A Market Forecast That Says ‘Take Cover’

[FutureMan]

Hi, everyone. I've attempted reading the many forum rules but was unable to find a rule regarding posting URL links. Is this a violation? Hopefully not because I am very curious to hear forum members' thoughts regarding this article: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/04/your-money/04stra.html?_r=2&pagewanted=1&ref=hom

I am in no way a financial guru. Far from it... I simply do my best with the limited time I have and occasionally check how the market is doing, my TSP, Roth IRA, etc. I have many family members and friends who devote a significant amount of time researching market trends. MANY of my family members, friends and coworkers have come forward recently and have essentially said, "Be careful." Reading this article prompted me to become a TSP Talk Forum Member.

I fully understand Robert Prechter is on the complete opposite end of the spectrum as compared to many financial analysts/gurus. However, what do you all think? With consideration of Prechter's advice to move to cash equivalents, any new advice on how to allocate funds for the long-term? Would it be it wise to move to the G Fund now, anticipate a market hit, and move back into the C and S Funds when the market is much lower? Thus making only two transactions, as opposed to daily transactions, in attempt to essentially time the "big" market swing.

I simply don't know... But then again, if we all knew, we'd all be rich.

Thanks, everyone.

 

[nnuut]

You did well, no problem!!
Norman

 

[Birchtree]

Please remember that bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gun shy and keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend. According to the weekly survey by AAII bearish sentiment has risen to 57.7%. This is the highest level since March 2009, surpasing the peaks of Last November and July. It was at 70% in January 2009. Stay negative and you won't loose any money - step up and take some pain and you'll make some money. It boils down to individual decisions. I think both the death cross and the current head and shoulders pattern is pure nonsense - but then again I invest on the contrarian side of the fence.

 

[tsptalk]

Hi, everyone. I've attempted reading the many forum rules but was unable to find a rule regarding posting URL links. Is this a violation? Hopefully not because I am very curious to hear forum members' thoughts regarding this article:

Thanks and welcome Zeke! I will read the article.

By the way, here is the rule regarding posting info from other sites:

14. Please do not copy entire articles from other publications unless the author grants specifically permission. (Simply cut and paste excerpts, "preferably in quotes", and always add the link to the source of the article. That way if anyone wants to finish the article, they can find it, and the authors get a hit on their website. Otherwise we (you too) risk being accused of copyright infringement. We may choose to delete any posts that don't abide.

More on the rules

 

[tsptalk]

I think both the death cross and the current head and shoulders pattern is pure nonsense - but then again I invest on the contrarian side of the fence.

How'd that work out for you in 2007-2008? :blink:

If history is any indicator, raising at least a little cash on rallies here is not a bad idea.

 

[Birchtree]

Every now and then the hoof gets caught in the bear trap - it's all part of the game. I survived with my base intact for the bear market and loaded up the truck for the return ride. Held my TSP for dollar cost averaging all the way. I think we will rally back to previous highs and beyond. Moving up pretty quickly will fan the fires.

 

[Bullitt]

The problem with Prechter, as Birchtree knows, is that that he has been overly bearish on a consistent basis. These guys are heralded as heroes when their prophecies reign, but for the most part he's been wrong. If he was so good, he wouldn't have to lobby so hard to sell his newsletter. Every investing page I go to is, "Click here for free Elliot Wave report on the crash".

I think Prechter did buy into this rally, but he sold way too early, like July 2009. But I could be wrong.

Nonetheless, you can't disregard that 50/200 cross.