7/31/12
The losses were minor but the stocks indices were down for the 9th consecutive Monday. The Dow gave up 3-points, the S&P was down less than 1-point, and the Nasdaq shed 12. Not bad considering the nearly 400-point gain in the Dow over the prior two days.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD] +0.012%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD] +0.27%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD] - 0.04%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD] - 0.39%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD] +0.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
It was a slow day on light volume that did little to effect the chart except that we saw the S&P 500 fail to make a move above the rising resistance. The uptrend is intact, but the top of the trading range could pose a problem for the short-term, unless some news / event can help it breakout above the resistance.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps of the Russell 2000 are close to filling the 2nd open gap, but there are a couple of conjoining resistance lines crossing near the 800 level: One rising. One declining.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar has a large open gap overhead (red), and after falling below a rising parallel trading channel (blue), a bounce to test th lower support line would fill that gap. The 50-day EMA acted as support but with all the talk of QE3, the dollar should be under some pressure.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
If the dollar does rally and fill that open gap, we'd likely see a pullback in stocks. Otherwise, the QE3 talk and the boost in the euro from the Darghi pep-talk will see the dollar break below the 50-day EMA, and the rally in stocks would likely continue. We'll see.
The sentiment indicators are all over the place and I have no real grasp of what to make of it. Both the smart and the dumb money of the put / call ratios are in a very bullish position - which would be bearish for stocks. The AAII sentiment survey is showing very bearish sentiment - which is bullish for stocks. The Investor's Intelligence survey is very bullish, which would be bearish for stocks., etc. Get the picture? It's confusing.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html
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