Has anyone actually gone through an analysis using real TSP data and proven that any of these techniques work? If so, post your results and how you made your decisions and with which fund. I'd like to go through and backtest your data to prove to myself it works. Thanks.
I'm still new at this technical analysis. I haven't found anything in particular that I can say works. The only thing I CAN say is that I think technical analysis will help you avoid making a REALLY REALLY stupid decision.
If I would have been doing technical analysis back in May when the big pullback started then, I would have sold my 100% I Fund stake a heck of a lot sooner than I did And I would not have bought back until the 50 day MA was above the 39 week MA and the 20 day MA was above the 50 day MA. As far as I can tell, that is a conservative but pretty safe place to be. Once the Price drops below the 50 MA, then "SELL" is my new mantra. (I might let dropping below the 20 day MA stand for a couple days..)
I think the more subtle analyses are beyond my reach for now. Probably will take years to really come up with a more reliable strategy. I wish I would have started this when I was much younger. From what I can tell, it is your experience that will guide you.
For example, I have analyzed the May 9th drop (in the I Fund) quite a bit now and have alerts and alarms. If I had been doing this longer, I would have more "critical events" to understand and try to develop a strategy for. Guess I can look at historical data, but isn't really that much too look at as far as extreme drops since I Fund is relatively young.
From using my own data extracted from the TSP site, I can say that I no longer trust the stockcarts.com web site and barchart and others. I have checked my data and don't think there are errors (but wouldn't stake my life on it yet.)
Seems like all the charting websites have the numbers for RSI and ROC and MACD(s) a fair amount different than what I'm seeing in my real data. But as I have said, I'm still new and am still looking to see where my data may be wrong. Bottom line: I feel much better looking at my own data.
Let us know what indicators you like best. My next one to evaluate and include in my data is the "slow stochastic". Gotta do this stuff a little bit at a time. There is SOOO MUCH to look at.