Analyst Predictions

[TommyIV]

Tony Dwyer predicts an upcoming pullback that will be followed by a continuation of the bull market. He also shares an interesting take on the Federal Reserve's current mindset with interest rates and the economy.


[video]https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/07/22/pullback-underway-and-investors-should-buy-it-market-bull-tony-dwyer.html[/video]

 

[ToddB]

Great information here a good topic thanks!
TB


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[TommyIV]

Vincent Deluard is claiming the 'peak' of the bull market is coming with the 'peak' of millennials.

Market analyst ponders whether we’ve hit ‘peak FANG, peak Pot, peak millennials’

The struggles in FAANG stocks have analyst seeing the beginning of the end of Millennials dictating market trends and it is now Gen Z's time to shine. Very thought provoking. I am in the Millennial generation and I can agree by looking outward (though not inward) amongst my generation that we are losing our cool 'factor'. Friends are starting families and no one respectable my age is posting on the new hot social media Tik Tok… if you've ever heard of it.

So what companies will die with the end of the Millennials' reign and which will shift accordingly to take on Gen Z? And what new companies will take their place?

In my opinion, coming from what I see amongst people younger than me, when it comes to the FAANG names.. Amazon, Google, and Apple will persist while Facebook and Netflix will be left behind..

Its common knowledge amongst my peers that the social media platform Facebook is dying. One thing going for them is they own Instagram which is still 'hot'.

Netflix may not die but will likely leave the top seat as it has to continually compete; it will eventually lose like we saw in the numbers during its earnings report. It may not just lose to other movie streamers but to get the attention of the younger generation it is also competing against video games like Fortnite.

Thoughts?

What do you remember about past take overs of new generations in pop culture? What type of companies prevailed? How did the broad market react?

 

[tsptalk]

Thoughts?

What do you remember about past take overs of new generations in pop culture? What type of companies prevailed? How did the broad market react?

I still think My Space is going to make a comeback.

Napster was kind of a similar new thing (like social media), although they were more rebellious and tried to bypass the music industry and got run out of town. itunes took over but now streaming music is everywhere.

 

[TommyIV]

Is the stock market set up for another late-year nose dive?

More analysts say stocks are peaking. This time its not millennials or the Federal Reserve; it will be the European economy that will be the bull market's demise. Essentially the argument is stocks are currently overvalued, the weakening European economy will strengthen the dollar, stock prices will drop to match the higher valued currency which will trigger a broad sell off.

The bullish account of this article points out that while stocks are up impressively since the beginning of 2019, gains are less impressive since mid-2018. The late 20% correction of last year has skewed the outlook of the performance of stocks. Some indices, such as those that represent small cap companies, are off their highs and have room to grow from here. Earnings so far have been doing stock indices a favor so the economic outlook has yet to scare stock buyers.

 

[TommyIV]

Goldman vs Morgan ~ Bulls vs Bears

Analysts from the two giant investment banks see different futures for the same market.

Goldman Sachs foresee the bull market in the S&P 500 extending to at least the end of 2020.

JP Morgan's analysts say the current state of the market doesn't match their numbers and see a 'significant downside risk' for stock prices.

 

[tsptalk]

I guess that's what makes a market. Goldman can bid and JP Morgan can ask, and if they agree on a price, we have a trade. Let the fun begin. opcorn:

 

[TommyIV]

Morgan Stanley analysts warn of a global recession in 3 quarters if Trump imposes 25% tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods.

 

[TommyIV]

Nomura macro macro strategists says this bounce is a selling opportunity in front of a larger sell-off..

..we would expect any near-term rally to be no more than a head fake, and think that any such rally would be best treated as an opportunity to sell in preparation for the second wave of volatility that we expect will arrive in late August or early September. We would add here that the second wave may well hit harder than the first, like an aftershock that eclipses the initial earthquake. At this point, we think it would be a mistake to dismiss the possibility of a Lehman-like shock as a mere tail risk.

Brace for a 2nd wave in stock-market volatility — and this one could be ‘Lehman-like,’ says Nomura

 

[TommyIV]

Investment manager Mark Mobius sees stock markets rising if central banks continue to cut rates. The Fed is expected to cut rates again in September sparking new stimulus while stocks are currently cheaper than they were during the last rate cut.

Central banks ‘racing to the bottom’ means one thing, says Mark Mobius: that the stock market will do ‘very well’

 

[TommyIV]

Morgan Stanley continues to cry bear. Morgan Stanley strategists Mike Wilson claims stocks will fall more with the Fed losing market faith and Trump nowhere near a deal with China.

Mike Wilson also discredits the bulls victory in the strong consumer market. He claims the consumer and the job market are always the last to go.

Stocks could fall another 8% as ‘Trump put’ and ‘Fed put’ expire, says Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson

 

[TommyIV]

Stock prices regained some ground today in response to the sell off on Friday, yet CNBC published another bear cry. Analysts from Nomura are calling for a sell-off with the same caliber as December's sell-off as soon as a week. The market is vulnerable to big swings right now with the lower volume trading this time of year.

A sell-off worse than December can arrive in a week, says analyst who is predicting ‘Lehman-like’ drop

 

[TommyIV]

Long-term charts out of Ned Davis Research suggest stocks are overpriced and households are fully invested. These charts undermine the scarce plausibility of a continuation of the bull market. That's not to say these charts give ground to a recession or a major market sell-off. But reasons to keep buying are dwindling as we hit the boundaries of long-term trends (since 1928), we see cash levels are lower than normal, we're surrounded by the multitudes of uncertainty coming into an election year, and all the while predictions of a coming recession get louder every day. The take home message is not to retreat to the G-fund or cash for good, but to pay attention.

Think individual investors are set to power stocks to new highs? Think again, says Ned Davis

 

[nasa1974]

The take home message is not to retreat to the G-fund or cash for good, but to pay attention.

Think individual investors are set to power stocks to new highs? Think again, says Ned Davis

That actually is some great information, but with 2 IFT's a month it's difficult to not want to run to G and then be wary of getting out of G. Paying attention doesn't help when you are out of moves. Just saying.

 

[TommyIV]

That actually is some great information, but with 2 IFT's a month it's difficult to not want to run to G and then be wary of getting out of G. Paying attention doesn't help when you are out of moves. Just saying.

Fair point. And to that, I've been in the G-fund for most of the year as far as the auto tracker (although I mostly trade ETFs). But if your goal is to maximize your return then you have to be able to leave comfort when faced with opportunity.

The F-fund for instance outperformed all TSP funds in August due to the demand across the globe for a reasonable yield. And the C and S-fund have been fluctuating in a trading channel that exposing just part of your account for a day or two during the bounce off support could have added more than 0.5% or more than if you stayed in G-fund all month.

I mean to say pay attention for opportunity. But I agree with the importance of protecting capital and the power to choose not to invest at any particular moment.

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[TommyIV]

The S&P 500 is just off its highs and the bears are growling. The S&P 500 closed over 3000 today but according to Deutsche Bank's chief global strategist Binky Chadha, the index is really valued at around 2600.

Chadha didn't leave the recession chant that was particularly loud last month. In this article points to another recession indicator: U.S. jobs growth which was last published as being at 1.3%...

Every time payrolls growth has gone below 1%, the U.S. has ended up in recession. We would argue the U.S. economy is dangerously close to...tipping into recession

The S&P 500 should be 13% lower because a recession is coming, warns Deutsche Bank

 

[TommyIV]

Hold on to your seats, historical tendencies have investors looking on to a volatile October. Whatever the direction may be, October seems to be pushed around more easily than other months. Analysts who respect the past say prepare for the same. Caution predictions that use the past to predict the future. Self fulfilling prophecies may be the greatest credence to the forecast. But logically nothing tells us that the future will resemble the past. September was forecasted to be the worst performing month for stocks yet the month ended with more than 2% gains.

Don’t expect calm markets in October, historically a month for wild swings

 

[TommyIV]

Hold on to your seats, historical tendencies have investors looking on to a volatile October. Whatever the direction may be, October seems to be pushed around more easily than other months. Analysts who respect the past say prepare for the same. Caution predictions that use the past to predict the future. Self fulfilling prophecies may be the greatest credence to the forecast. But logically nothing tells us that the future will resemble the past. September was forecasted to be the worst performing month for stocks yet the month ended with more than 2% gains.

Don’t expect calm markets in October, historically a month for wild swings

First three days of the month have upheld to the October reputation. Even the first hour of trading today has been quite eventful. A disappointing service sector report sent the indices in a free fall at the open only to bounce and wipe more than half those early gains. Where will this oscillating market stabilize today?

 

[TommyIV]

As the S&P 500 is trading at record prices today, hedge fund manager Ray Dalio is warning investors of not a coming market crash but rather a "great sag". The geopolitical and trade issues world wide are his focus for his claims.

[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Tahoma,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]Why the bull market won’t end with a typical crash, says hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio [/FONT]

 

[TommyIV]

Recession fears have spiked since the late 2018 sell off. Investors and economist are waiting for the catalyst that usually isn't obvious to everyone. Just with the housing bubble in 2008, the signs were obvious to everyone after the fact yet pointed out by few before. Well strategists Joseph Zidle is currently pointing at the sovereign debt market and sees trouble coming soon...

[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Tahoma,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]The “mother of all bubbles” in the sovereign debt market, Zidle says, is the catalyst that will likely trigger the next recession. He expects that to happen between mid-2020 and the end of 2021.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Tahoma,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]The ‘mother of all bubbles’ could blow up the economy if profits don’t improve, warns Blackstone strategist [/FONT]