A message for the Bears

You don’t tug on Superman’s cape, you don’t spit into the wind, you don’t pull the mask off the old Lone Ranger, and you don’t trade against the trend.

I’ve seen some bearish one-liners thrown all over the net today. They say things like “this is a suckers rally, only a fool would jump in at the top.” Well I hope they all choke on their crow. They must have said the same thing in March as they continued to desperately double-down on their losing short positions. Just like our famous Birchtree likes to say, “When the next bull leg comes you will be willing to pay whatever price the market offers.” You will be pushing old ladies out of the way, kicking seeing-eye dogs, and steeling lollipops from babies to get into this market. But by the time you’ve realized that, it may be too late.
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That will be when the bears throw in the towel and buy at the top. The Bears should understand there is a difference between buying at the top verses buying into strength. I went into the I-fund today because the markets proved that they deserve to have my money, therefore I’m buying into strength. It wasn’t like it just snuck up on us, if you read my blog last night I showed numerous examples, I was just waiting for a higher high.
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We could stay bullish until August, just like in 2003. The dollar is getting weak, while the markets, gold & oil are getting strong. Luckily for me, my aversion for risk is low. If I’m proven wrong, so be it I’ll move on, but not until this market proves it’s ready to roll over.

God bless whats left of America...


A close above the 200 MA.



A close above the 200 MA.



A close above a very dominant trendline



$Tran is within striking distance of the 200 MA.



The desending triangle has been broken.

 

[Birchtree]

You see that gap at 1100 on the SPX? That's where we are headed. And perhaps real soon.

 

[Bullitt]

First time breaking the 200 DMA in what, 358 days?

It's safe to say that the ones who said this was a sucker's rally were wrong. They struck out looking. All one has to do who's been in this rally since March needs to do is set a few stops and they've still made money.

 

[JTH]

You see that gap at 1100 on the SPX? That's where we are headed. And perhaps real soon.

Right now I'm looking for 1015, but I'll take your 1100

 

[JTH]

First time breaking the 200 DMA in what, 358 days?

It's safe to say that the ones who said this was a sucker's rally were wrong. They struck out looking. All one has to do who's been in this rally since March needs to do is set a few stops and they've still made money.

Yes, I wholeheartitly agree, I sure wish we could place stops on our TSPs, that would rock. Then I'd increase the stop until I got floated out of the markets.

 

[Boghie]

I don't really know how to read the charts, but here goes.

I used that Yahoo S&P thangy and generated 60, 180, and 360 SMA lines. The 60 day line simply follows the panic around.

The 180, 360 day lines seem to be far more realistic. They reflect, but smooth out, the panic. The nice thing is that the 360 average dumps at a 30% decline in the market as of today. The 180 day dumps us at a 40% dump from the highs. Thus, both those averages leave us in a severe market crash - but, not Great Depression II. Personally, I think we all want to live in the 'Greatest Generation' or whatever - but, we probably live in more normal times than the Okies of the Dust Bowl.

And, by severe market blow off standards this thang is getting long on tooth.

So, unless we are God Chosen Red Headed Children we should move through the -30% mark to something higher. That is, to a point of a -30% correction at the 20+ month mark. And, viola, that leaves us at the 1100 mark mentioned above. Something I have been looking at recently.

Nice analysis, eh.

More like, I ain't got a clue so I am going to shut up now. The market will probably embarrass me tomorrow. It has a way of doing that, eh.