ATCJeff's Account Talk

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Birchtree said:
If you've got sticky pants for the Fund - no wonder you don't see rates coming down. 100% on a 25 basis point cut and probably a 50 basis point cut to help housing. I'm looking for a concentrated effort by G7 to start buying the dollar - interesting. I'm not allowed in the Griffin thread - he loves me too much.
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Yea I know what Wallstreet thinks the Feds will do at the next meeting. A week ago it was less then 20% for a rate cut, now were sitting at 100%. I just don't buy it. If they cut this time, things are a lot worse then we know or they want us to know.

One other thing I heard today that was me worried, someone said the credit cruch is spilling over into the auto markets. Next will be retail credit!
 
They simply went too far jacking up rates - they have plenty of room to drop them because afterall they are data dependent. If rates come down the G7 members will have no choice but to intervene and begin a concerted effort to buy dollars.
 
This run-up were seeing before the announcement has me concerned. Now I wondering if the smart money will sell after the announcement.
 
Smart money has been selling the past three days. The buying today is mainly the folks who think they're getting a leg up on 'the fed trade' by buying before it happens.

Smart Money has been positioning the 'fed trade' for a few weeks now. As far as they are concerned, the rate cut already happened. I see Smart Money sitting on this, waiting for a selloff, and then buying back-possibly next week.
 
yeah, feels like a trap. If this shakes just the slightest to the upside it could set off some short covering though.

But yeah, I would've preferred fluttering around unchanged. Volume is super light, which adds to the arguement for a bull trap. The only ones buying pre-FOMC are retail buyers/small guys.
 
Raising the rate means the economy is strong,IMO. Wait until tonight or the next and I would wager that AORD gives it all back. Australia's economy has been smoke'n for a couple of years and they are selling goods like crazy to the emerging markets that are their neighbors.
 
The game plan for next week. Monday and Tuesday are already in place for everyone. I'm 100% G. If were down both days, I will jump in on the S(100%) Wednesday and then over to the I(100%) for Thursday's follow through. Then exit for Friday(100% G). If this goes as plan, we could see a potential 5% up week. However, risk is very high right now with these market conditions.

Jeff
 
I think most of us that were out of the market were hoping the rally would hold off until today. Because the rally was yesterday, today I still sit in the G fund. SO much for my plan.

Tom's comments this morning fit prefectly with my new game plan. While the VIX is high, I plan on staying on the sideline until we get major downturn. Somthing along the line of 2-3%. Then I'll get back in the market. If we see huge up day like yesterday, I will bail to the safety of the G fund. Maybe I can a few more percent this year.
 
ATCJeff said:
I think most of us that were out of the market were hoping the rally would hold off until today. Because the rally was yesterday, today I still sit in the G fund. SO much for my plan.

Tom's comments this morning fit prefectly with my new game plan. While the VIX is high, I plan on staying on the sideline until we get major downturn. Somthing along the line of 2-3%. Then I'll get back in the market. If we see huge up day like yesterday, I will bail to the safety of the G fund. Maybe I can a few more percent this year.
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I followed the plan, but I got screwed by Barclay, but there might be one more day left in this corrective bounce.:)
 
I'm waffling right now...might make a balanced play for tomorrow...part gamble in I and S, part F, part G....

The VIX is running a bit high...still not comfortable..which is always a good thing...right???

FS
 
Another one day play tomorrow. However, this time I'll split 50/50 C and S. Last week only the C paid on Friday. The S was a push.

I'll be 100% G for the Holiday.
 
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