From our 2/13/09 daily market commentary:
I don't always understand exactly "why" the market goes up and down, which is why I am more interested in "when" the market goes up and down. If the reason the market rallied on this news was because it brings more clarity to the stimulus, then so be it. All I am interested in is that the S&P 500 broke below the lower support of the wedge, and closed back into it.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This could be a false break out. Today's action will help sort this out. If the support holds, and the S&P can stay within the wedge, then we have a nice little reversal pattern and we should see a move above yesterday's high today. Otherwise, yesterday would just be another lower low and lower high day, and today would continue the downtrend
The MACD indicator above, still shows an underlying improvement, but since we are in an oscillating trading range rather than a trending market, the overbought/oversold indicator is a better tool. Unfortunately, at -10, this indicator is dead neutral - no help.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The 10-day moving average of the CBOE put/call ratio seems to have peaked and is turning down. This is a bearish reading for stocks, as it was in early January. The "dumb money" had become overly bullish.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
There was no change in this week's TSP Talk Sentiment Survey. 34% bulls, 51% bears, which is a 0.67 to 1 ratio and a neutral reading, and the same as last week's results, so the system remains on a buy signal for next week.
The AAII Sentiment Survey came in at 33% bulls, 39% bears for a 0.85 to 1 ratio.
I probably should have posted this yesterday, but here is the seasonality chart for President's Day. This is one holiday that doesn't seem to have a positive bias before or after it.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
We know that we can not actively trade anymore, but our Ebbchart and Trader Fred Systems still provide day to day information about potential short-term swings in the market, even though we can't always act on it in our TSP accounts. One thing the daily Ebbchart is showing today is that we should have reversal day on Tuesday. Just Tuesday. This pattern is not looking past Tuesday. It is just pointing out a pattern that says, whatever happens today, expect an opposite reaction on Tuesday. I don't know if that helps anyone, but I find information like that very interesting.
By the way, I decided to get out of the F-fund after the 3-day rally in bonds. The rally may or may not continue, but I am not going to get greedy. So it's back to G for my 1st transfer in February.
That's all for today. Thanks for reading. Enjoy your long weekend. We'll see you on Tuesday.
I don't always understand exactly "why" the market goes up and down, which is why I am more interested in "when" the market goes up and down. If the reason the market rallied on this news was because it brings more clarity to the stimulus, then so be it. All I am interested in is that the S&P 500 broke below the lower support of the wedge, and closed back into it.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This could be a false break out. Today's action will help sort this out. If the support holds, and the S&P can stay within the wedge, then we have a nice little reversal pattern and we should see a move above yesterday's high today. Otherwise, yesterday would just be another lower low and lower high day, and today would continue the downtrend
The MACD indicator above, still shows an underlying improvement, but since we are in an oscillating trading range rather than a trending market, the overbought/oversold indicator is a better tool. Unfortunately, at -10, this indicator is dead neutral - no help.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The 10-day moving average of the CBOE put/call ratio seems to have peaked and is turning down. This is a bearish reading for stocks, as it was in early January. The "dumb money" had become overly bullish.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
There was no change in this week's TSP Talk Sentiment Survey. 34% bulls, 51% bears, which is a 0.67 to 1 ratio and a neutral reading, and the same as last week's results, so the system remains on a buy signal for next week.
The AAII Sentiment Survey came in at 33% bulls, 39% bears for a 0.85 to 1 ratio.
I probably should have posted this yesterday, but here is the seasonality chart for President's Day. This is one holiday that doesn't seem to have a positive bias before or after it.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
We know that we can not actively trade anymore, but our Ebbchart and Trader Fred Systems still provide day to day information about potential short-term swings in the market, even though we can't always act on it in our TSP accounts. One thing the daily Ebbchart is showing today is that we should have reversal day on Tuesday. Just Tuesday. This pattern is not looking past Tuesday. It is just pointing out a pattern that says, whatever happens today, expect an opposite reaction on Tuesday. I don't know if that helps anyone, but I find information like that very interesting.
By the way, I decided to get out of the F-fund after the 3-day rally in bonds. The rally may or may not continue, but I am not going to get greedy. So it's back to G for my 1st transfer in February.
That's all for today. Thanks for reading. Enjoy your long weekend. We'll see you on Tuesday.
