Agg @ 104.47

Currently allocated 75% G, 25% F

In a previous blog I made a case for AGG @ the 104.03 white line being an area of key resistance. Now that we've had 8 closes above that level on the Daily charts, I'm ready to start watching the next higher level @ 104.47 the yellow line.




Looking at the Daily charts I'd favor a pullback. as you can see, we closed at the top of the asending trendline last Friday. For September, overall volume has been on the decline. Another interesting tidbit, going back to June, AGG has not had more than 3 down days in a row!




Remember the 104.03 white line? On the weekly charts, we have our first close above this level.




As we're wrapping up the end of September I'm expecting AGG to trade inversely to the S&P 500 the majority of the time. If 1240 on the S&P 500 breaks, then I'll make a full exit to the G-Fund in hopes of exiting the F-Fund at the top of the price channel.

Good luck and thanks for reading... JTH

 

[matrix54]

Energy dept release Sept 09; World Bank Global report Sept 09:

:notrust:Global oil demand will collapse next year and commodities will not return to the highs they reached this summer in the foreseeable future, two authoritative reports said on Tuesday as they forecast a long and painful worldwide recession.
The stark conclusions came as the World Bank's chief economist predicted that the world faced "the worst recession since the Great Depression".
The US energy department said global oil demand will fall this year and next, marking the first two consecutive years' decline in 30 years.
"The increasing likelihood of a prolonged global economic downturn continues to dominate market perceptions, putting downward pressure on oil prices," it said, forecasting that demand would drop 50,000 barrels a day this year and a hefty 450,000 b/d in 2009. US oil demand will drop next year to the lowest level in 11 years.
Meanwhile, the World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report said the commodities boom of the past five years - which drove up prices 130 per cent - had "come to an end".