AircrewChief's Account Talk

[craigerv]

This action is often called a one day wonder. Nothing to be concerned about.

A one day wonder that happens often? Are you a fan of Yogi Berra, Birchtree?

 

[jpcavin]

I understand. I meant going full I Fund, which, I was considering.


I'm still not saying "sticky pants" under any circumstances. The imagery is just too horrible.

You might try wearing culottes instead. Birchtree wears them all the time. He ain't shy.

Welcome aboard Chief

PS1 Ret.

 

[AircrewChief]

You might try wearing culottes instead. Birchtree wears them all the time. He ain't shy.

Welcome aboard Chief

PS1 Ret.

I could go with culottes, but then I'd also need a powdered wig, waistcoat, and breeches. It's always the accessories that get you.

 

[jpcavin]

I could go with culottes, but then I'd also need a powdered wig, waistcoat, and breeches. It's always the accessories that get you.

Don't forget the pumps

 

[AircrewChief]

Russia, emerging markets rebound post Crimea

 

[AircrewChief]

The education continues. I am slowly becoming less and less convinced that technical trading of indices / ETFs under the limitations of TSP is possible. Does anyone know of comprehensive studies done on the ability of pure technical analysis to predict markets?

 

[Birchtree]

Technical analysis does not predict the future - it cannot see around corners but it does let you look in the rear view mirror. I've posted many articles and opinions on the fundamental approach of buy and hold to the point of being tendentious. Time in the market can be more rewarding than timing the markets. You just have to find your own technique and it's a process of knowledge.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

The education continues. I am slowly becoming less and less convinced that technical trading of indices / ETFs under the limitations of TSP is possible. Does anyone know of comprehensive studies done on the ability of pure technical analysis to predict markets?

You've come to that conclusion after being here less than a month? :suspicious: I'm not sure what ETFs and TSP limitations have to do with one another because they are two totally different things. ETFs don't have TSP limitations. Trading by technical analysis can work, but just like trading on fundamentals, seasonality, historical patterns, the moon, crystal balls or Birchtree's cat, they won't work all the time, but buying and holding doesn't work all the time either. As traders, one main goal should be to have more positive trades than negative trades and to not lose money in the end. "The end" means different things to different people, but to most, I think "the end" means the end of the year.

Anyway, to answer your question, I've been told that study after study shows that trading systems don't beat buying and holding over time. My personally feeling on the matter can best be quoted by George Bernard Shaw:

“People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.”

 

[AircrewChief]

You've come to that conclusion after being here less than a month? :suspicious: I'm not sure what ETFs and TSP limitations have to do with one another because they are two totally different things. ETFs don't have TSP limitations. Trading by technical analysis can work, but just like trading on fundamentals, seasonality, historical patterns, the moon, crystal balls or Birchtree's cat, they won't work all the time, but buying and holding doesn't work all the time either. As traders, one main goal should be to have more positive trades than negative trades and to not lose money in the end. "The end" means different things to different people, but to most, I think "the end" means the end of the year.

Anyway, to answer your question, I've been told that study after study shows that trading systems don't beat buying and holding over time. My personally feeling on the matter can best be quoted by George Bernard Shaw:

“People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.”

While I may be new to this forum, I'll assure you that I didn't begin using logic and reasoning the day I signed up for tsptalk.com

Perhaps you are misinterpreting my statement. I have probably used ETF's incorrectly, when I generally meant the TSP "funds". I am certain there are many successful traders using technical analysis, but as you said, no method will work all of the time. My point is that the limitations of TSP (small number of funds, 2 IFT's per month) make things much more difficult. In a game, an advantage of even 1% will mean that over enough time and repetitions, one player will come ahead. As you said, a trader is aiming for more positive trades than negative ones. My frustration is not with technical analysis, per se, but with the limited number of trades I am able to make. I am sure this is nothing that you don't already know.

My question about studies on trading systems was not meant as a slight against anyone or their methodology. I just ask out of curiosity. My apologies if I touched a nerve.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

While I may be new to this forum, I'll assure you that I didn't begin using logic and reasoning the day I signed up for tsptalk.com

Perhaps you are misinterpreting my statement. I have probably used ETF's incorrectly, when I generally meant the TSP "funds". I am certain there are many successful traders using technical analysis, but as you said, no method will work all of the time. My point is that the limitations of TSP (small number of funds, 2 IFT's per month) make things much more difficult. In a game, an advantage of even 1% will mean that over enough time and repetitions, one player will come ahead. As you said, a trader is aiming for more positive trades than negative ones. My frustration is not with technical analysis, per se, but with the limited number of trades I am able to make. I am sure this is nothing that you don't already know.

My question about studies on trading systems was not meant as a slight against anyone or their methodology. I just ask out of curiosity. My apologies if I touched a nerve.

You didn't touch my nerve and I don't use just technical analysis to make my decisions, I use several different methodologies with my particular system. Yes, TSP makes it difficult, but just a percent or two each month is all it takes to get where we all want to go. Where there's a will there's a way. Besides, back when TSP had unlimited trades, a lot of people over traded and it really hurt their returns.

Good luck with your future returns Chief!

 

[Birchtree]

What Do I Do With My Stocks If The Market Crashes? Part 1 [Citigroup Inc, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo & Co, 3M Co, The Clorox Co, VF Corp] - Seeking Alpha

 

[AircrewChief]

Went 50% I, 50% F at COB today. 1 IFT remaining for April.