04/29/13
Stocks were mixed on Friday as the Dow managed a 12-point gain while the S&P 500 was down slightly, small caps were down modestly, and the Transports were flat.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 154"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.13%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 peaked on Thursday and may be looking to follow the leaders which have already locked in lower highs earlier this month. That would go against the recent trend of the SPY blasting to new highs each time it tested the prior highs. But a lower high would be a concern from a technical analysis standpoint, and with "Sell in May and Go Away" coming up fast, investors who have been brave enough to hold all year, may be looking to finally lock in gains.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Russell 2000 (small caps) have already put in a lower high and it is starting to look like it may put in another one.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The market leading Dow Transpiration Index is also working on a series of lower highs, but unlike the small caps, it has not put in a lower low yet. Support is currently still on the rise forming a pennant formation, but the index is facing the top end resistance right now.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The short-term indicators are overbought and looking like they may be ready to rollover...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Wednesday is May 1st, and while we talked about the first few days in May being strong historically, the month starts the weaker 6-month period for stocks. Stocks have under-performed from May through October, compared with the November to April 6-month period.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Of course not every May to October period is weak, and certainly we have had some great returns in some summer months, but the long-term overall trend is stocks start to back off this time of year. That has been true in recent history as well.
Source: Sell In May And Go Away? 7 S&P 500 Stocks That Could Get Crushed - Yahoo! Finance
On Monday April 15, we talked about the crash in gold and said we'd, "be looking for a bottom in gold this week." In fact gold bottom that very day and since has filled the large open gap so all bets are off. I don't have an opinion where it goes from here.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Gold could continue it's rebound, or the top of the gap could act as resistance. It will likely depend on the usual suspects such as what the dollar is doing, what stocks are doing, what the economic data is telling us, in particular the inflation / deflation numbers.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks were mixed on Friday as the Dow managed a 12-point gain while the S&P 500 was down slightly, small caps were down modestly, and the Transports were flat.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 154"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.13%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 peaked on Thursday and may be looking to follow the leaders which have already locked in lower highs earlier this month. That would go against the recent trend of the SPY blasting to new highs each time it tested the prior highs. But a lower high would be a concern from a technical analysis standpoint, and with "Sell in May and Go Away" coming up fast, investors who have been brave enough to hold all year, may be looking to finally lock in gains.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Russell 2000 (small caps) have already put in a lower high and it is starting to look like it may put in another one.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The market leading Dow Transpiration Index is also working on a series of lower highs, but unlike the small caps, it has not put in a lower low yet. Support is currently still on the rise forming a pennant formation, but the index is facing the top end resistance right now.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The short-term indicators are overbought and looking like they may be ready to rollover...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Wednesday is May 1st, and while we talked about the first few days in May being strong historically, the month starts the weaker 6-month period for stocks. Stocks have under-performed from May through October, compared with the November to April 6-month period.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Of course not every May to October period is weak, and certainly we have had some great returns in some summer months, but the long-term overall trend is stocks start to back off this time of year. That has been true in recent history as well.
Source: Sell In May And Go Away? 7 S&P 500 Stocks That Could Get Crushed - Yahoo! Finance
On Monday April 15, we talked about the crash in gold and said we'd, "be looking for a bottom in gold this week." In fact gold bottom that very day and since has filled the large open gap so all bets are off. I don't have an opinion where it goes from here.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Gold could continue it's rebound, or the top of the gap could act as resistance. It will likely depend on the usual suspects such as what the dollar is doing, what stocks are doing, what the economic data is telling us, in particular the inflation / deflation numbers.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
