hit the hardest of the TSP funds yesterday, but once again the 50-day moving average held. There is an open gap at the bottom of the red box near 2510, but the biggest problem is the head and shoulders pattern, so that 2510 area must hold.
The ACWX (I fund) was down but outperformed the US TSP stock funds again, with that loss of less than 1%. It would be vulnerable if its support broke, but it remains in the ascending trading channel.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied sharply with the decline in yields, and suddenly this overly extended chart is racing higher again after filling in its open gap. It feels like a safety trade with everything going on right now.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks sold off to start the week, sending some indices back toward the bottom of their recent ranges. We saw losses of at least 1% in most indices, and small caps were down closer to 2%. The I-fund continues to lead the US funds. It was down, but much less an 1%. Bonds and the F-fund rallied with yields declining.
| Daily TSP Funds Return More returns |
The action in the stock market continues to be tentative after repeated failed attempts to break out to new highs. The S&P 500 gave back most of last week's gains with yesterday's loss, and that puts it back toward the bottom of its three month range. That's a level that must hold, and there is a key moving average (not shown) near 6815.
Whether this dip can be bought, or whether it needs to be sold, remains to be seen. It's always tough to know when a pull back is going to turn into a more serious correction.
Warren Buffett and his partners have always told us that you can't time the stock market, or at least they've claimed that they don't know how to do it, but if their Berkshire Hathaway is any indication, they are sitting on an all-time high $382 billion in cash. To give you an idea, according to Barchart, that's enough to buy 480 companies in the S&P 500!
It sounds like they are expecting that there will be a better day to be buyers. As I mentioned above the S&P 500 is above some support, but this chart shows it is below other support lines, including the 50-day moving average and the blue ascending trading channel.
The 10-Year Treasury Yield was down sharply as investors try to price in the ramifications of the Supreme Court's decision on tariffs, President's Trump's next plan of attack, and its impact on the strength of the economy. Yesterday's decline in the yield did fill in an open gap that goes back to the close on November 28.
The dollar was down slightly after a positive reversal day, but it is still struggling to get back above the 50-day moving average.
Again, it's tough to say what's next and many pros are just waiting to see which end of the trading range is going to break first before placing any big bets. I'm in the same boat. I have cash to do some buying, but I do own enough stock funds that I could lighten up more if the technical picture worsens.
Nvidia reports earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) was hit the hardest of the TSP funds yesterday, but once again the 50-day moving average held. There is an open gap at the bottom of the red box near 2510, but the biggest problem is the head and shoulders pattern, so that 2510 area must hold.
The ACWX (I fund) was down but outperformed the US TSP stock funds again, with that loss of less than 1%. It would be vulnerable if its support broke, but it remains in the ascending trading channel.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied sharply with the decline in yields, and suddenly this overly extended chart is racing higher again after filling in its open gap. It feels like a safety trade with everything going on right now.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
