Apple, Naz 100, and the MA's

10/25/12

Stocks were positive for most of the day, but investors may have wanted more from the Fed because after the Fed policy statement was released, stocks lost ground. The Dow gave up 25-points.
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[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 149"]
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[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.0036%[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"] -0.01%[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"] -0.31%[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.25%[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.20%[/TD]
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The S&P 500 closed lower on Wednesday but did manage to stay above Tuesday's low. That's some comfort but there were more concerns than comfort yesterday.

102512a.gif

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk


I was singing the praises of the Dow Transportation Index in Wednesday's commentary, for it being up almost 1% on a day when the Dow lost well over 200-points. Well, it plunged 2% yesterday, adding to the confusion in this important index, which doesn't seem to be leading or lagging, but
rather bouncing within a trading range for months now.

102512b.gif

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The Nasdaq 100 Index, the large cap tech stock index, made a lower low yesterday and yesterday's action produced a negative outside day - not usually a good sign. But after the close today, Apple will report earnings.

Apple's earnings usually move the stock dramatically one way or the other, and because it is such a large part of the Nasdaq 100 Index, it will likely move this chart dramatically as well. Being one of the market leaders, this index is important to those in the TSP stock funds.


102512c.gif

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The Naz 100 is about 1% above it's 200-day EMA, and while sentimenTrader.com is talking about the 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) below, the bulls probably won't mind a push below the moving averages.

102512d.gif

Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

As a comparison, here the Nasdaq 100 with the 200-day Simple Moving Average.

102512e.gif

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

In June it was certainly a good time to be a buyer. Are things different today? I guess we'll see if the buyers step up this time.

In June it was certainly a good time to be a buyer. Are things different today? I guess we'll see if the buyers step up this time.

We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

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http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$TRAN is looking ugly to me. In fact, all the charts I watch took a turn towards ugly today. I am not ready to get back in like I thought I was going to- there is just WAAAAAYYY to much ugliness everywhere.


Especially that TRAN chart.


Ugly.

Just ugly.
 
This is one of those times where the charts look bad, everyone's bearish, then we get a 2% rally and the charts improve and we look back say, "Of course! The Naz was at support (200-day SMA), the NYSE was oversold, the Fed continues to pump money, earnings season's about over, etc., and the small, bearish, slow TSP investors gets two days behind the rally.

Either that or we crash - one or the other. :D

I am leaning toward being bearish but a dead cat bounce should suck us in again. Seasonality improves tomorrow (Friday).
 
can you please explain your comment about regarding the Naz 100 being important to TSP stock holders. none of TSP funds track the Naz 100. I would think that an index that is so dominate by one stock could not be an indicator as to how the others will follow. thx
 
He was talking about indexes (C&S) as a whole, not the NAZ specifically. Stocks across the board are influenced by all the trading houses. So influence from the NAZ can cause repercussions in S&P (C)/Wilshire 4500(S).
 
Right. The Nasdaq 100 is a key market leader and the S&P (C) and small caps (S) will likely follow its lead.
 
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