Analyst Predictions

[TommyIV]

Jason Goepfert of Sentiment Trader sees warning signs in stock indcies. Two seperate patterns that are said to forcast a market pullback are showing up in the latest trading patterns.

[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Tahoma,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]‘Hindenburg Omen’ and ‘Ohama Titanic Syndrome’ form in a key stock-market index [/FONT]

 

[TommyIV]

2019 was an explosive year for stocks. What do we expect going into the new decade? Top analysts don't expect a repeat but their expectations do vary form each other.

Where will the S&P 500 go in 2020? Here are the most bullish and bearish strategists

 

[TommyIV]

Analysts say the first quarter of 2020 is primed for a melt-up. A "trifecta of catalysts" is set to expand an asset bubble despite underlying issues.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley, led by Michael Wilson, chief U.S. strategist, have described the current state of bullish play as a trifecta of catalysts. Those include accommodative central banks, providing fresh liquidity to already-buoyant markets; easing Brexit uncertainty; and apparent progress toward a meaningful detente in China-U.S.
trade relations.

..melt-up is considered by market pundits as the end phase of an asset bubble and is usually followed by a significant downturn in stock values

Why Wall Street sees the stock market on the verge of a ‘melt-up’

 

[TommyIV]

Reasons to sell versus reason to buy in the past decade:

Buy and hold or surf the ups and downs? Past recessions and bear markets leave behind the concept of risk in the minds of investors even when markets are strong. The potential downfall of stock prices have a greater short-term impact than the grind of the climb. This makes reasons to sell all so much more obvious than those to buy most the time having investors leave gains on the table.

“You would think that keeping up with the market is as simple as buying an index fund and leaving it alone,” Batnick concluded in his post. “And it is that simple, but it isn’t that easy, because bad news smashes your face against an amplifier, while good news just plays quietly in the background.”

Stocks are up 495% in the past decade — here’s why you probably aren’t

 

[TommyIV]

The surplus of disappointing IPO's are giving analysts flash backs of the Dot-com crash days:

“Over-priced IPOs usually occur toward the end of a long bull run when stocks in general become very overpriced,” Lamensdorf wrote. “Why does this happen? Generally because investors have lost their sense of reality. They are willing to buy stocks on hyped stories instead of the facts.”

The last time this ‘clear danger sign’ flashed in the stock market was in 1999, and we all know what happened next

 

[TommyIV]

As the S&P 500 is trading at record prices today, hedge fund manager Ray Dalio is warning investors of not a coming market crash but rather a "great sag". The geopolitical and trade issues world wide are his focus for his claims.

Why the bull market won’t end with a typical crash, says hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio

Hedge fund manager Ray Dalio is now telling investors that "cash is trash'. Despite markets sitting at record highs and the steady ascent over the last few months, Ray Dalio now seems to think cash can still be put to work. Interestingly he was saying nearly the same thing right before the sell-off the last month of 2018.

Founder of world’s largest hedge fund says ‘cash is trash’ as the Dow soars to records

 

[TommyIV]

The coronavirus has given stock markets reason to sell-off some after relentless upside the past three months. Michael Wilson, a Morgan Stanley analysts expects more correction to come. However, he believes the Fed will do whats necessary to minimize the potential damage..

While near-term risks have increased, we think that corrections at the index level will be contained to 5 percent or less while the defensive skew outperforms both growth and cyclicals until rates show some signs of actually bottoming or hard data suggests the recovery will be more robust than we currently expect.

The first stock-market ‘correction since October has begun,’ says Morgan Stanley analyst who called 2018 tech rout

 

[TommyIV]

Ed Yardeni sees coronavirus as the possible tipping point threat to the bull market. The weakening of the global market due to the outbreak has Yardeni expecting at least a near term correction off stock indices highs.

Longtime bull says he’s sitting on cash ahead of a possible market correction

 

[TommyIV]

Goldman Sachs is bullish from here and urges its clients to position themselves for the coming rebound.

Here’s what Goldman Sachs is telling wealthy clients to do in this market

 

[rangerray]

[h=1]Goldman analyst who predicted the coronavirus would kill the bull market says ‘risk to the downside is greater’ despite Dow’s recent rally [/h]
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/g...te-dows-recent-rally-2020-04-07?mod=home-page

 

[TommyIV]

Great article out of Market Watch on what some big market players think about the recent run up on stock prices and whether they are sustainable.

Are investors driven by FOMO, or is a retest of the lows coming? Here’s what Wall Street strategists are saying about the stock-market outlook

 

[rangerray]

I think many of the high visibility analysts and other market gurus have said or have repeated a "retest of the lows is coming" for so long that they're afraid to lose face at this point. Of course, the market will eventually go down and afford them some cover, but with the economy reopening, I don't see any way that we could go lower than where we've already been. I mean, also in the back of a lot of folks minds is the fact that the market was hitting on all eight cylinders before the Chinese Virus showed up. Add to that, when we're fully open again, some sectors of the market are sure to surge. There's a lot of stored up energy out there. That has to count for something. As I've said before, we are not very patient.

As far as fundamentals go, have they really mattered much in the last decade? Our government seems to have a knack for shifting everything.

 

[TommyIV]

Bullish argument from Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson. He sees this pull back, which has slowed its momentum today, is just a consolidation of gains before the rally continues. In his view this is a great buying opportunity before markets resume their climb. Wilson points out that markets tend to rebound a quarter or two before the economy.

Buy in May? Analyst who called the March bottom says current pullback is just a bull-market pause

 

[TommyIV]

The dust may be settling from the pandemic economic demolition. Does that mean its time to buy or has that ship sailed? Not according Adam Button, an analyst from ForexLive. MarketWatch wrote an article named 'Three reasons why it's time to buy everything amid the madness' that was based on reasons given by Button.

Those three reasons: 1. We're entering a post pandemic world; 2. Deficit ceilings are now a thing of the past; and 3. Interest rates will be low for a long time.

Maybe looking very long-term these are all noteworthy. But this stuff is what investors have been already buying since late March.

The article even quotes Button saying "The enthusiasm in markets at the moment is bordering on euphoria" as a reason to jump on the bull train. So I'll finish with the same chart that Tom posts frequently.

Three reasons why it’s time to ‘buy everything’ amid the madness

 

[TommyIV]

Stocks pulled back today but that didn't muffle the grunt of the long time bull Jeffrey Saut. Saut was the MarketWatch call of the day with his claims stocks will end the year with new highs. From experience he categorizes to be in a secular bull market that has four to nine years left. The pandemic sell-off was a bear market blimp that are normal for these secular bull markets.

Saut also notes that while he sees new highs by the end of the year, a mid-June peak may be established before consolidation takes place and the markets roar towards new highs again.


Here’s the only thing investors need to know about the stock market right now, says 50-year veteran