Alternate LMBF methods

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Here are the returns through April:

[TABLE="width: 680"]
[TR="bgcolor: #87CEFA"][TD][/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD][TD]C[/TD]
[TD]S[/TD]
[TD]I[/TD]
[TD]LMBF-1[/TD]
[TD]C>S[/TD]
[TD]CI>S[/TD][TD]SIM[/TD]
[TD]G>F[/TD]
[/TR][TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF9A9A"]Jan[/TD]
[TD]0.20%[/TD]
[TD]0.23%[/TD]

[TD]1.90%[/TD][TD]2.16%[/TD][TD]2.89%[/TD]
[TD]2.89%[/TD][TD]2.89%[/TD][TD]2.16%[/TD][TD]2.89%[/TD][TD]2.89%[/TD]


[/TR][TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF9A9A"]Feb[/TD]
[TD]0.18%[/TD][TD]0.71%[/TD]
[TD]3.97%[/TD][TD]2.45%[/TD][TD]1.44%[/TD]
[TD]1.44%[/TD][TD]1.44%[/TD][TD]2.45%[/TD][TD]1.44%[/TD][TD]1.44%[/TD]

[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF9A9A"]Mar[/TD]
[TD]0.20%[/TD]

[TD](0.01%)[/TD][TD]0.12%[/TD]

[TD](0.08%)[/TD][TD]2.85%[/TD]

[TD]0.12%[/TD][TD](0.08%)[/TD]
[TD](0.08%)[/TD][TD]0.12%[/TD][TD]0.12%[/TD]

[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF9A9A"]Apr[/TD]
[TD]0.20%[/TD][TD]0.81%[/TD]
[TD]1.03%[/TD][TD]1.15%[/TD][TD]2.62%[/TD][TD]2.62%[/TD][TD]2.62%[/TD]

[TD]1.15%[/TD][TD]2.62%[/TD][TD]2.62%[/TD]



[/TR][TR="bgcolor: #9AFF9A"]
[TD]YTD[/TD]
[TD]0.78%[/TD]
[TD]1.75%[/TD]
[TD]7.16%[/TD][TD]5.78%[/TD][TD]10.16%[/TD]
[TD]7.23%[/TD][TD]7.02%[/TD][TD]5.78%[/TD][TD]7.23%[/TD][TD]7.23%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Looks like CI>S is falling behind with the S Fund this year as the I Fund out performs.
 
Well, it's quite clear that the I Fund will be the winner again for May.

That being the case, all our methods stay where they are at for another month.
 
Had a great month! Glad we're staying put as I was out of town and couldn't have been able to interfund transfer. Thanks Cactus!
 
Well, it looks like the S Fund will be the winner for June. That being the case the following IFT's will take place before noon eastern Friday, June 30, 2017. That will put you in the new fund on Monday for July.

  • LMBF-1 Changes from the I Fund to the S Fund
  • LMBF-1 SIM Stays in the F Fund until November
  • LMBF-1 C>S Changes from the I Fund to the S Fund
  • LMBF-1 CI>S Remains in the S Fund
  • LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the I Fund to the S Fund

In case you are interested in the historical data of July winners, this is how they break down for the last 16 years:
[TABLE="width: 200"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]S[/TD]
[TD]I[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jul[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

So the F Fund tends to take July winning more than a 3rd of the time. On the other hand, if July is a good month for equities the S Fund is twice as likely to win as the I or C Fund.
 
Here are the returns through the first half of the year:


[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"] G [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"] F [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"] C [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"] S [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"] I [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"] LMBF-1 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"] C>S [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"] CI>S [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"] SIM [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: center"] G>F [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"] Jan [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.20% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.23% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 1.90% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 2.16% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 2.89% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 2.89% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 2.89% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 2.16% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 2.89% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 2.89% [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"] Feb [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.18% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.71% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 3.97% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 2.45% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 1.44% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 1.44% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 1.44% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 2.45% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 1.44% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 1.44% [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"] Mar [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.20% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.01%)
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.12%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.08%)
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 2.85% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.12% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.08%)
 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.08%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.12% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.12% [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"] Apr [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.20% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.81% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 1.03% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 1.15% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 2.62% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 2.62% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 2.62% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 1.15% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 2.62% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 2.62% [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"] May [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.19% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.81% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 1.41% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.77%)
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 3.76% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 3.76% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 3.76% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.77%)
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.81% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 3.76% [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"] Jun [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.19% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.09%)
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.62% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 2.33% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.18%)
 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.18%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.18%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 2.33%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.09%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (0.18%)
[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: left"] YTD [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] 1.17% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] 2.48% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] 9.34% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] 7.41% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] 14.10% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] 11.06% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] 10.84% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] 7.41% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] 8.01% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] 11.06% [/TD]

The I Fund lost for June but continues to lead for the year. Our methods are behind the I Fund but tend to outperform the rest of the Funds. This year we can see among the various methods that it doesn't pay to bet against the I Fund or the C Fund. CI>S is the worst performing of our methods. It has been in the S Fund all year and lost out for avoiding the C & I Funds. Even SIM is falling behind this year because of avoiding the market in May & June. So far at least it has payed to remain fully invested in the market.
 
Here is the monthly return as of July 28, 2017:


[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: left"] Date [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] G FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] F FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] C FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] S FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: center"] I FUND [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99, align: left"] 28-Jul-17 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] 0.17% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] 0.43% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] 2.13% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: left"] 1.29% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CC00, align: right"] 2.61% [/TD]
The best fund is I so the following IFTs take place before noon Monday, July 31, 2017.

  • LMBF-1 Changes from the S Fund to the I Fund
  • LMBF-1 SIM Remains in the F Fund till November
  • LMBF-1 C>S Changes from the S Fund to the I Fund
  • LMBF-1 CI>S Remains in the S Fund
  • LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the S Fund to the I Fund
 
We will have to wait for the final numbers tonight, but as of today's close the F Fund is our winner for August. That being the case, the following IFT's will take place before noon eastern tomorrow, Aug 31, 2017.

•LMBF-1 Changes from the I Fund to the F Fund
•LMBF-1 SIM Remains in the F Fund till November
•LMBF-1 C>S Changes from the I Fund to the F Fund
•LMBF-1 CI>S Changes from the S Fund to the F Fund
•LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the I Fund to the F Fund
 
Here is the monthly return as of Sep 28, 2017:


[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99"] Date [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99"] G FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99"] F FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99"] C FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99"] S FUND [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99"] I FUND [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FFFF99"] 28-Sep-17 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] 0.16% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] 0.47% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] 1.69% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CC00, align: right"] 3.98% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"] 1.97% [/TD]
The best fund is S so the following IFTs take place before noon tomorrow, Sep 29, 2017.


  • LMBF-1 Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
  • LMBF-1 SIM Remains in the F Fund till November
  • LMBF-1 C>S Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
  • LMBF-1 CI>S Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
  • LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
 
I'm behind again on getting my interfund transfer in.... need life to calm down for a while... and thanks cactus for keeping this up!
 
As we approach the end of the month, the move out of the I fund to the S fund was a good move.. the C Fund was better but we get a gain instead of a loss.

I posted about this in a thread in the retirement forum... I retired about 4 1/2 years ago. I was 52 years old but because of my job, ATC, I could withdraw early from my TSP account without penalty under IRS rule 72t. I elected monthly payments that TSP calculates, the formula is based on life expectancy, Fed Fund rate and your account balance at the beginning of every year. Using the LMBF-1 method, my account balance is higher now than when I retired. No contributions, just a monthly withdrawal but my return is higher than the withdrawal amount. Happy me!
 
It looks like the winner for October is the C Fund. That being the case, the following IFTs take place before noon tomorrow, Oct 31, 2017.

  • LMBF-1 Changes from the S Fund to the C Fund
  • LMBF-1 SIM Changes from the F Fund to the C Fund
  • LMBF-1 C>S Remains in the S Fund
  • LMBF-1 CI>S Remains in the S Fund
  • LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the S Fund to the C Fund
 
It looks like the winner for November is the S Fund. That being the case, the following IFTs take place before noon tomorrow, Nov 30, 2017.

  • LMBF-1 Changes from the C Fund to the S Fund
  • LMBF-1 SIM Changes from the C Fund to the S Fund
  • LMBF-1 C>S Remains in the S Fund
  • LMBF-1 CI>S Remains in the S Fund
  • LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the C Fund to the S Fund
 
It looks like the winner for December is the C Fund. That being the case, the following IFTs take place before noon tomorrow, Dec 29, 2017.

  • LMBF-1 Changes from the S Fund to the C Fund
  • LMBF-1 SIM Changes from the S Fund to the C Fund
  • LMBF-1 C>S Remains in the S Fund
  • LMBF-1 CI>S Remains in the S Fund
  • LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the S Fund to the C Fund

Are you feeling whipsawed between the C & S Funds? :smile:
 
Here are the returns for 2017:

[table="width: 700"]
[tr][td]Date[/td][td]G[/td][td]F[/td][td]C[/td][td]S[/td][td]I[/td]
[td]LMBF-1[/td][td]C>S[/td][td]CI>S[/td][td]SIM[/td][td]G>F[/td]
[/tr]
[tr][td]Jan[/td]
[td]0.20%[/td][td]0.23%[/td][td]1.90%[/td][td]2.16%[/td][td]2.89%[/td]
[td]2.89%[/td][td]2.89%[/td][td]2.16%[/td][td]2.89%[/td][td]2.89%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr][td]Feb[/td]
[td]0.18%[/td][td]0.71%[/td][td]3.97%[/td][td]2.45%[/td][td]1.44%[/td]
[td]1.44%[/td][td]1.44%[/td][td]2.45%[/td][td]1.44%[/td][td]1.44%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr][td]Mar[/td]
[td]0.20%[/td][td](0.01%)[/td]
[td]0.12%[/td][td](0.08%)[/td][td]2.85%[/td]
[td]0.12%[/td][td](0.08%)[/td]
[td](0.08%)[/td][td]0.12%[/td][td]0.12%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr][td]Apr[/td]
[td]0.20%[/td][td]0.81%[/td][td]1.03%[/td][td]1.15%[/td][td]2.62%[/td]
[td]2.62%[/td][td]2.62%[/td][td]1.15%[/td][td]2.62%[/td][td]2.62%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr][td]May[/td]
[td]0.19%[/td][td]0.81%[/td][td]1.41%[/td]
[td](0.77%)[/td][td]3.76%[/td]
[td]3.76%[/td][td]3.76%[/td]
[td](0.77%)[/td][td].81%[/td][td]3.76%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr][td]Jun[/td]
[td]0.19%[/td][td](0.09%)[/td][td]0.62%[/td]
[td]2.33%[/td][td](0.18%)[/td]
[td](0.18%)[/td][td](0.18%)[/td]
[td]2.33%[/td]
[td](0.09%)[/td][td](0.18%)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr][td]Jul[/td]
[td]0.19%[/td][td]0.43%[/td][td]2.05%[/td][td]1.11%[/td][td]2.88%[/td]
[td]1.11%[/td][td]1.11%[/td][td]1.11%[/td][td]0.43%[/td][td]1.11%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr][td]Aug[/td]
[td]0.19%[/td][td]0.91%[/td][td]0.30%[/td]
[td](0.41%)[/td][td](0.03%)[/td]
[td](0.03%)[/td][td](0.03%)[/td]
[td](0.41%)[/td][td]0.91%[/td]
[td](0.03%)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr][td]Sep[/td]
[td]0.17%[/td][td](0.48%)[/td][td]2.06%[/td]
[td]4.26%[/td][td]2.52%[/td][td](0.48%)[/td]
[td](0.48%)[/td][td](0.48%)[/td]
[td](0.48%)[/td][td](0.48%)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr][td]Oct[/td]
[td]0.19%[/td][td]0.07%[/td][td]2.33%[/td][td]1.41%[/td][td]1.54%[/td]
[td]1.41%[/td][td]1.41%[/td][td]1.41%[/td][td]0.07%[/td][td]1.41%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr][td]Nov[/td]
[td]0.19%[/td][td](0.11%)[/td]
[td]3.07%[/td][td]2.90%[/td][td]1.06%[/td]
[td]3.07%[/td][td]2.90%[/td][td]2.90%[/td][td]3.07%[/td][td]3.07%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr][td]Dec[/td]
[td]0.19%[/td][td]0.48%[/td][td]1.11%[/td][td]0.47%[/td][td]1.60%[/td]
[td]0.47%[/td][td]0.47%[/td][td]0.47%[/td][td]0.47%[/td][td]0.47%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr][td]YTD[/td]
[td]2.33%[/td][td]3.82%[/td][td]21.82%[/td][td]18.22%[/td][td]25.42%[/td]
[td]17.32%[/td][td]16.90%[/td][td]12.85%[/td][td]12.89%[/td][td]17.32%[/td]
[/tr][/table]
None of our methods beat any of the equity funds but they all produced decent annual returns. LMBF-1 performed best this year due to the C Fund outperforming the S Fund. CI>S was the worst performer due to greater amount of time it spent in the S Fund.
 
Whipsawed? Naaa I've been riding the S fund with C>S... ok, we didn't beat staying in one of the equity funds but a 16.90% return is still fantastic. My account went up despite taking a monthly annuity. I think where these methods really do well is in protecting your account from large losses in down years. They will occur but staying ahead of the game is key.
 
The C Fund is the winner for January.

That being the case, all our methods stay where they are at for another month.
 
The two day dump in equities made me nervous... have to stop myself and say, "stay with the program". It's just some selling by big firms locking in some profit. <just breathe>
 
I did make a move tho... I've been LMBF-1 C>S.. decided with the C Fund generally rising higher than The S Fund recently, I moved to the C Fund. It will probably stop doing that but, cie le vie.
 
The day the first dump took place I decided it was time.. the correction is about to hit so I bailed into the G Fund. I lost 6% by the time the transfer went through but seeing funds losing 8-10% I'm feeling good about the move. And another down day coming today.. I'll sit on the sidelines for a while.
 
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